PLA Strategies In The Indian Ocean And The Malacca And Sunda Straits

Phead128

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... but that is not to say China should surrender expanding it's soft influence via economic/cultural/diplomatic means if it can't/don't/ want to expel US from Asia (yet). Those are super important things to do since China is focused on peacetime growth. China has the world's largest diplomatic corp and embassy network presence, exceeding that of US. Cultural soft influence/economic ties is super helpful to dilute/soften alliances. Example, Japan/Korea didn't diplomatic boycott the Beijing Olympics despite intense US lobbying by Joe Biden. Instead, they cited COVID pandemic, which is good enough for China. :)
 

tphuang

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I started following PLA seriously back in early 2000s. It's hard to compare where they were back then vs where they are now. Similarly, their economic power is so much stronger than what it was before. Over the course of our live times, so many things have changed and will change in the future. Do not assume that geopolitical situation will remain as is over the next 30 years.

America has been able to sustain its power by having the world's reserve currency. That is what has funded its role as the world's policeman. That and its military strength. If you look at what's going on inside America, people are generally tired of that role for a while. That's why Trump was elected. He apparently wanted to pull America out of NATO. As the consequences of Russian sanctions roll though over the next couple of years, people will soon get tired of this forever war environment again. Do not assume America will always want to or have the money to be the world's policeman.

If China wants to dominate ASEAN regions, it will need to make a lot of changes. It will need to make its financial/banking sectors a lot more transparent and free flowing. It needs to provide an alternative finance system for the countries in this region. Yuan does not need to be the world's reserve currency. It does need to be viable alternative for international trading/finance to USD and Euro. Aside from that, It needs to secure the supply chain for all the major manufacturing that it does. It needs to catch up to America in military technology in most areas. All of these things are achievable.
 

Ex0

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And how do you expel America from the region without working with these countries? Do you have a plan other than China needs to get stronger? You think just by getting stronger, these countries will say we don't want America anymore?

Frankly, I don't even have a problem with usa being in western Pacific. Taiwan is the only issue. Other than that, I don't see any reason to make usa leave Japan, or even south Korea. I mean who wants an independent re militarized Japan? Do you? I don't. And I doubt anyone else in Asia or even the whole world does either, no matter how they talk or act publicly right now.

I see usa as just wasting it's money having bases in Japan and all over the world, and china itself benefits from such a system. Not to mention wasting lives and making endless enemies by invading and causing endless wars, which china just capitalizes on. It's the exact reason why BRI is so sucessful and nothing usa or even eu does can counter it. Because global south sees them as imperialist and colonialists, and china as non aligned non imperialist power. Having "allies" and playing world police and sanctioning and doing all that will change everything. Thst is not what china should be doing unless it has no other option, like usa goes bankrupt or has massive internal chaos and collapses and can no longer play world police. I mean when usa is wasting all it's money and making endless enemies and this all benefits china, why would china not only want to change that, but instead be the idiot making the mistakes instead that others can capitalise on like china is now? That would be the height of folly. You talk like usa having 800 bases and playing world police is a benefit. I don't see it that way and I doubt china does either. You talk about Monroe doctrine and all that like it is some super doctrine rather than a weakness which china has capitalized on. No one in south America or middle east or Africa or ASEAN likes usa. They are all just waiting for china to get richer and more powerful(and to bring them up to he powerful enough to defend themselves from usa), and this is ALREADY happening as we speak. Like I said, BRI is uncounterable simply because of such doctrines and actions/mistakes usa has made and continues to make. That is why even though usa and eu came up with build act or build back better, no one is taking them up on their offer and all is choosing china instead. It's why usa can't even get it's closest allies like australia to even cut china off, even when china is having trade and political dispute with Australia, Australia can only keep begging china to engage with it and has no plan to cut china off or reduce it's trade with china. You seem to think that military bases and global hegemony still mean something.. it doesn't. It will be a multipolar world and there will never be a single pole like usa dominated the world after collapse of Soviet union for like what, 20/30 years? Usa enjoyed those few decades but now it's coming back to bite them in the ass, with more than half of the world hating them which china can and is capitalizing on, while they can do nothing except watch and keep begging even their closest allies to stop trading with china or sanction china, yet even they aren't doing it. Because usa fucked up. Simple as that. China should not make the same mistake, and it isn't.

