Does it even matter at this point? Their greatest opponent literally just created a bill called the big beautiful bill (real name). They can probably put a toddler in that position and end result won’t be any different.
Official Xi Jinping Thought discussion thread
- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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Does it even matter at this point? Their greatest opponent literally just created a bill called the big beautiful bill (real name). They can probably put a toddler in that position and end result won’t be any different.
It is widely believed that Ding Xuexiang and He Lifeng are the most trusted advisors. Li Shulei is up and coming, probably as close as you can get to the "next Wang Huning" with the added benefit of administrative experience.
What do you mean? The great firewall?
If it's about that then I think you are bound to be disappointed. Probability is very low for that to happen.
Who do you guys think is likely to succeed Xi after this 5 years? Or do you think he will carry on for a few more terms?
my guess is he will do a fourth term, that'll take him to 2032 at 79 years old. A fifth term is possible because China has a stated plan to achieve modernization by 2035, Xi can conceivably opt to remain at the helm all the way to then. The risk here is obviously his age, but it is not without precedent - Deng was 85 when he ousted Zhao as a result of Tiananmen, and 88 when he traveled south to revitalize reform.
He should really do more sport and lose some weight, being physically and cognitively able at high age is not unusual but certainly not guaranteed. If he wants to lead until 2035, then he should work for it.
I think we will get an idea of how many terms Xi wants in 2027, during the 21st Party Congress. If relatively young people are promoted to the Politburo standing committee (preferably 50-60 years old) then one of them will be a likely successor to him in 2032. Xi was appointed to Hu's Politburo standing committee in 2007 during the 17th Party Congress at the age of 54 and simultaneously Li Keqiang was appointed at the age of 52.
Given the older age of the people on the current standing committee, it's clear that Xi wants a 4th term with no younger member able to be his obvious successor right now and will most likely get it secured considering his standing in the party (barring some health related issues which force him to step down)
Given the older age of the people on the current standing committee, it's clear that Xi wants a 4th term with no younger member able to be his obvious successor right now and will most likely get it secured considering his standing in the party (barring some health related issues which force him to step down)
well if he were to do a fifth term then it should go to 2037, by which time he would be 85. very advanced age but again not unprecedented. personally i think four terms to 2032 is good enough and not overstay his welcome, but if Xi is not happy with his choices of successor he may opt to stay one more term to allow time to find one that he likes better.
that's the old playbook but that is no longer even a guarantee this day and age. I don't see Xi as the type that would tolerate a crown prince that may turn out to be another Lin Biao.
i have said this before, Xi is more likely than not to mess up on the succession question, because historical patterns are against him. Much more competent leaders in the past have messed up on this, no reason why he would not.
Why do you think he will mess up?
Afterall, before him Chinese leaders had a fairly good transition of power from one leader to another with 2 terms limits, so they already knew after their second term they will be leaving office and had to start preparing succession after their second term started. I agree that with Xi removing term limits then it might be a bit tricky now, since a strong leader like Xi himself can basically remain in office for life if he wants as long as he has monopolised power and the politburo(don't want him to become another Putin. Lol). Then again, I am hope he will be better than others and start preparing for his succession early at some point, better early than late actually.
By the way, I thought there was an age limit for Chinese leaders? Or have they removed them as well?
why not? like i said, you look at past leaders, even the best ones, have all messed this up. does Xi recognize this risk? I am certain that he does, but it doesn't mean that he can avoid it. Mao and Deng were all extremely cognizant of the succession question, neither of them did a great job on this, and same goes with many great emperors of the past. I think this is just the logic of power. When it is concentrated, the game becomes one of ass-kissing and you get the wrong guy. Not saying that Xi will absolutely mess up, I am just saying that the chances are not good.