PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[GZDRefugee]

USA is not a threat and never has been
China can take the first, second island chain and even australia and there is nothing the US can do about it

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2040483112560247251

C'mon PLA. My dream is to see the Itano Circus with real missiles just once.

 

[Blitzo]

USA is not a threat and never has been
China can take the first, second island chain and even australia and there is nothing the US can do about it

This is such an unnecessary and silly thing to say. This chest thumping is not desirable for this forum.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

USA is not a threat and never has been
China can take the first, second island chain and even australia and there is nothing the US can do about it

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2040483112560247251

Don't be so over confident. China's military budget is so low that they also have very low numbers of advanced missiles. China lacks numbers and if they are forced to fight a high intensity war, their numbers will also run out within 1 month.

 

[sometimesnaive]

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• The US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
• After the moves, only about 425 JASSM-ER out of a prewar inventory of 2,300 will remain available for the rest of the globe.
• The US has used large numbers of long-range weapons like JASSM-ER for strikes, limiting the risk to service members but reducing stocks of systems meant for more capable adversaries such as China.

• US operations through the first four weeks of the war consumed more than 1,000 JASSM
• Lockheed Martin Corp’s scheduled production rate for 2026 is 396 of the longer-range version, although as many as 860 can be manufactured if the line, which also produces the LRASM anti-ship missile, is fully geared toward JASSMs.

On the matter of JASSM/LRASM...

 

[Serb]

Don't be so over confident. China's military budget is so low that they also have very low numbers of advanced missiles. China lacks numbers and if they are forced to fight a high intensity war, their numbers will also run out within 1 month.

US meme-like military budget figures, and other headline numbers, should be read as parody, not proof of strength.

A giant, wild figure means very little when so much of it is just corruption, contractor bloat, and inflated costs.

Britain likely had a fraction of the Spanish Armada’s budget and still beat it badly.

Spain had silver, imperial prestige, and a huge aura. What it lacked was durable substance.

Same imperial illusion, massive financial weight, weaker real production and maintenance underneath.

And in a real war of attrition, that gets exposed fast, as even Iran showed them already.

Some call China the paper tiger, when, by the literal meaning of the phrase, the US fits it much better.

As for all this supposed American "high technology" and "experience," reality has looked more like laundry fires that burn for 30 hours, toilet failures, refueling aircraft hitting each other mid-air, endless "friendly fires", recurring malfunctions, and then not even being able to protect their own regional bases, soldiers, and expensive assets once Iran started hitting back, even during the inital hour at least.

 

[davidau]

Don't be so over confident. China's military budget is so low that they also have very low numbers of advanced missiles. China lacks numbers and if they are forced to fight a high intensity war, their numbers will also run out within 1 month.

I think you are grossly underestimated China's capabilty. Have you heard of the old Korean War era J7s have been converted into deadly drones?

 

[Puss in Boots]

Don't be so over confident. China's military budget is so low that they also have very low numbers of advanced missiles. China lacks numbers and if they are forced to fight a high intensity war, their numbers will also run out within 1 month.

China should indeed remain humble, but you've gone a bit too far with your humility, even to the point of belittling it.

 

[sometimesnaive]

Have you heard of the old Korean War era J7s have been converted into deadly drones?

The ones that are supposedly being converted into suicide drones are the J-6 (J-6W). But this whole thing has been sensationalised and is not a credible fact.

 

[latenlazy]

Don't be so over confident. China's military budget is so low that they also have very low numbers of advanced missiles. China lacks numbers and if they are forced to fight a high intensity war, their numbers will also run out within 1 month.

Someone needs to learn the difference between spending volumes and production volumes.

 

[supersnoop]

I’m “looking forward” to seeing this JASSM-ER at work. It will put @Sinnavuuty theories to test. That being said, early returns are already showing what some of us expected.
1. Not enough missiles in general
2. Precision strikes not able to create enough damage.

If Maritime Militia or Sea drones are used to the full extent, LRASM will have problems.