PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

bobsagget

New Member
Registered Member
I actually know a bit about this. US construction materials for almost everything except few skyscrapers in the urban core is wood, either full wood or wood with concrete first floor. Concrete first floor, rest wood is called 5 over 1 and is the predominant multifamily housing unit in the US since the 90s. Otherwise single family homes are full wood. Many "concrete" or "brick" building in the US actually uses wood as the primary load bearing structure and interior while the brick or concrete is a facade used to resist weathering, waterproof the building, and to make it look more expensive and high end.
tbh the Us design philosophy was all about bombing survival hence suburbs are quarter acer plots spread out over miles.
If you assumed day light ww2 style bombing raids the plots are spaced far enough apart that a bomb hit on one house would not likely kill another. Also the yards serve as fire stops inhibiting fire storms as do the frequent roads . There are a lot of weird benefits to suburbs and sprawl from a war time perspective . Assuming you do not expect to fight on foot . Tbh even than it still creates a hellish eco system where nothing is cover and everything is concealment .
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
tbh the Us design philosophy was all about bombing survival hence suburbs are quarter acer plots spread out over miles.
If you assumed day light ww2 style bombing raids the plots are spaced far enough apart that a bomb hit on one house would not likely kill another. Also the yards serve as fire stops inhibiting fire storms as do the frequent roads . There are a lot of weird benefits to suburbs and sprawl from a war time perspective . Assuming you do not expect to fight on foot . Tbh even than it still creates a hellish eco system where nothing is cover and everything is concealment .
that is WW2 style thinking though. suburbs are super easy to logistically disrupt via attacking oil distribution and refining, as nothing is walkable and all logistics are car based which means oil based. Infrastructure in suburbs is more expensive, less reliable and less hardened; because it is expensive to bury power cables, they're on vulnerable overhead poles while in urban areas they're buried or building integrated.

you mentioned everything is concealment, nothing is cover. True. What's even more true is that the strength of urban combat - 3D engagement capability against enemy armor and infantry, requiring room clearing or bombing to rubble, and even the rubble creates cover - does not apply in the slightest to suburbs. Buildings are short, so even rooftop operators are within gun elevation range.

meanwhile urban centers are fortresses with cover, concealment and 3D engagement capability against invaders. Concrete buildings are extremely tough as Ukraine has shown. You can run urban logistics on bicycles and bucket brigades if power and oil gets cut or rationed.
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Thermal radiation is emitted from the fireball (whose maximum size is roughly the crater size in solid rock). It is a dominant contributor to airburst casualties and may even produce a firestorm. However, buildings provide significant shielding to thermal radiation. Only glass permits penetration beyond the first surface (and then only of the visible/near infrared component of the thermal radiation). As a result, thermal radiation is not expected to penetrate beyond the first ring of buildings outside the fireball (roughly 300 m radius). The short range to which significant thermal radiation can penetrate implies that thermal radiation will not be a significant contributor to casualties compared to the blast effects.
This doesn't apply to wood because the wood burns.
 

bobsagget

New Member
Registered Member
that is WW2 style thinking though. suburbs are super easy to logistically disrupt via attacking oil distribution and refining, as nothing is walkable and all logistics are car based which means oil based. Infrastructure in suburbs is more expensive, less reliable and less hardened; because it is expensive to bury power cables, they're on vulnerable overhead poles while in urban areas they're buried or building integrated.

you mentioned everything is concealment, nothing is cover. True. What's even more true is that the strength of urban combat - 3D engagement capability against enemy armor and infantry, requiring room clearing or bombing to rubble, and even the rubble creates cover - does not apply in the slightest to suburbs. Buildings are short, so even rooftop operators are within gun elevation range.

meanwhile urban centers are fortresses with cover, concealment and 3D engagement capability against invaders. Concrete buildings are extremely tough as Ukraine has shown. You can run urban logistics on bicycles and bucket brigades if power and oil gets cut or rationed.
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This doesn't apply to wood because the wood burns.
in theory a quarter acre should mostly be self sufficent . With victory gardens and potato boxes ( along with an undying appetite for potatoes ) a normal suburb plot should feed 4-5 people. Issue is the skill set to make suburbs work for dispersed warfare is lost. No longer are hobby machine shops common . most people do not can their food or are familiar with growing plants . The suburbs as you pointed out are an older notion of distributed survival that no longer applies . Yet its something we still cling to here .
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
in theory a quarter acre should mostly be self sufficent . With victory gardens and potato boxes ( along with an undying appetite for potatoes ) a normal suburb plot should feed 4-5 people. Issue is the skill set to make suburbs work for dispersed warfare is lost. No longer are hobby machine shops common . most people do not can their food or are familiar with growing plants . The suburbs as you pointed out are an older notion of distributed survival that no longer applies . Yet its something we still cling to here .
there's not enough nitrogen in the soil to support 4-5 people farming potatoes on a suburban plot. the nitrogen has to come from fertilizer, which is derived from natural gas and shipped via oil burning trucks. it's 100% obsolete as an idea because it moves dependency of logistics from just electricity and water to oil+electricity+water.

urban+rural >>> surburban by far.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
there's not enough nitrogen in the soil to support 4-5 people farming potatoes on a suburban plot. the nitrogen has to come from fertilizer, which is derived from natural gas and shipped via oil burning trucks. it's 100% obsolete as an idea because it moves dependency of logistics from just electricity and water to oil+electricity+water.

urban+rural >>> surburban by far.

Crop Rotation.
 

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
I'm surprised by the level of emotions Pelosi visit is generating here, but I guess it goes to show how important the Taiwan issue is to many here and on the mainland. This is just an outsider observation.

