PLA Strategies In The Indian Ocean And The Malacca And Sunda Straits


FriedButter

Senior Member
Registered Member
China only started expanding the size of its little islands after the 9 dash claim lost in the courts. Why is it important for them to have more of these little rocks? They only need a few of them for dominating SCS militarily. There should be ways they can resolve these issues with Phillipines and Indonesia.
I don’t necessarily agree with that in the sense the court was the major factor here. Obama “Pivot to Asia” started in 2012 to shift 60% of US navy Pacific region and the Philippines sided with the US in 2013 until it soured in 2016 over the drug war. IMO more then likely this was going to happen regardless of the outcome of the court.
 

Ex0

New Member
Registered Member
Now, if they can settle these claims with Philippines and Indonesia and have their share of islands in SCS, America would have no leg to stand on in this dispute at all. Do you want China to continue arguing about a few rocks and exploration rights or do you want it to continue having its expanded islands + naval bases in friendly countries in SCS? The Chinese government and PLA really needs to think about this. USN isn't going away with its freedom of navigation trips to SCS or its attempts to add air base in Philippines as long as China does not resolve its disputes with its neighbors.

I don't see your point, america has no leg to stand on in anything either way, they are not part of the dispute. They've never joined or ratified UNCLOS even. China never hammers them on this, along with Diego Garcia and chagos islands, which is an illegal occupation under UN law. Like even usa and uk cannot deny it. China should be hammering them about this every single time they talk about rules based order or anything. Same as iraq invasion and everything else which they are starting to do more now.

You think china will suddenly do alliances and have overseas naval bases in Vietnam, phillipines, Indonesia and they will all side with china against usa just because china makes concessions and resolves the dispute for a few islands? That is fantasy. They will keep doing what they are doing because that is game theory and logical to hedge against china power. Otherwise they will just be Chinese vassal state with zero leverage in the situation you foresee. Why would they do that? If they can do that, then why would they even argue with china over "few rocks" as you put it?

China actually needs them for peripheral/expanded defense and early warning vs usa, and also to keep other SCS nations in line with power projection since there are runways and other things on the islands, and gives china a permanent presence in one of the most strategic and contested regions in the world.

Even if china gave up all claims it would still be disputed by Taiwan, by Vietnam, phillipines, Indonesia, Malaysia etc etc. It's not just china's bi lateral issue or everyone vs china, it's everyone vs everyone, and china has the biggest stick and biggest soft power. It holds all the cards and time is on chinas side. Just like for taiwan, it doesn't need to make any moves and just keep doing what it's doing. Usa and others can't do anything. It also makes china consistent and demonstrates Chinese will and resolve to the world. If you can give this up, what's next, Taiwan? Indian border? Where does this meekness stop? Why should china even be meek when it's strong? If it was anyone else they would have used much more force already, both hard and soft power. China's rise has been the most peaceful of all superpowers.

Vietnam itself has long foreign policy of 3 nos, no alliances same as china, no joining with other countries to target third country and I forgot the last one but something similar. Phillipines hosting us base or whatever makes no difference, if it came down to total war usa is still 10000 km away and china can still hit mainland usa anyway without needing to leave china. Usa is just wasting it's money in those overseas bases since it can never attack china in total war anyway.

If total war really broke out between china and usa over say Taiwan, I don't see any third country getting involved. Including usa, let alone Japan or sk or phillipines or Vietnam. It would just make them targets for zero gain. Just like no one helped Ukraine directly with boots on the ground, same logic applies to Taiwan.

They can only do sanctions or whatever, but even there, china has its own cards to play and has 1.4 billion people and plenty of other countries it can trade with, ala belt and road and global south. Usa could not even win a trade war or unite it's own western vassals against china, let alone unite the whole world against china, where half or more of them are countries that hate usa and west and have been bullied and colonised by them for centuries (just like china).

If china is really forced, it would be better to resolve border with India, and china India Russia, Africa, south America + middle east(more neutral) could basically just be their own market and the west would be the ones begging to access it. India is not dumb, they know they are next after china if they keep rising.

