PLA ICBM Force in 2016

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
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I disagree with that last statement. They may have possessed the technologies but certainly not the finances and manufacturing capability in the past.
They might've had the potential to try for the capability, but that would have stopped progress in other areas. Remember one of the main reasons the USSR dissolved?
 

Martian

Senior Member
I disagree with that last statement. They may have possessed the technologies but certainly not the finances and manufacturing capability in the past.
They might've had the potential to try for the capability, but that would have stopped progress in other areas. Remember one of the main reasons the USSR dissolved?

China has $2.83 trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves. China passed the 1/2 trillion mark a long time ago. If it were a national priority, China could have embarked on a massive build-up of ICBMs ten years ago. Manufacturing 100 ICBMs with three MIRVed warheads will have virtually no effect on a 1/2 trillion foreign exchange reserve.

It never happened. Why? I have offered a reasonable explanation. I have not heard of a competing reasonable explanation.
 
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Blitzo

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China has $2.3 trillion dollars in foreign exchange reserves. China passed the $1 trillion mark a long time ago. If it were a national priority, China could have embarked on a massive build-up of ICBMs ten years ago. Manufacturing 100 ICBMs with three MIRVed warheads will have virtually no effect on a $1 trillion foreign exchange reserve.

It never happened. Why? I have offered a reasonable explanation. I have not heard of a competing reasonable explanation.

Sure they could have but would have screwed their economy over, even with the exchange reserves -- I suppose one could argue they would still "be able" to make that many nukes, so long as you reach that kind of result but it would be more sensible to use a scenario that they can get as many nukes as they need/want while being able to keep a good economic pace.
And this is only fairly recent, I thought you were referring to the midst of the Cold War that China could have manufactured tons of nukes (it would've been more relevant then as well, no?), and I'm sure you'd agree that they didn't have the finances nor manufacturing base to make a lotta nukes, right?
 

Martian

Senior Member
Sure they could have but would have screwed their economy over, even with the exchange reserves -- I suppose one could argue they would still "be able" to make that many nukes, so long as you reach that kind of result but it would be more sensible to use a scenario that they can get as many nukes as they need/want while being able to keep a good economic pace.
And this is only fairly recent, I thought you were referring to the midst of the Cold War that China could have manufactured tons of nukes (it would've been more relevant then as well, no?), and I'm sure you'd agree that they didn't have the finances nor manufacturing base to make a lotta nukes, right?

In any case, China is absurdly wealthy as a nation and it is the world's largest manufacturer today. I have proffered my explanation of the indirect MAD deterrence to justify China's glacial increase in ICBMs. I believe that my theory explains China's past and current behaviors.

You can't claim that a Chinese ICBM build-up would significantly affect China's economy today.

We're back to the question of China taking her time in building ICBMs. Once again, I offer my "let's borrow the Russian arsenal by nuking them into a wasteland" theory. In response to an U.S. first strike, the reaction by China and the subsequent retaliation by Russia are both eminently logical.

It is just common sense. You would do the same thing in their shoes.
 
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Martian

Senior Member
I'll try to explain my indirect "mutually assured destruction" again.

1) Assuming the launch of a massive U.S. first strike on China and a significantly weaker (e.g. less ICBMs) retaliatory launch by China, China will launch all thermonuclear SRBMs and IRBMs against Russia. Why? China does not want Russians lording over them for the next few millennia.

2) Now that Russia is in smoldering ruins, do the Russians want the Americans lording over them for the next few millennia? I'm going to guess "no." The Russians will launch their thermonuclear ICBMs against the United States.

Why is IronsightSniper disagreeing with step #2? Does anyone else think the Russians will just sit on their hands and accept a devastated China and Russia only? Or do you think the Russians will take the Americans with them?
 

Blitzo

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In any case, China is absurdly wealthy as a nation and it is the world's largest manufacturer today. I have proffered my explanation of the indirect MAD deterrence to justify China's glacial increase in ICBMs. I believe that my theory explains China's past and current behaviors.

You can't claim that a Chinese ICBM build-up would significantly affect China's economy today.

We're back to the question of China taking her time in building ICBMs. Once again, I offer my "let's borrow the Russian arsenal by nuking them into a wasteland" theory. In response to an U.S. first strike, the reaction by China and the subsequent retaliation by Russia are both eminently logical.

It is just common sense. You would do the same thing in their shoes.

I'm not in direct disagreement with your PRC-USA-Russia MAD scenario, but I do believe if China were to go for a massive build up of nukes to levels comparable to the US or Russia it would adversely effect its economy. I'm not sure how much, because we obviously do not know how much one complete ICBM costs along with the associated costs of manufacturing expansion to compensate, the associated maintenance, training of extra personnel... the list is never ending.
China isn't that rich compared to western countries, espicially not on a per capita basis which is what effects individuals most and what in turn effects government policy. The local population would not take it well, nor would other countries, if they discovered China was spending so much on nukes instead of economic growth. So maybe the PRC economy could sustain a nuke spree but without correct justification it would effect the economy either through sanctions or local discontent.

Technically I agree with your reasoning now, but the PRC has so much development and growth required, that if a build up of ICBMs could effect growth to even a small margin it would be deemed unacceptable and dangerous by the government.
 

IronsightSniper

Junior Member
Re: China's Nuclear Strike Force

I believe that you are incredibly naive. However, there is nothing that I can do to elevate your level of understanding. The relationships between nations, in both economic and military terms, are complex.

