PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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Any idea how the ROCN Yiyang responded to the PLANS Huaibei's warm holiday greetings?
That would partially explain the martial fortitude or more precisely lack thereof of ROC forces as they now exist on the island of Taiwan.
They required extensive mental consoling from professional psychiatrists because PLAN sailors misnationalized them as Chinese people.
These are just some scattershot ideas I've been having on Taiwan as of late, not to be taken seriously as a disclaimer since like I said its just stuff off the top of my head.
I used to think the Taiwan issue would always come down to a forced reunification. In terms of values, the two territory's populations had already strayed way too far apart. Empires use force to assert their rule, but ultimately lead by example, and humans will always be simple beings who follow the strongest. Taiwanese youth in this case had long resisted the idea of reunification under the notion the Mainland had nothing to offer them. From their perspective, their island was the linchpin of the global high tech economy, they had a supposedly functioning democracy where the voices of all were heard and the rights of all were respected, and they were under the security umbrella of the most powerful group of nations espousing those values. However, it may have only been a little over a month since Trump was sworn into office, but that illusion of a liberal order has begun to crumble.
2025 has ushered in a new world and a new reality that Taiwan will have no choice but to accept. A reality on one hand where the Western values it attached itself to in opposition to the Mainland have given way to burgeoning dictatorship in the USA, right wing populism in the Europe and Korea, and an overall rejection of tolerance. Alliance based on common values and shared interests has given way to ruthless bartering. Allies directly tied to proxy fights in the great power struggle, namely Ukraine, have been thrown under the bus. Perhaps even a Democrat administration would've had this view, with the Trump admin just being more honest about it. And that is Taiwan may have its uses, but the US will only ever think of Taiwan in terms of exactly that, its utility towards immediate interests, not of its eternal value within any "world order."
The other reality facing Taiwan is a China embarking on a new chapter in its history. In my opinion, for over a decade China may have been the world's second biggest economy, but it was still very much a nation finding its footing in a world that was America's. 2025 however, is shaping up to be the year where China finally has found that footing technologically, culturally, and civilizationally. They can care little for the dictates of Washington and have become pillar of stability in a world where the Western order stands on failing feet. Taiwan up until recently had always prided on being "the last bastion of Chinese culture," well the PRC of the 2025 has brought Chinese civilization to the forefront of the 21st Century in a big way.
And simply put, this is the new world that Taiwan finds itself in. Perhaps the more zeaolous of the lot would say they would rather hold onto their values than compromise them to shift in the direction of the winds. They are free to do that, but all Chinese know what happened when the Qing Dynasty decided to that and when all's said and done, Taiwanese have always been Chinese.
I used to think the Taiwan issue would always come down to a forced reunification. In terms of values, the two territory's populations had already strayed way too far apart. Empires use force to assert their rule, but ultimately lead by example, and humans will always be simple beings who follow the strongest. Taiwanese youth in this case had long resisted the idea of reunification under the notion the Mainland had nothing to offer them. From their perspective, their island was the linchpin of the global high tech economy, they had a supposedly functioning democracy where the voices of all were heard and the rights of all were respected, and they were under the security umbrella of the most powerful group of nations espousing those values. However, it may have only been a little over a month since Trump was sworn into office, but that illusion of a liberal order has begun to crumble.
2025 has ushered in a new world and a new reality that Taiwan will have no choice but to accept. A reality on one hand where the Western values it attached itself to in opposition to the Mainland have given way to burgeoning dictatorship in the USA, right wing populism in the Europe and Korea, and an overall rejection of tolerance. Alliance based on common values and shared interests has given way to ruthless bartering. Allies directly tied to proxy fights in the great power struggle, namely Ukraine, have been thrown under the bus. Perhaps even a Democrat administration would've had this view, with the Trump admin just being more honest about it. And that is Taiwan may have its uses, but the US will only ever think of Taiwan in terms of exactly that, its utility towards immediate interests, not of its eternal value within any "world order."
The other reality facing Taiwan is a China embarking on a new chapter in its history. In my opinion, for over a decade China may have been the world's second biggest economy, but it was still very much a nation finding its footing in a world that was America's. 2025 however, is shaping up to be the year where China finally has found that footing technologically, culturally, and civilizationally. They can care little for the dictates of Washington and have become pillar of stability in a world where the Western order stands on failing feet. Taiwan up until recently had always prided on being "the last bastion of Chinese culture," well the PRC of the 2025 has brought Chinese civilization to the forefront of the 21st Century in a big way.
And simply put, this is the new world that Taiwan finds itself in. Perhaps the more zeaolous of the lot would say they would rather hold onto their values than compromise them to shift in the direction of the winds. They are free to do that, but all Chinese know what happened when the Qing Dynasty decided to that and when all's said and done, Taiwanese have always been Chinese.
I still think a forced reunification is easier to construct a narrative politically. Imagine a small skirmish at the beach and at the DPP HQ/presidential palace. Taiwanese people can all blame the DPP for being evil separatists leading the people astray and absolve all of their previous sins against the people living on the mainland.
If you have a peaceful reunification, that narrative is hard to craft. The Taiwanese have committed many sins against the people living on the mainland. Who's going to take responsibility? You can't blame everything on Lee Teng-hui. Was it all just a misunderstanding and now we're all family again? Are DPP members going to be politically rehabilitated? If not how are you going to explain the history of the peaceful reunification?
Too many people here focus on what weapons does the PLA have, how will the world look at China after reunification etc,. Time and time again have shown that great powers mostly care about domestic affairs and not international concerns. Killing a few hundred die hard separatists just to craft a convenient political narrative is 100% worth it. Those who disagree should flip open some Chinese history books. The CPC governs China with the consent of the Chinese people only, the opinion of "global citizens" ultimately mean nothing to the CPC.
Alternatively the KMT could somehow defeat the DPP and round them all up as political prisoners, then submit to the CPC in negotiations. But looking at the current state of the KMT, this is impossible since those loser cucks can't even win an election.
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Would that it were so, but my personal and online experience with Taiwanese suggests otherwise; ego and superiority complex overrides every single time the reality that China is getting bigger and bigger while Taiwan remains small and while big daddy US is less and less likely to militarily intervene if and when China decides to finally end the Taiwan question in its favor. Pride comes before the fall, but even knowing this phrase will not keep you from hitting the ground as you thumb your nose all the way down.
Not to say the Taiwanese (whatever that actually means) are cowardly and emasculated in general, but at this point: Ms Oung's position more likely than not reflect that of most Taiwanese when it comes to kinetic resistance against the PLA.
Though one can't really blame Trump for trying to appropriate TSMC to Make America Great Again either as that is effectively what he was elected to do.
However, the crudeness of Trump's approach is a double edged sword that may push Taipei and Washington apart. So what carrots can or might Beijing offer TSMC in particular and Taipei in general to seize the opportunity?
TSMC shareholders might be allowed to keep their shares, and leniency for the politicians during sentencing post reunification.
Yes, a brief fight is coming and imo inevitable. But it won't be China's Palestine as US hopes. It will be US' Assad. There are few people willing to fight for Taiwan separatism, destroying the whole province is not needed.
Increasingly we are seeing that US will never commit to a full scale invasion. You don't prep for a war by gutting your domestic control, weakening your healthcare, teasing military budget cuts while dividing your population like never before.
In the 2026-2028 timeframe. Because this is at the end of Xi's final term and more likely than not, he's elected on the promise to defend Taiwan. Once that's solved, his political career is over with honors.