China and CPC/PLA know exactly what they are doing. It's you who needs to study history and current day reality and realpolitik. Appeasement will get china nowhere. Only strength matters, and china is getting stronger everyday faster than everyone. Island dispute is nothing, china needs those islands for security and also needs to keep it's claims to defend it's sovereignty and credibility, and also like korean war, needs to show it's power. Otherwise if you give an inch, they will take a mile. Korean war could have also been argued that china should not go to war but in hindsight it showed the world china was no longer the weak man of Asia and guaranteed china's peaceful rise for 70 years and counting now. That was one thing Mao was right about and why he's so respected still. No one respects an appeaser. Especially not your enemies/adversaries who have been trying to contain and overthrow and divide you for centuries now and who is racist against you in every way. China needs to keep doing it's own thing and get the respect it deserves. No one will give it to you for free, in fact they are actively trying to slander and make china the bad guy etc. Appeasement only plays into their game and proves them right. The only way to win is not to play their game and just keep getting stronger and richer and china doing it's own thing at it's own pace for it's own interests. That's what a great superpower is. And that's what china is, and what china should keep doing.

China only played under usa and UN rules because it benefits china. If it doesn't, no need to feel bad about war or conflict or others "not liking china". Same as usa, Russia etc. You think usa or west cares if Chinese(20% of the world population and number 2 economy) likes usa? You think usa or west looks at south east Asia, India etc as friends or equal? Nah. They are only using them as throwaway sacrificial pawns and look at them with even less respect than china and Chinese. Fear itself is a form of respect, and that's mainly what usa uses these days also. Through military force or sanctions etc.

China just needs to improve it's informational warfare capacity. Usa is still heaps and bounds ahead in "public relations", while china is still calling theirs "propaganda department". Still too many old school communist mentality types, not updated for the new tik tok social media age. But with new people like zhao Lijian and hua chunying and Chen weihua types and more outspoken types and more international engagement, china's time will come. They know how to play the game.
 

tphuang

Brigadier
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I don't see your point, america has no leg to stand on in anything either way, they are not part of the dispute. They've never joined or ratified UNCLOS even. China never hammers them on this, along with Diego Garcia and chagos islands, which is an illegal occupation under UN law. Like even usa and uk cannot deny it. China should be hammering them about this every single time they talk about rules based order or anything. Same as iraq invasion and everything else which they are starting to do more now.

That's not how things work. China is big and other countries are small. As long as China is having disputes with them and making unilateral decisions, America can come in and say "you are bullying little countries, you should stop bullying them". When in reality, they want to get in on the gas exploration deals and have their freedom of navigation. Now, if you settle this with Indonesia and Philippines (again, Vietnam is a different story) and settle on the Spratley claims with them and exploration rights with them. You all tell America that you have it settled. How can America butt its head further into the dispute if every country other than Vietnam (who they are not friendly with) tells them we don't need you in this debate and stay outside of air space? And we want to work with China to enforce EEZ rights here, so we don't want your naval ships round here.

Again, how does China expect itself to dominate its backyard in Southeast Asia unless it can settle border disputes with those neighbors. They should be able to do it with Philippines and Indonesia. Why does Philippines care about a couple of rocks that China already control getting expanded. They just care about the commercial rights there. Same with Indonesia. Back 10 years ago, China didn't have the weapons to export to these countries. Now, it has money and advanced weaponry. It can continue to increase its influence in these countries. It can export advanced weapons here. These countries should be in China's orbit if it plays its cards right.

You talk appeasement and strength. How has that strategy worked out so far? Are these countries jumping into China's arms?

Ask yourself, why is Cambodia, Burma and Thailand closer to China than Indonesia and Philippines? Why can't China be the main protector of the region if it settles its disputes with Indonesia and Philippines.
 

tphuang

Brigadier
VIP Professional
Registered Member
That is defeatist attitude and weak knee believing in western propaganda. Those scs is definitely needed as a sanctuary for China nuclear sub and the air base in those islet will provide protection for those submarine. China geography is practically guarantee isolation in case of war and will be bottle necked in first island chain. Those bases in SCSis is bastion for China nuclear sub It is not just little rock. Anyone who believe in it is just naïve coming from someone who claim to be smart analyst of Chinese military.