In your response of "I don't get it," you have refuted the maxims of "use them (e.g. thermonuclear weapons) or lose them," "mutually assured destruction," and "nationalism/primacy of my country." There have been endless books written by scholars, military generals, and think-tanks on these subjects.

If you believe that I am in error, I suggest you offer a plausible explanation as to why China has not been in a rush to build a massive ICBM force during the last 44 years. China has possessed the technologies, finances, and manufacturing capability to build as many thermonuclear warheads as she desires.

Incredibly naive or incredibly aware. I'm just stating the simple absurdity of your assumptions, Russia has more to gain from a world without China than the U.S. does, if anything, the eradication of China would only mean less competition for Russia and the U.S., to the former who's a superpower, and to the latter, is not even a superpower.

A plausible explanation for China's lack of nuclear expansion would be that they couldn't do it. The Chinese economy didn't really do anything until the 70s and 80s, and even then, proliferating nuclear weapons would of costed them billions of dollars, which would of wasted money that could of been spent elsewhere. Besides from that, it is highly probable that China did not need it's own Nuclear Triad, as they were protected by the Soviet Union until their split.

I'll try to explain my indirect "mutually assured destruction" again.

1) Assuming the launch of a massive U.S. first strike on China and a significantly weaker (e.g. less ICBMs) retaliatory launch by China, China will launch all thermonuclear SRBMs and IRBMs against Russia. Why? China does not want Russians lording over them for the next few millennia.

2) Now that Russia is in smoldering ruins, do the Russians want the Americans lording over them for the next few millennia? I'm going to guess "no." The Russians will launch their thermonuclear ICBMs against the United States.

Why is IronsightSniper disagreeing with step #2? Does anyone else think the Russians will just sit on their hands and accept a devastated China and Russia only? Or do you think the Russians will take the Americans with them?

It's simple really. Just because their economy is ruined does not mean Russia will be "lorded" by the West for the next few decades. In fact, a limited nuclear retaliation of 100-200 nukes would pretty much wipe China off the map. That'll leave about ~1000 nukes for Russia, which in itself, acts as a political card. I.E. "help us rebuild or f*ck this!" It's simply more advantageous for the Russians to not destroy the West (or even the World) and just leave China doomed and Russia crippled.
 
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Martian

Senior Member
Re: China's Nuclear Strike Force

Incredibly naive or incredibly aware. I'm just stating the simple absurdity of your assumptions, Russia has more to gain from a world without China than the U.S. does, if anything, the eradication of China would only mean less competition for Russia and the U.S., to the former who's a superpower, and to the latter, is not even a superpower.

A plausible explanation for China's lack of nuclear expansion would be that they couldn't do it. The Chinese economy didn't really do anything until the 70s and 80s, and even then, proliferating nuclear weapons would of costed them billions of dollars, which would of wasted money that could of been spent elsewhere. Besides from that, it is highly probable that China did not need it's own Nuclear Triad, as they were protected by the Soviet Union until their split.

It's simple really. Just because their economy is ruined does not mean Russia will be "lorded" by the West for the next few decades. In fact, a limited nuclear retaliation of 100-200 nukes would pretty much wipe China off the map. That'll leave about ~1000 nukes for Russia, which in itself, acts as a political card. I.E. "help us rebuild or f*ck this!" It's simply more advantageous for the Russians to not destroy the West (or even the World) and just leave China doomed and Russia crippled.

I am flabbergasted when you write stuff like that (e.g. look at bolded sentence above). The Sino-Soviet split was in 1961. China developed her first atomic weapon in 1964 and hydrogen bomb in 1967. China's first DF-5 ICBM was successfully launched in 1971.

China has always needed her own nuclear triad. That was the whole point of the thermonuclear weapon and ICBM programs. The Sino-Soviet split preceded China's thermonuclear and ICBM developments by many years and it is irrelevant to China's need for a nuclear triad.
 
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xywdx

Junior Member
Re: China's Nuclear Strike Force

It's simple really. Just because their economy is ruined does not mean Russia will be "lorded" by the West for the next few decades. In fact, a limited nuclear retaliation of 100-200 nukes would pretty much wipe China off the map. That'll leave about ~1000 nukes for Russia, which in itself, acts as a political card. I.E. "help us rebuild or f*ck this!" It's simply more advantageous for the Russians to not destroy the West (or even the World) and just leave China doomed and Russia crippled.

Trying to support 1000 nukes with a ruined economy will make them worse off than North Korea, or are you seriously suggesting US will pay to maintain Russia's 1000 nukes?
Also what makes you think their communications and infrastructure after getting nuked will support a credible nuclear deterrent?
Chances are the active nukes already have their destination predetermined(Beijing, Washington, London, Paris, Berlin, Sidney, etc.), once hostile nukes are in the air it's fire away.
You need to take a step back and reread what Martian said, then try to put yourself inline with the Russian's perspective.
 

bingo

Junior Member
I'll try to explain my indirect "mutually assured destruction" again.

1) Assuming the launch of a massive U.S. first strike on China and a significantly weaker (e.g. less ICBMs) retaliatory launch by China, China will launch all thermonuclear SRBMs and IRBMs against Russia. Why? China does not want Russians lording over them for the next few millennia.

2) Now that Russia is in smoldering ruins, do the Russians want the Americans lording over them for the next few millennia? I'm going to guess "no." The Russians will launch their thermonuclear ICBMs against the United States.

Why is IronsightSniper disagreeing with step #2? Does anyone else think the Russians will just sit on their hands and accept a devastated China and Russia only? Or do you think the Russians will take the Americans with them?

Wow !

Truly Brilliant.
 
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