the general sentiment in Taiwan is not one of boldheadedness but rather an apathy and pessimism
a) China never attempts AR,
b) That the ROCA completely overpowers the PLA,
c) that the PLA militarily but bloodlessly takes over Taiwan,
d) that American sons will die for Taiwan, and
e) that their neighbor's son will die for Taiwan
Taiwan is not Ukraine; there isn't the same kind of genuine patriotism in fear there. It's either that Xi will never attempt, or that Xi will never succeed. The point is acknowledged when the entire point of the Zero Day TV show to come out in a few months is to get Taiwanese people more afraid of China. The people most reluctant to the idea of annexation are:
.
China has to some extent won the psychological war, but that "China is strong enough to have assured and total dominance over the US" is yet to be fully realized. China has military dominance yes, but not one with margins wide enough to completely legitimize Taiwan as a province. Only when INDOPACOM is to China what India is the same, can AR be bloodless (for PLA soldiers).
I think the unification will be bloodless, i.e. an armed unification without gunfire. As PRC keeps building up its military power and economic strength, the possibility of foreign interference is diminishing. Taiwan will be forced to accept the conditions set by the mainland.
China is absolutely not satisfied with the status quo across the Strait.
I've written a list to give you guys an idea of what some of the "dark green" DPP supporters think, and frankly what a good portion of the Taiwanese population thinks. By no means is this exhaustive and only some points apply to some poeple, but they definitely have a different perspective to say the least.
They genuinely believe the CCP will not attempt armored reunification (AR)
• The AR talks are just internal propaganda meant to maintaining power (
). When we see military exercises around Taiwan, they see "CCP is wasting money on propaganda to appease pinkies again".
• AR is extremely risky, and the CCP would never risk their rule for such an uncertain outcome
• Many CCP leaders have relatives and interests overseas, making them unlikely to take actions that could harm those connections.
• "China hasn't attempted AR for over 70 years and China isn't going to start now."
They genuinely believe the PLA is trash
• With all the corruption scandals and personnel changes, they believe the PLA is corrupt to the core and incapable of fighting
• All the big-ticket items are for graft and prestige
• They've been consistently
—whether true or not—of PLA equipment failures, reinforcing the belief that PLA hardware is fundamentally shitty. They genuinely view PLA aircraft, missiles, radars, and other systems as non-threats, much like how some people dismiss Indian military equipment.
• The PLA hasn’t fought a war in decades and lacks real combat experience. While the U.S. hasn’t faced a peer adversary either, they don’t fully buy this comparison because the U.S. has been consistently engaged in military operations, which they see as providing battle-tested experience
They genuinely believe their "friends" will help them
• They’ll compare the U.S. and Chinese militaries, counting the number of carriers, destroyers, aircraft, etc., and noting U.S. technological advantages like advanced engines and nuclear-powered carriers. Based on this, they’ll conclude that China can’t compete with the U.S. militarily (it’s all about perception).
• The "freedom-loving, democracy-valuing countries"—Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Europe, and others—will "gang up" against China
• Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions. They’re convinced that China’s economy would be in ruins if it ever attempted AR
They genuinely believe they can fend off the PLA—at least long enough
• The Taiwan Strait is too formidable of a barrier, and amphibious landing is too difficult of a task
• With modern surveillance technologies, any preparations for AR would be detected well in advance, giving them ample time to prepare an effective defense
• Their anti-ship missiles will sink all the transport fleets
It’s funny because, from what I’ve observed, they’re more worried about the “fifth column” than the PLA’s hard power. Their mindset is, “The CCP can’t defeat us, but those among us can (so vote DPP!).”
My opinion is that nothing China does will pop this bubble, except AR itself. Keep in mind it's all about perception. Regardless how much you argue, they'll only believe it when they see it. (I have a theory that the DPP pursuing a strategy of betting on the assumption that AR won’t happen. I’ve happily coined it the “台赌论”. But I’ll save this for later)