China just needs to improve it's information warfare/propaganda game. After another 2-3 decades then china can think about supplanting usa, but even then, I don't think having 800 military bases and 800 billion or trillion dollar military budget as a good use of money.

You also seem to be all over the place. You want to emulate usa and kick them out with hard power, you want to make vassals like usa has, but then to do that, you recommend appeasement to even small powerless states like pH or Vietnam. Why would they become vassals if you folded and appeased them? If anything that will only make them more bold and ask for more and more. It makes no sense. You're all over the place.

If you want to do what you want to do, with hard power and usa style sanctions and coups and bring them all into chinas orbit as vassal states, then again, the best way is to keep biding our time and keep doing what were currently doing, while we keep building up our Military and economic ties, and make ourselves unsanctionable and completely self reliant first, and match if not double usas economy(and equal or be bigger than usa and eu combined).

After that china can do whatever it wants. This will happen in another two/three decades probably, which is nothing. By such a time, china can just resolve Taiwan and SCS disputes by force. There is no need to appease anyone at this moment, china's leverage will only increase as time goes on, which obviously benefits china.

Until such time I don't see any reason why we should kick usa out of west pacific, they can't do anything to china anyway and if anything they are doing china's work for us for free. Like keeping Japan in line and keeping them militarily and culturally crippled. They will also do the same to India and also to Russia, as we've seen. Theyve pushed Russia right into chinas arms with Ukraine. It doesn't get any better for china than that, and china didn't have to do shit, and china gets to keep moral high ground and everything. One couldn't ask for a better position to be in than china's currently..

It's like everything is going right for china while the rest of the world can't seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot and destroying their own credibility or economies and making endless enemies with each other while china just capitalizes on everything. And the best part is they can't do anything to china except make china richer and more powerful, and they are all more reliant on china than ever and this will only keep getting more one sided in china's favor as time goes on and china's economy and technological strength keeps growing, along with the global souths(which hates usa and west).

Now is not the time to be making any drastic moves, that will only help china's enemies. Just see Russia. Don't take the bait. Keep flexible and keep rising as long as possible. Don't interrupt your enemy when they are only making mistakes over and over.

There's nothing for china to gain by giving up SCS islands or appeasing small irrelevant countries who can't do anything and aren't global or even middle powers. Same as playing world police. Nothing for china to gain from doing that, and only everything to lose and making endless enemies and wasting money and political capital. Let usa play world police, it benefits china just fine. Like usa keeping Japan down, keeping middle east in check, etc etc.

It's like good cop bad cop. Usa plays bad cop, china plays good cop, but china gets all the benefit while usa gets nothing but all the hate.

All china needs to do is build up it's media assets and cultural strength, so that if/when the time comes, china can also use it's military and economic might and get away with it like usa and west do currently. This won't be hard if china keeps playing good cop and usa playing bad cop, because it's actually true. China just needs to tell it's side of the story, aka the truth. Usas house of cards will buckle easily, but now is not the time, because believe it or not, china still benefits immensely under usa led world order. Yes, even with all the Xinjiang genocide and Taiwan and SCS and Tibet anti china propaganda, china is still the massive winner and usa still the massive loser.

Sure it sucks for those small countries like iraq and Afghanistan and all the countries usa has fucked and is still fucking over, but they aren't china's problem(for now). China's still not strong enough to take on and change and control the whole world yet(to achieve world peace). Even usa isn't, and they never were.. they just exploited and oppressed majority of the world for benefit of themselves and few western vassals. Hardly some 4d chess super strategy. I don't see why china should emulate usas foreign policy which has been a disaster(in the long run) and is now coming back to bite them in the ass. They got lucky due to geography after WW2 and had a good 2-3 decades only. That is nothing, even compared to past Chinese dynasties which had accomplished much more and for much longer. Their house of cards will collapse as soon as china blows it, but no need to do that yet since like I said, it benefits china immensely still to operate under such a system still(and why china bailed usa out to tune of 1 trillion during 2008 GFC). When it doesn't, then china can make those necessary moves. But that time has not come yet.
 
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tphuang

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China at the moment has no control over it's trade route. It has no way of stopping us navy or even Australia from cutting off it's trade route and it's precious energy supply right now. If you don't think that's a problem, then I don't know what to tell you.

Resolving border dispute through negotiation with your neighbour is not a weakness. Having loyalty among nations in your backyard is what builds up your local hegemon.
 