Another thing why care for Indonesia good will that country is basket case and has been murdering, looting Chinese and raping Chinese women for ages I guess this naïve TP huang never read history of SEA

It's such a safe bastion for Chinese nuclear subs that USN SSN are constantly following them around there and USN carriers constantly do large exercises around there. You really want PLAN SSN to be protected? How about have you and your neighbors collectively telling USN that they are not wanted around there? You are out of touch with reality. Settling your disputes with your neighbors does not mean you have to give up any of the islands you current control.

Oh and I understand Indonesian history when it comes to Chinese people. I took many trips to Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. In fact, I plan to go there again this year. I know the problems facing Chinese people in Malaysia. I know how many Chinese Indonesians moved in Singapore to escape Muslim persecution. But guess what? Chinese population there still controls 70% of Indonesian wealth. Do you know that? Do you know that one of the most recent Jakarta Mayor was Chinese? Have you been to any of these countries?

How does that have anything to do with settling your border issues with those countries?

China settled its border claims with Russia and give up a lot of claims along the way. And now it has an ally. Why should it not try to settle things with Indonesia and Philippines? How does China expect to have similar type of relationship with these countries as it does with Thailand and Cambodia if it continues to have disputes with them?
 

Ex0

New Member
Registered Member
That's not how things work. China is big and other countries are small. As long as China is having disputes with them and making unilateral decisions, America can come in and say "you are bullying little countries, you should stop bullying them".
China isn't making unilateral decisions, it's negotiating with them currently. If it was making unilateral decisions, it would just use military force and take all it's claims by force.

Who cares what america says, america will talk shit and slander china no matter what it does. That's what america does. In reality its usa who's bullying and sanctioning and invading smaller weaker countries, not china. This again backs up my point, china's information and media game is too weak, and china needs to hit back much harder everytime. Not only doing defense, but preemptive offense/defense however you want to look at it.


When in reality, they want to get in on the gas exploration deals and have their freedom of navigation. Now, if you settle this with Indonesia and Philippines (again, Vietnam is a different story) and settle on the Spratley claims with them and exploration rights with them. You all tell America that you have it settled. How can America butt its head further into the dispute if every country other than Vietnam (who they are not friendly with) tells them we don't need you in this debate and stay outside of air space? And we want to work with China to enforce EEZ rights here, so we don't want your naval ships round here.

You seem to quite naive about geopolitics and game theory, and especially america and it's aims.

America will always butt it's head into and try and divide and conquer. It doesn't matter even if those countries ally with china militarily and scream that usa should not be in SCS. Usa will keep doing it's FONOPS regardless, and usa will then turn on those countries and do propaganda against them and put pressure and sanctions on them also. Usa will coup them and fund opposition and terrorist groups inside their countries, nothing is out of the question for usa. Doesn't matter how hypocritical usa is, as long as it controls the narrative and international media, it can get away with it for the most part. China needs to up it's game in this area and stop letting usa get away with such moves without any big price. That's the only area I would criticize china. But china seems to be waking up, so I can give them time. Things won't change overnight and china needs to invest much more in this area to counter usa and west.
Again, how does China expect itself to dominate its backyard in Southeast Asia unless it can settle border disputes with those neighbors. They should be able to do it with Philippines and Indonesia. Why does Philippines care about a couple of rocks that China already control getting expanded. They just care about the commercial rights there. Same with Indonesia. Back 10 years ago, China didn't have the weapons to export to these countries. Now, it has money and advanced weaponry. It can continue to increase its influence in these countries. It can export advanced weapons here. These countries should be in China's orbit if it plays its cards right.

What do you mean? China already dominates, and every day that passes china is only getting stronger militarily and economically relative to everyone else in the region, and also relative to usa. This isn't just for the region, but for the whole world.