I'm extremely confident behind all the public charades, the head of US military forces Mark Milley will talk to his counter Li Zuocheng (if that's him, I'm not entirely familiar) to ensure nothing major happens.
Mark Milley will even share with Li Pelosi's flight plan, path and time to make absolutely sure there's zero room for miscommunication between forces like he did when it came to Trump and nukes. I mean he told Li, he will personally let him know if US was about to nuke China.

There are adults on both sides on the Pacific and they will stay up all night and day (time zone difference) to make sure this doesn't result in a hot conflict. Biden and Xi recent call was to make sure the adults were in charge. Now the underlings will make sure this dog and pony show Pelosi started doesn't get out of hand.

The biggest risk to all of this is what I termed early in my post about possible response from the PLA.

US will scramble fighters if they think PLAAF is intending on intercepting her. It will certainly force her to cancel her trip but it might create a mini-skirmish or even a mock air battle between forces. This is the most risky scenario which is why I believe whatever PLA does, it will be after Pelosi has landed in Taiwan and will continue after she leaves.

PLA won't act while she's in the air since that will be the most dangerous moment in all of this.

Looking at this holistic, it will be extremely idiotic if a war started over this especially when PLA hasn't even attained their full maturation in many critical areas (SSN, SSBN, 5th gen fighters, VLO bombers, CATOBAR carriers, etc) and China hasn't fully emerged economically. If ever in the future, it comes to war on Taiwan, China should assume it will be fighting not just US but Japan as well. US can't fight China without Japan so you know Japan will be a participant. PLA needs to be ready for both forces + Taiwan. It should also expect the backlash Russia has recieved economically which is why it needs to be ready to sustain its economy in some fashion at that time (access to resources and markets, etc).

It's like cooking. You don't eat while the food is still boiling on the stove. You finish preparing the meal and then serve it up neatly on a plate with drink and extras sides or snacks. Then you take a seat and enjoy.

China starting a war over this is like eating directing from the hot pot while it's still on the stove. It will be an inconvenient since the PLA dish is not done yet. You can taste it while it's still cooking which I guess will be like PLA showing the world some extreme snap drills like crossing the median line or launching ballistics near Taiwan.

Edit: You also have to understand Pelosi mindset. Old and frail, she's about to retire from her long corrupt-free (this is sarcasm) public service. She wants to put on her long resume as having visited the infamous Taiwan island while she was in office. This is more of a photo-shoot than anything. Imagine starting a war over this.
semiconductor independence, energy/food independence, mass production of H20 / J20 / 095 / J32, and most importantly expanding nuclear arsenal to at least 5000 warheads. Off the top of my head these are all things China must achieve before it is fully prepared to fight and beat back US + allies in a liberation of Taiwan scenario.
 

bobsagget

New Member
Registered Member
there's not enough nitrogen in the soil to support 4-5 people farming potatoes on a suburban plot. the nitrogen has to come from fertilizer, which is derived from natural gas and shipped via oil burning trucks. it's 100% obsolete as an idea because it moves dependency of logistics from just electricity and water to oil+electricity+water.

urban+rural >>> surburban by far.
its not much of an issue most us houses have septic systems that leach into the lawn and boost the nitrogen content. Most soil is pretty good .
 

solarz

Brigadier
in theory a quarter acre should mostly be self sufficent . With victory gardens and potato boxes ( along with an undying appetite for potatoes ) a normal suburb plot should feed 4-5 people. Issue is the skill set to make suburbs work for dispersed warfare is lost. No longer are hobby machine shops common . most people do not can their food or are familiar with growing plants . The suburbs as you pointed out are an older notion of distributed survival that no longer applies . Yet its something we still cling to here .

A quarter acre is 10,000 square feet. That's about the size of 3 typical suburban plots, and that's including the space occupied by the actual house.

The typical suburban family would be lucky to get 10 square feet for gardening.


there's not enough nitrogen in the soil to support 4-5 people farming potatoes on a suburban plot. the nitrogen has to come from fertilizer, which is derived from natural gas and shipped via oil burning trucks. it's 100% obsolete as an idea because it moves dependency of logistics from just electricity and water to oil+electricity+water.

urban+rural >>> surburban by far.

While I agree that suburbs are a luxury and an inefficient use of space, in an actual homesteading scenario you can raise chickens and ducks to provide a rich source of nitrogen.

If you have a nearby pond, ducks can feed themselves. Chickens can eat leftover veggies and scratch for bugs. It's how Chinese farmers did it for thousands of years.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
A quarter acre is 10,000 square feet. That's about the size of 3 typical suburban plots, and that's including the space occupied by the actual house.

The typical suburban family would be lucky to get 10 square feet for gardening.




While I agree that suburbs are a luxury and an inefficient use of space, in an actual homesteading scenario you can raise chickens and ducks to provide a rich source of nitrogen.

If you have a nearby pond, ducks can feed themselves. Chickens can eat leftover veggies and scratch for bugs. It's how Chinese farmers did it for thousands of years.
there is just not enough nitrogen fixation capability.
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Nearly 50% of the nitrogen found in human tissues originated from the Haber–Bosch process. Thus, the Haber process serves as the "detonator of the population explosion", enabling the global population to increase from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 7.7 billion by November 2018.
in a logistics disruption situation, the immediate cutoff of oil, fertilizer, electricity and water (which requires electrical pumps) means rapid starvation and thirst. then, long term, you have the diminished carrying capacity caused by loss of Haber Bosch process.

urban areas on the other hand are far more resilient, see Siege of Leningrad.
 
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