AndrewS

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China lost Southeast Asia as a exclusive sphere of influence when it lost the wars against Europeans and Japan (e.g., IndoChina conquered by France, Burma/Malaysia by British, Indonesia by Dutch, Philippines by Spain/US). For China to restore it's exclusive sphere of influence, it must go through war again. In other words, the Europeans/Americans must be physically expelled from East Asia and SE Asia via war.

Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore have formal treaty alliances, major Non-NATO allies, or strong working relationship with US. No amount of cultural exchange, economic interdependence, and confidence building measures can override security alliances, as we can see with South Korea. It can change on a dime with an new pro-US conservative president.

More fundamentally, ASEAN will play both sides to maximize their own benefit and will never accept overdependence on a single great power unless coerced by force OR there is simply no other option (e.g. when China was so piss-poor and backwards, US or USSR was the only option)

@ZeEa5KPul

If China can obtain overwhelmingly economic and military leverage over South Korea (which is possible), then I can see South Korea ditching its security alliance with the USA. After all, what is the point of that US alliance if it is useless? The same applies to other countries.

I also disagree that a war would be required for China to establish a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia.

If we look to the Monroe Doctrine, we can see that the US could establish a sphere of influence by meddling/controlling the domestic politics of the countries in Central America and South America.

The other issue is whether China need a sphere of influence that badly, so that it would go to war for one.

Finlandisation and neutrality is another model.
 
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Ex0

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China at the moment has no control over it's trade route. It has no way of stopping us navy or even Australia from cutting off it's trade route and it's precious energy supply right now. If you don't think that's a problem, then I don't know what to tell you.

Resolving border dispute through negotiation with your neighbour is not a weakness. Having loyalty among nations in your backyard is what builds up your local hegemon.
Tell me when and how usa or "Australia" will cut off china's oil route. You know that is a declaration of war?

Like I said if it came down to that, NO ONE will be getting any maritime trade, china can shut down all maritime trade routes also. Just sink trade ships with subs, or just ATTACK usa or Australia directly with missiles without even leaving china.

China has nukes and unstoppable missiles that can hit anywhere in the world, no one is gonna declare war on china which is what "cutting china's energy supply" amounts to. It would sink usa dollar and destroy usa completely, it would be a massive blunder on the part of usa. Taiwan and Japan would probably side with china in such a case since they would suffer most from shutdown of global maritime trade, along with all of middle east and the whole world. You don't just shut down global maritime trade for no reason. And china is not going to give them that reason. Even Taiwan invasion is not sufficient reason for usa to do such an idiotic thing.

In the meantime china is working on building up it's power projection capabilities and also moving towards energy independence. If usa does do something this silly like tomorrow, china can find land routes and still destroy usa. Usa won't win anything in such a game except for it's own destruction or mutual destruction. It's a completely ridiculous proposal that will never happen.

Just because something can be done doesn't mean it will be done. Same as china can nuke usa. But if usa wants to be crazy china can also be crazy
 

Ex0

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Resolving border dispute through negotiation with your neighbour is not a weakness. Having loyalty among nations in your backyard is what builds up your local hegemon.
I never said resolving through negotiations is a weakness, and that's exactly what china is doing. However what you recommend is appeasement and giving up the claims or islands etc. China is the one who has the leverage and holds all the cards, which is probably why china is in no rush to resolve the disputes today. It can kick the can down the road while letting it's leverage build up, same as Taiwan issue.

Status quo suits china just fine, time is on china side. Your only justification for doing all this is "what if someone declares war on china and cuts off its energy supply tomorrow". Which is just fantasy and won't happen. So there's no need for china to give up leverage and it's good position and change the status quo. Not that complicated.

If usa or anyone cuts off china's energy supplies for no reason tomorrow, that would turn the whole world against usa and they would all become china's willing vassals like they are for usa currently, usa would become a pariah state overnight and destroy itself without china having to do anything. China can play the victim and usa aggressor. This would be the best situation imaginable if a usa vs china conflict were to happen. You couldn't ask for better conditions. China could even use that as reason/excuse to take Taiwan and break the first island chain containment. There would be nothing usa can do and the world would side with china since usa was the aggressor. China could position itself as world police and guarantor of maritime security in such a situation.