China's influence is increasing regardless of the disputes, and like I said, it's not just about china vs everyone else but everyone vs everyone. Like I said, china is currently in talks and negotiating for law of conduct in SCS and what everyone in the region is committed to. Resource rights can also be negotiated, and they are. But china can probably just keep status quo and dragging it out while it keeps building it's strength and leverage. In the end china can get more out of the settlement, or china can just use force and take it all. China doesn't need to make concessions imo. So what if some hardcore nationalists in vn or pH doesn't like china? Their gov is forced to deal with china anyway due to china's size and strength.

You talk appeasement and strength. How has that strategy worked out so far? Are these countries jumping into China's arms?

Ask yourself, why is Cambodia, Burma and Thailand closer to China than Indonesia and Philippines? Why can't China be the main protector of the region if it settles its disputes with Indonesia and Philippines.
We seem to have two different goals. I don't care if haters jump into china's arms or not, I only care about china's interests and china being strong.

Main protector of the region? You want china to play world police and meddle in other countries internal issues? I don't. China only needs to care about itself and it's own people, no other countries. Let usa play world police, I'm fine with that. I ask you the same question. How is playing world police working out for usa, and also for the world and countries usa "protects"? It's just wasting it's own money, lives, making endless enemies, which china then capitalizes on. Aka usa destroys, china builds.

Staying neutral, caring about yourself and making yourself strong and respected should be the name of the game, not playing world police, not creating blocs, overseas bases and endless wars and divide and conquer. That is an old colonial/imperial game and it's failing(to china no less). China's way is much more peaceful and beneficial, not only for china, but also for the world. Peaceful rise, win win, unstoppable rise, no real enemies, what's not to like.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
It's such a safe bastion for Chinese nuclear subs that USN SSN are constantly following them around there and USN carriers constantly do large exercises around there. You really want PLAN SSN to be protected? How about have you and your neighbors collectively telling USN that they are not wanted around there? You are out of touch with reality. Settling your disputes with your neighbors does not mean you have to give up any of the islands you current control.

Oh and I understand Indonesian history when it comes to Chinese people. I took many trips to Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. In fact, I plan to go there again this year. I know the problems facing Chinese people in Malaysia. I know how many Chinese Indonesians moved in Singapore to escape Muslim persecution. But guess what? Chinese population there still controls 70% of Indonesian wealth. Do you know that? Do you know that one of the most recent Jakarta Mayor was Chinese? Have you been to any of these countries?

How does that have anything to do with settling your border issues with those countries?

China settled its border claims with Russia and give up a lot of claims along the way. And now it has an ally. Why should it not try to settle things with Indonesia and Philippines? How does China expect to have similar type of relationship with these countries as it does with Thailand and Cambodia if it continues to have disputes with them?
There is nothing wrong with free passage in SCS but what you propose is recognizing the Indo and Malaysia claim on SCS when China is now has defacto control of those Island . I don't what is your logic ?

Chinese control 70% of economy is a myth because it does not include Indo SOE Jakartat mayor A Hok was imprisoned 2years due to slander and faulty justice system. And due to the pressure of muslim majority who hate Chinese and want to convert all chinese men. Indo is one of the most rascist country in the world where they forced Chinese to change name and at one time forbid any sign of Chinese culture or language and yet you want to befriend them. There is no border issue with Indonesia but there is problem with sea resources as China claim the right to fish in SCS due to historical reason. And China is right Natuna island was at one time Chinese fishing colony Now they are moved out from the island
 

tphuang

Brigadier
VIP Professional
Registered Member
There is nothing wrong with free passage in SCS but what you propose is recognizing the Indo and Malaysia claim on SCS when China is now has defacto control of those Island . I don't what is your logic ?

Chinese control 70% of economy is a myth because it does not include Indo SOE Jakartat mayor A Hok was imprisoned 2years due to slander and faulty justice system. And due to the pressure of muslim majority who hate Chinese and want to convert all chinese men. Indo is one of the most rascist country in the world where they forced Chinese to change name and at one time forbid any sign of Chinese culture or language and yet you want to befriend them. There is no border issue with Indonesia but there is problem with sea resources as China claim the right to fish in SCS due to historical reason. And China is right Natuna island was at one time Chinese fishing colony Now they are moved out from the island
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and see which countries control what. The vast majority of islands in Spratleys are little rocks of little value. China, at great economic cost, has expanded 4 of its controlled islands into real military stations. I would argue that's all China needs to dominate south China Sea. The other little rocks that Vietnam and Phillippines have are of little value. The next thing it needs is to have military bases closer to Australia and Malacca straits. It should be pretty obvious to this thread why China would find these things beneficial.

