PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tankphobia said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1644870818814652416
A large show of force from the Chinese side in reaction to Tsai's US tour, but I don't think it is sufficient to deter Taiwan. In fact this current reaction is more muted then when Pelosi visited Taiwan. China should consider economic sanctions as further steps.
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the claimed numbers and paths shows that they actually have no idea how many PLAAF planes are in the air or their real paths.

the Taiwan strait is only 160 km across,
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71 planes with standard spacing spans the strait 2 times, even with compressed 1 km spacing would span half the strait. They also wouldn't be able to make such tight turns even in the open, much less in highly constrained airspace like that.
 
siegecrossbow

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Sleepyjam

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Zhao confirmed with the Global Times that the Shandong aircraft carrier group, now operating in the West Pacific waters southeast of the island of Taiwan, is also a part of the exercise, and is playing an important role in surrounding the island from its east side.

Other weaponry and equipment involved in the patrols and joint drills include the PHL-191 long-range multiple launch rocket system of the Army, the Type 052C destroyer, the Type 054A frigate, the Type 22 missile boat, the YJ-12B shore-based anti-ship missile of the Navy, the J-10C, the J-16 and the Su-30 fighter jets, the KJ-500 early warning aircraft, the H-6K bomber, the YU-20 aerial tanker of the Air Force, as well as the DF-11, DF-15 and the DF-16 conventional ballistic missiles of the Rocket Force, according to official PLA reports.
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tankphobia

tankphobia

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FairAndUnbiased said:
the claimed numbers and paths shows that they actually have no idea how many PLAAF planes are in the air or their real paths.

the Taiwan strait is only 160 km across,
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71 planes with standard spacing spans the strait 2 times, even with compressed 1 km spacing would span half the strait. They also wouldn't be able to make such tight turns even in the open, much less in highly constrained airspace like that.
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That's typical, I think Taiwan MOD haven't published actual path of PLAAF aircraft for quite a while now.

siegecrossbow said:
It’s not meant as propaganda deterrence. It is a trial run.
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That is true, but it just appear that these kinds of exercises only embolden the DPP to keep pulling stunts to raise strait tensions, imo China is reactive rather than active in this space.
 
Blitzo

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tankphobia said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1644870818814652416
A large show of force from the Chinese side in reaction to Tsai's US tour, but I don't think it is sufficient to deter Taiwan. In fact this current reaction is more muted then when Pelosi visited Taiwan. China should consider economic sanctions as further steps.
Click to expand...

This reaction is more muted than last year because the event they are reacting to is less significant than last year.

The point of geopolitical signalling is that there has to be a rhyme and reason to it. Signalling is titrated to extent of perceived provocation.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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Blitzo said:
This reaction is more muted than last year because the event they are reacting to is less significant than last year.

The point of geopolitical signalling is that there has to be a rhyme to reason to it.
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No live firing this year, so the reaction is a lot more muted. But if you dig deeper this year’s exercise is actually a lot more dangerous.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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tankphobia said:
That's typical, I think Taiwan MOD haven't published actual path of PLAAF aircraft for quite a while now.


That is true, but it just appear that these kinds of exercises only embolden the DPP to keep pulling stunts to raise strait tensions, imo China is reactive rather than active in this space.
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reactive in symbolism while active in action on the ground is good. reactive in symbolism means you can have a proper casus belli to avoid looking like an aggressor as much.

In the end when the hammer falls, it will look like they "deserved it" and were given proper warning, thus sanctions would be lukewarm, and it would be hard for the regime to rally kinetic allies.

if the separatist regime escalates in rhetoric, while China escalates in action, that is perfect. They look like the unhinged fascists while even the most aggressive kinetic escalations look like justified self defense.
 
tankphobia

tankphobia

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FairAndUnbiased said:
reactive in symbolism while active in action on the ground is good. reactive in symbolism means you can have a proper casus belli to avoid looking like an aggressor as much.

In the end when the hammer falls, it will look like they "deserved it" and were given proper warning, thus sanctions would be lukewarm, and it would be hard for the regime to rally kinetic allies.

if the separatist regime escalates in rhetoric, while China escalates in action, that is perfect. They look like the unhinged fascists while even the most aggressive kinetic escalations look like justified self defense.
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The problem with the current escalation seem to be that the messaging is not necessarily handled well by China , so far western public reaction seem to be just confused as China didn't kick up much of a fuss prior to Tsai's visit. Where as the Pelosi visit was handled in a way that a large portion of westerners actually agreed with China that US actions were provocative.

But this is definitely a good opportunity for PLAN and PLAAF to practice fleet movement and coordination during AR scenario, they should consider also including a amphibious landing drill just to make it more comprehensive.

Edit: added a photo of various movement of PLA assets as of 2 days ago I believe.
ega2dwigbusa1.jpg
 
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siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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tankphobia said:
That's typical, I think Taiwan MOD haven't published actual path of PLAAF aircraft for quite a while now.


That is true, but it just appear that these kinds of exercises only embolden the DPP to keep pulling stunts to raise strait tensions, imo China is reactive rather than active in this space.
Click to expand...

Neither DPP nor KMT is behind the stunts that raise strait tensions.
 
Blitzo

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tankphobia said:
The problem with the current escalation seem to be that the messaging is not necessarily handled well by China , so far western public reaction seem to be just confused as China didn't kick up much of a fuss prior to Tsai's visit. Where as the Pelosi visit was handled in a way that a large portion of westerners actually agreed with China that US actions were provocative.

But this is definitely a good opportunity for PLAN and PLAAF to practice fleet movement and coordination during AR scenario, they should consider also including a amphibious landing drill just to make it more comprehensive.
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The whole point why China didn't kick up as much of an issue for Tsai's visit this time is because it is less significant than Pelosi's visit last year. That is also why the PLA response this time is a bit lower profile than last year's response.

The level of political rhetoric and the level of military display is entirely appropriate, I don't see what the issue is.
 
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