I believe the response is muted is because Mccarthy did not visit Taiwan, clearly a concession was made because of the response to the Pelosi visit, the responses are calibrated.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
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I believe the response is muted is because Mccarthy did not visit Taiwan, clearly a concession was made because of the response to the Pelosi visit, the responses are calibrated.
TIers are cooperating with the Hegemon to raise the tensions. Mainland should tell Taiwan politicians that they will suffer 诛九族 if they cause the premature restart of the civil war.
I'm going to kinda disagree with Blitzo "This reaction is more muted than last year because the event they are reacting to is less significant than last year."
And I think obj 705A nailed it China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate
While everyone excitedly watches China wave the military hand east of Taiwan, China used the salami-slice hand to incrementally increase civilian law enforcement authority west of Taiwan. And when this week's excitement fades, that law enforcement salami-slice will remain in place. And soon will be exercised. By a CCG authorized a few months ago to use its weapons as needed. Under the watchful eye of the PLAN.
And I think obj 705A nailed it China to inspect ships in Taiwan Strait, Taiwan says won't cooperate
While everyone excitedly watches China wave the military hand east of Taiwan, China used the salami-slice hand to incrementally increase civilian law enforcement authority west of Taiwan. And when this week's excitement fades, that law enforcement salami-slice will remain in place. And soon will be exercised. By a CCG authorized a few months ago to use its weapons as needed. Under the watchful eye of the PLAN.
But the reaction very much is more muted.
The inspection statement was that it would only occur for a few days, and to our knowledge they have not actually forcibly boarded any ships either. Yes, in the spectrum of gradually turning up future potential of heat for persistent boarding and enforcement in the strait, the statement was notable.
But given they haven't actually forcibly boarded any ships against Taiwan's resistance, as a whole the overall Chinese response is indeed more muted than last year.
If they had actually forcibly boarded ships against Taiwan resistance then that would be a whole other matter.
The real game is starting after Taiwanese and American presidential elections in 2024. This time they exercised great restraint, by both not meeting in neither Taiwan nor DC, due to not wanting to escalate it too much with China and affect their elections prospects 1 year before them. But once they secure themselves politically, everything is going to start. I think provocations are going to be much more serious than even Pelosi visit. China should hid all of its response actions until then. This time it didn't require much action and it was enough of a response.
Latest rumors:
1) Guy doesn't want to go back (obviously).
2) Mainland provided housing for him.
3) Also found a job for him, 200K RMB a year which is really great for Xiamen.
I think that the CPC is downplaying the incident for now to keep him as a future card should things get interesting.
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200k RMB per year would put him among the top earners in Taiwan. 200k RMB is 885k NTD/year or 73k NTD/month.
Is this the first time J-15's have crossed the ADIZ?
I think so, but I think the ADIZ represents something more like the maximum range of Taiwanese radars, so it is more like 'the first time J-15s were detected by Taiwan' rather than 'first time J-15s crossed the ADIZ physical distance limits'.
Taiwan doesn't have the capability to detect low flying J-15s with their ground based radars. They need to loft their limited E-2s for that.
The real question is, how many planes or sorties did the Liaoning launch, if 4 were detected?