Persian Gulf & Middle East Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

I've just been skimming over a few news articles from within the last 18 hours or so.

The Telegraph is reporting Russia is building a base in Syria. There is talk about a control tower, housing units and preparations for airlift. Looks like Russia is at least serious about building a logistics hub, which would of course be the beginning of any larger scale intervention.

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to repeat their demand that any lasting settlement in Syria would require an end to the Assad regime.

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Then there is a longer story in the dailybeast. It picks up reports of syrian locals that claim to have seen Russians in the country. They report russian officers meet with syrian and iranian counterparts. Looks like a forming of a new, concrete coalition there.
Also, small numbers of russian soldiers are seen embedded with syrian troops already.

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I believe several factors are at play here.

I'm quiet certain one is the russian intent to keep it's Med sea port in Syria and with it access to the Med, a place to which Russia wants to return with it's presence.

Then, in a "renewed" coalition with Iran and Syria, Russia could eventually return to a prominent role in the middle east, intending to establish themselves as a counterpart to the US - Saudi - Emirate "coalition".

Coming back to all those news articles, I don't think though that even a Russian involvement could further escelate the situation. I don't think anything really could anymore. There will now also be overlaps between the anti IS and the pro Assad coalition.

For year now the Moscow express has been running a shuttle service from Black Sea to Latakia

Without Russia Assad would have left years ago

There is no way Assad could have lasted this long

And remember Assads father was a fighter pilot training in Soviet Union the Assad family has long historical ties with Russia and Putin knows this he will not let Assad fall

On 20 August 2015 the Alligator class landing ship Nikolay Filchenkov made one of her passages through Istanbul. This is the very first time equipment has been seen on the deck of the cargo ship and was visible

The destination is not declared ahem

asif iqbal said:

And remember Assads father was a fighter pilot training in Soviet Union the Assad family has long historical ties with Russia and Putin knows this he will not let Assad fall

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Though I would guess the practical advantages of keeping (long time allay) Assad in power today are even more important then the personal ties?

Scratch said:

There will now also be overlaps between the anti IS and the pro Assad coalition.

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The only potential candidate for that is the US. Turkey and Saudi Arabia obviously have other ideas and they dominate the anti-Assad camp.

PanAsian said:

The only potential candidate for that is the US. Turkey and Saudi Arabia obviously have other ideas and they dominate the anti-Assad camp.

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Well, actually, when I made my above statement, I had Iran in mind. Obviously, they were on the pro Assad side from the very beginning in Syria. But over time, with their engagement in Iraq, they also became an anti IS player. Not necessarily along with, but besides the "western" + Iraq & Jordan coalition.

I believe those two "campaigns" are likely to merge even more in the future with the tacit approval of other players and in concert with the Russian effort.

Scratch said:

Well, actually, when I made my above statement, I had Iran in mind. Obviously, they were on the pro Assad side from the very beginning in Syria. But over time, with their engagement in Iraq, they also became an anti IS player. Not necessarily along with, but besides the "western" + Iraq & Jordan coalition.

I believe those two "campaigns" are likely to merge even more in the future with the tacit approval of other players and in concert with the Russian effort.

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I have little time today, or this week for that matter, so I hurried through NYT and WaPo but I saw in both an article with a remark that if Russia were to send aircraft to Syria to attack IS this would complicate the activities of US and its allies, as if the Russians might attack IS targets that US don't want to be attacked.

delft said:

...as if the Russians might attack IS targets that US don't want to be attacked.

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No, Delft...please do not bring in those old conspiracy theories.

It would be because the US air operations might conflict with Russian air operations, and flying two sets of high performance jets in similar areas could pose dangers to both crews...not to mention mistaken identities and unintentional firing on one another.

Clearly, the answer to this would be for the US and Russia to cooperate with one another in terms of scheduling and targets. No need to share sensitive data...but they could easily establish areas of operation, scheduling, and target selection ayt would negate the potential for danger.

Putin is having a coup here. With the current US admin's relative inaction...but with the humanitarian crisis, destruction of antiquities, and the ongoing conflict with no definitive progress...Russia is imply saying, in effect, "we will come in and do what others are unwilling to do."

This is something the US will have to either respond to, or be further relegated to impotency in the circumstance.

The correct way to respond, IMHO, would be to team up with Putin and make the attacks on ISIS even more effective and devastating.

Jeff Head said:

No, Delft...please do not bring in those old conspiracy theories.

It would be because the US air operations might conflict with Russian air operations, and flying two sets of high performance jets in similar areas could pose dangers to both crews...not to mention mistaken identities and unintentional firing on one another.

Clearly, the answer to this would be for the US and Russia to cooperate with one another in terms of scheduling and targets. No need to share sensitive data...but they could easily establish areas of operation, scheduling, and target selection ayt would negate the potential for danger.

Putin is having a coup here. With the current US admin's relative inaction...but with the humanitarian crisis, destruction of antiquities, and the ongoing conflict with no definitive progress...Russia is imply saying, in effect, "we will come in and do what others are unwilling to do."

This is something the US will have to either respond to, or be further relegated to impotency in the circumstance.

The correct way to respond, IMHO, would be to team up with Putin and make the attacks on ISIS even more effective and devastating.

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I really want to see that happen as well however I seriously doubt the the us administration would cooperate with the russkis. Too much political baggage would come from said partnership even if just temporary.
To 'side' with the Russians would also be perceived as pro Iran and Obama would get way too much heat for that. Then there are also the Saudis, turkey and other gulf states which would most likely object to such an agreement.
At thre end of the day I believe that there are many folks that would rather watch the world burn than to do what is right.

Jeff Head said:

No, Delft...please do not bring in those old conspiracy theories.

It would be because the US air operations might conflict with Russian air operations, and flying two sets of high performance jets in similar areas could pose dangers to both crews...not to mention mistaken identities and unintentional firing on one another.

Clearly, the answer to this would be for the US and Russia to cooperate with one another in terms of scheduling and targets. No need to share sensitive data...but they could easily establish areas of operation, scheduling, and target selection ayt would negate the potential for danger.

Putin is having a coup here. With the current US admin's relative inaction...but with the humanitarian crisis, destruction of antiquities, and the ongoing conflict with no definitive progress...Russia is imply saying, in effect, "we will come in and do what others are unwilling to do."

This is something the US will have to either respond to, or be further relegated to impotency in the circumstance.

The correct way to respond, IMHO, would be to team up with Putin and make the attacks on ISIS even more effective and devastating.

Click to expand...

Just so.