So, all China needs is to keep its expanded islands floating since they could very easily sink from this ongoing crisis we have called the climate change. Work with Phillipines, Malaysia and Indonesia to divide up the rocks and then work out some kind of model in dividing up the gas drilling rights. I would say there is much greater value in settling these issues than arguing over how many rocks they have. Once you do that, try to sell as much weapons to Indonesia and Malaysia as possible so that they are in China's oribts. Continue to invest in these countries and influence them.

As for your other point, the reality is that Chinese people control the Indonesian economy which has caused a lot of jealousy in Indonesian population. What better way to help those people out than bringing Indonesia into China's orbit.

Main protector of the region? You want china to play world police and meddle in other countries internal issues? I don't. China only needs to care about itself and it's own people, no other countries. Let usa play world police, I'm fine with that. I ask you the same question. How is playing world police working out for usa, and also for the world and countries usa "protects"? It's just wasting it's own money, lives, making endless enemies, which china then capitalizes on. Aka usa destroys, china builds.

Staying neutral, caring about yourself and making yourself strong and respected should be the name of the game, not playing world police, not creating blocs, overseas bases and endless wars and divide and conquer. That is an old colonial/imperial game and it's failing(to china no less). China's way is much more peaceful and beneficial, not only for china, but also for the world. Peaceful rise, win win, unstoppable rise, no real enemies, what's not to like.
Everyone needs friends. US claims all of the Americas as its background through the Monroe doctrine. How do you expect China to secure it's trade and energy route without more allies and bases around the world? With what? US can cut china's oil trade off by just moving a couple of its carriers groups over. If you think China should be a superpower, then it cannot trust that when global resources are being crunched up, America will not take it all for itself and its allies.
 

Ex0

New Member
Registered Member
Everyone needs friends. US claims all of the Americas as its background through the Monroe doctrine. How do you expect China to secure it's trade and energy route without more allies and bases around the world? With what? US can cut china's oil trade off by just moving a couple of its carriers groups over. If you think China should be a superpower, then it cannot trust that when global resources are being crunched up, America will not take it all for itself and its allies.
What you consider "friends", I consider vassals or countries working together for their own convenience and interests. They already do this with china, china works with everyone and has no enemies, unlike usa. This is the beauty of china's position and foreign policy. It csn work with both north and south Korea, can work with Israel and Palestine, can work with Iran and Saudi, etc etc. All of usas closest "allies" have china as their biggest trade partner and I see no reason why that will change. Even under usa pressure it has not happened. China is still Australias largest trade partner, trade with usa has only increased since trade war, etc etc.

As for trade routes, again I refer to my previous post. Tell me which country/s will block china's trade routes and why. And I'll tell you why it won't happen. They can't even stop buying chinese goods and "Chinese trade routes" benefit themselves just as much as china. Including usa.

Blocking trade routes itself is an act of war. So tell me which country/s will declare war on china and block trade routes and I'll tell you why it won't happen.

China could easily also block all the world's routes with submarines sink trade ships also(and shut down global maritime trade) it ain't no thing. China can target any country on earth and devastate it without even leaving china, including usa. Again ain't no thing.

China is connected by land and like I said can trade with Russia, middle east, India, even Europe by land. It will be usa and Japan and Taiwan etc who will suffer the most, not china if they want to play this maritime blockade or attack game. That's not even counting the fact that like I said, is an act of war and china can directly target those countries without ever leaving china.

Not to mention that china is the main producer of everything for the world, if they block china they are just blocking themselves.

Do I need to post that comedy video from Aussie tv where they ask why they need to upgrade their defenses to protect their trade routes from their biggest trade partner? Makes no sense. If they want they can just stop buying and trading with china. Which like I said will hurt them more than china in the end.
 

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