PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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latenlazy

Brigadier
People need to stop looking to Ukraine as if it offers any definitive strategic lessons for Taiwan. Ukraine has a massive amount of territory that allows them to store a huge amount capacity to surge and regenerate force columns, *especially* since that capacity is directly connected to an actively supportive Europe along a flank Russia cannot touch. No such conditions or capabilities exists for Taiwan. Everyone talks about tactics while forgetting to account for mass. The mass difference between China and Taiwan is many many multiples the mass difference between Russia and Ukraine.

For example I saw someone above mention how easy it was to hide weapons for beach landings but if you want to be able to field the mass of firepower needed to defeat the landing the quantities of massed force on the defensive line cannot be hidden and will be easily visible to aerial surveillance and counterattack. Please do not in the process of discussing tactical abstractions forget to account for the real physical quantities that will decide how a fight actually plays out.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
latenlazy said:
People need to stop looking to Ukraine as if it offers any definitive strategic lessons for Taiwan. Ukraine has a massive amount of territory that allows them to store a huge amount capacity to surge and regenerate force columns, *especially* since that capacity is directly connected to an actively supportive Europe along a flank Russia cannot touch. No such conditions or capabilities exists for Taiwan. Everyone talks about tactics while forgetting to account for mass. The mass difference between China and Taiwan is many many multiples the mass difference between Russia and Ukraine.
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Fair enough on Ukraine strategic depth vs. Taiwan, my point is as game changing as FPV drones and fiber optic drones are in the battle field (which I agree, they are game changing), the second order consequences in terms of territorial change since their introduction has not been as large as their expected strategic impact. Since their introduction in the past year or so, it's still a virtual stalemate territorially with small changes here and there, but perhaps this is more due to the rate limited production capacity of fiber optic drones. If China goes this route, it needs industrial scale to really make a difference in territorial map.
 
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PLAwatcher12

Junior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
Fair enough on Ukraine strategic depth vs. Taiwan, my point is as game changing as FPV drones and fiber optic drones are in the battle field (which I agree, they are game changing), the second order consequences in terms of territorial change since their introduction has not been as large as their expected strategic impact. Since their introduction in the past year or so, it's still a virtual stalemate territorially with small changes here and there, but perhaps this is more due to the rate limited production capacity of fiber optic drones. If China goes this route, it needs industrial scale to really make a difference in territorial map.
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China has the industrial scale to do that, that no other country on earth currently has besides China, if China is in war their peacetime production will increase a lot and plus China has DJI too
 
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