A few examples of shoot downs too.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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My comments were in the sense that the LRASM would be employed in a naval conflict.
To be fair, even to myself, it seems more than proven that the AFGSC's attack capability is overestimated, considering the results against Iran, but I wasn't the only one who overestimated this capability; even dignitaries here made the same mistake.
In a military war never underestimate ur opponent capability. That said you are also underestimating the ability for china to mass produce missile and drones. In the peace times its obvious they will have lower number of advanced missile. But we have no idea how many they have now. They might have more than what you think they have. Another thing is having high budget doesn't necessarily mean you can mass produce easily if you don't have manufacturing strength. A good example would be america with their trillion dollar budget struggling to mass produce some of their weapons or warships. Please note that I'm not against china increasing their military budget.
They had been supplying missile technology to the Iranians, the Pakistanis, The Saudis, the Koreans and even the Russians for decades.
They had been building missiles since the 70s, in fact China whole strategy in 90s and early 2000s was asymmetrical warfare against the US and their allies were they will overwhelm the US and their allies air defenses with a sheer number of medium range ballistic missiles, drones, cruise missiles. sound familiar. China production capacity is unmatched. Put in perspective China produce almost a million heavy trucks a year, these trucks are not very different that TEL launchers. These truck can be converted into launchers like North Koreans did when they converted logging trucks into launchers. I think is safe to say that China may have at least dozen of thousands medium to long range variety of missiles and dozen of thousands of cruise missiles. I think China can reach hundred of thousands in a year o two if they decide to do so. Different from other countries, they are almost completely independent in military tech production. Including semiconductors, MEMS, machine tools and so on.
I think people are putting too much faith in China's production capacity. In a proper high intensity war, those factories could be disrupted very easily. Production could be stopped, material shipment stopped using drones and missiles, the entire factory or critical parts of it could be destroyed.
Putting too much faith on production during wartime is not prudent these days.
Worst case scenario, China loses production capacity and also faces mass drone and missile strikes and is forced to fight like Iran with limited stockpile.
I think they need to have some factories moved underground similar to Iran and how Mao envisioned with his third front strategy.
Disrupted with what? These JASSMs they had already spent on Iran? With LUCAS drones? Stop doubling down, dude.
i just give one example,
the biggest US intelligence failure in assessing of iran pre-war stockpile of missiles. The numbers were largely inaccurate and unrealistic.
and in this regards. Every year DOD reports the same ludicrous underestimate of Chinese strike missile inventory and launchers. so i request you please stop reading DOD annual report about PLA.
and i m with you on this. China need as much as maximum number of missiles and drones.
Japan, Taiwan and every US ally is spending copious amounts on defense and only going to keep growing their spending. My assumption is that if the war does come for China, it will come in 10-15 years. By that time, those countries will start their own mass production of missiles and drones.Disrupted with what? These JASSMs they had already spent on Iran? With LUCAS drones? Stop doubling down, dude.
I fear China will face an Iran style strategy from the likes of Japan and Taiwan where they mass acquire missiles and drones, which will render Chinese air power advantage much less dominant, China will find itself facing enormous amounts of drones and missiles and find that its air and missile defense is inadequate.
I have discussed this in the past that China lacks numbers when it comes to air defense. They have around 600 units of long range AD which is smaller than both Russia and US. They are still reliant on old S-300 for a major part of their AD stockpile.
China has developed the advanced AD systems. But cannot really produce it in huge numbers due to its much lower military budget.
The problem is always money. China's adversaries are spending without limit while China barely grows its budget each year.
China is literally independent in military production, literally, China is a massive country, there is not arsenal in the world that can bomb everything there, not even 10%. and they have massive stockpiles for war production and pretty much like the Iranians China production could be underground and difficult to reach to any military. China is so massive that don´t think even nuclear weapons wouldn´t do the job in a full mobilization and taken into consideration that China will go for the kill in a nuclear war destroy cities.
Japan and Taiwan budgets are tiny compared to China, they almost completely relying of US weapons imports and US budget is bloated with high inefficiencies. China is just simply outproducing the US in almost everything, the is the problem the US have, when China combine its civilian production with their military production that alone sky rocket the value of their budget, they can just produce more for less.