If anything they would all close down those 800 bases and ask china to be world guarantor of maritime security and you would get your wish right then and there. Lol

Usa only has it's position right now because china doesn't want to play world police even though the world would prefer china to take such a role(see Ukraine war, china doesn't want to get involved still and be middle man even though the world is pushing china to take more active role). But that doesn't benefit china and china is not ready yet. Let usa play that role while china benefits more and usa wastes all it's money and makes endless enemies.
 
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gelgoog

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Like I said if it came down to that, NO ONE will be getting any maritime trade, china can shut down all maritime trade routes also. Just sink trade ships with subs, or just ATTACK usa or Australia directly with missiles without even leaving china.
The US has way more submarines to pursue a policy like that.
 

tphuang

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Tell me when and how usa or "Australia" will cut off china's oil route. You know that is a declaration of war?

Like I said if it came down to that, NO ONE will be getting any maritime trade, china can shut down all maritime trade routes also. Just sink trade ships with subs, or just ATTACK usa or Australia directly with missiles without even leaving china.

China has nukes and unstoppable missiles that can hit anywhere in the world, no one is gonna declare war on china which is what "cutting china's energy supply" amounts to. It would sink usa dollar and destroy usa completely, it would be a massive blunder on the part of usa. Taiwan and Japan would probably side with china in such a case since they would suffer most from shutdown of global maritime trade, along with all of middle east and the whole world. You don't just shut down global maritime trade for no reason. And china is not going to give them that reason. Even Taiwan invasion is not sufficient reason for usa to do such an idiotic thing.

In the meantime china is working on building up it's power projection capabilities and also moving towards energy independence. If usa does do something this silly like tomorrow, china can find land routes and still destroy usa. Usa won't win anything in such a game except for it's own destruction or mutual destruction. It's a completely ridiculous proposal that will never happen.

Just because something can be done doesn't mean it will be done. Same as china can nuke usa. But if usa wants to be crazy china can also be crazy
Lol, you have no idea of military capabilities that PLAN can project in that region vs USN. The possibility of China attacking Taiwan is very real. And the reality of US blocking China's trade routes as a result of that is very real. Western country and China decoupling is very real. US has a law that states it must be defend Taiwan. What makes you think they will do the hard part of joining the fight around Taiwan, but not the easy part of cutting China's energy/trade routes, which can be done easily around Malacca straits and destroy the infrastructure of China's SCS island bases.
 

tphuang

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I never said resolving through negotiations is a weakness, and that's exactly what china is doing. However what you recommend is appeasement and giving up the claims or islands etc. China is the one who has the leverage and holds all the cards, which is probably why china is in no rush to resolve the disputes today. It can kick the can down the road while letting it's leverage build up, same as Taiwan issue.
Looks like you have no idea when China was planning to force a Taiwan unification scenario. Just no idea.

And yes, dividing up a few rocks in SCS is not a big deal. They already militarized a few islands. They can militarize a couple of more to be able to completely control the sea traffic around SCS. What does having additional rocks help them with?

Status quo suits china just fine, time is on china side. Your only justification for doing all this is "what if someone declares war on china and cuts off its energy supply tomorrow". Which is just fantasy and won't happen. So there's no need for china to give up leverage and it's good position and change the status quo. Not that complicated.

If usa or anyone cuts off china's energy supplies for no reason tomorrow, that would turn the whole world against usa and they would all become china's willing vassals like they are for usa currently, usa would become a pariah state overnight and destroy itself without china having to do anything. China can play the victim and usa aggressor. This would be the best situation imaginable if a usa vs china conflict were to happen. You couldn't ask for better conditions. China could even use that as reason/excuse to take Taiwan and break the first island chain containment. There would be nothing usa can do and the world would side with china since usa was the aggressor. China could position itself as world police and guarantor of maritime security in such a situation.

If anything they would all close down those 800 bases and ask china to be world guarantor of maritime security and you would get your wish right then and there. Lol

Usa only has it's position right now because china doesn't want to play world police even though the world would prefer china to take such a role(see Ukraine war, china doesn't want to get involved still and be middle man even though the world is pushing china to take more active role). But that doesn't benefit china and china is not ready yet. Let usa play that role while china benefits more and usa wastes all it's money and makes endless enemies.
US attack Iraq for made up reason. Did the world stop relying on US? How many war has US being involved with since the second world war and how many countries have left American orbits?

The battle to gain world influence through economic and financial power is a long one. China cannot hope to do it without military power and geopolitical influence. If US wants to shut down China's influence right now, it's super easy.
 
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