North Korean Military.

siegecrossbow said:

By garner public support I mean that the North Koreans may not support him as much as they did his grandfather and father because he has little to show other than the fact that he is a Kim. When Kim Jong Il first became the ruler of NK a lot of people speculated that he might not reign comfortably since the people didn't like him as much as his father. Kim Il Sung was the great war hero who saved the North Koreans from the Americans while Kim Jong Il had accomplished little in comparison. While the North Koreans still worshipped Kim Jong Il fervently (proving the speculators wrong) I don't think the North Koreans loved him as much as Kim Il Sung. Now a teenage brat who Kim Jong Il had kept sheltered for the past two decades of his life is going to take the throne. If you were North Korean wouldn't you, too, be a little skeptical about little Kim's ruling abilities? Like I said the halo of the Kim Dynasty might be the only thing keeping him in power once he does and if he doesn't prove himself quickly (either as extremely harsh or exceedingly "benign") we may see the inner circle turning on him just as fast.

Click to expand...

MwRYum said:

The thing is, "Kim the 2nd" wasn't that much of a hardliner in reality, he did tried limited reforms but they all ended up canceled and half-arsed affair because of his insecure personality. DPRK kept the nation in a largely lock-down state, replaced contemporary religion with the "Kim cult" that'd surpass Mao's era China, and when that doesn't work iron-fist approach...

Still, domestic and international situations that'd face "Kim the 3rd" would be more grim - largely unknown even by the N.Koreans, next to nothing to show his worth other than his bloodline, no more Soviet backing, China only willing to keep the DPRK at a limbo state (without China's aid keep poring in, DPRK can't survive more than a month) for all its worth, tougher international sanctions, hardline eastern neighbours, hungry population, even the army doesn't get their full rations (their parades look grand and all, but can't hide the fact that their soldiers weren't as nourished as they should have been)...any reform would've to scrap the support beams that held up the regime (the "Kim cult" and lock-down state) - a vacuum of beliefs can't be filled with money as the new religion, as China have proved over the last 30 years.

That leaves the oldest trick in the book - risk a war to exploit the patriotism that the regime worked so hard to cultivate over the half century. Unlike the last 2 failed example - Argentina's military junta or Saddam's Iraq - who did so without proper preparations, DPRK tailored it to their strength and limitation for so long:
- very well prepared artillery positions all along the border of the DMZ, and the numbers to go with it - in terms of artillery warfare, it's as important in range, volume, surprise as to accuracy, which they got the first 2 covered for sure; surprise would be harder to attain but the warning time the S.Korean and Americans would've is still short enough to make it worth the while.
- air power is irrelevant to DPRK for this part their assets are totally outgunned and they know it, but if their ground assets could pull the punch quick enough they can gain some ground before the S.Korean and Americans can scramble significant air assets to dislodge them
- air defense wise what the DPRK got is either hopelessly outdated or untested in actual conflicts, but neither the Americans faced any enemy over since Vietnam that process significant modern air defense
- likewise would be their navel assets, which would be the lack of it to be accurate, all would depends how fast the S.Korea and American mobilize in actual combat situations
- in terms of ground warfare, DPRK is inferior in terms of hardware, even their best is behind the west by at least a generation or more, infantry seems to be pre-modernized China standard of equipment, not to mention Korean landscape isn't favor large armor formations, known and usable corridors are marked and "prepared" by the S.Koreans for just such an event - the only advantage is numbers and determination, but this isn't the 1950s anymore, tricks that the Chinese used to great effect won't work so well in the modern age. That said, this'd be real proving ground as to how much technology can make up for the lack in numbers.
- the spec-op sections of DPRK would be an interesting card to play. They've their fair share of records in espionage and infiltration, however the S.Koreans already caught on and displayed their abilities in countering them.

Yet, what the world are more interested would be this scenario: what'd it be if the DPRK implode before "Kim the 3rd" could stabilize his reign? What'd the major powers in the region do in such a case? What'd be the role of China in this? Losing DPRK probably means the "Asia-NATO" have their guns stationed just opposite Chinese border, and from there:
1. effectively blockaded Chinese's North Sea fleet homeport
2. several China's key industrial bases (to be specific, naval and aircraft productions) under threat
3. Beijing comes under even more threats from assets stationed just outside of its border, when there's no more a DPRK to provide a buffer zone.

We all know why China keep such a troublemaker around, to maintain a buffer zone more than to spite the Americans, so would China intervene? Or whoever seized power seek warmth and protection from?

Click to expand...

New Video Of North Korea's Leader-In-Waiting

11:50am UK, Monday December 27, 2010 - Kirsty Donald, Sky News Online

A new video of North Korea's leader-in-waiting has been broadcast on state TV as it emerged a train carrying his birthday gifts derailed in a possible act of sabotage.

The footage shows Kim Jong-un, thought to be in his mid-20s, attending a Workers' Party meeting in the capital Pyongyang in September. [...]
The video was filmed shortly after he was promoted to the rank of four-star general.
His birthday is believed to be on January 8.
A train packed with presents for him came off the rails on December 11, it emerged as the video was being broadcast. ...

Click to expand...

North Korean Air Force increases training flights
Military exercises are on the rise as tensions escalate
December 29, 2010

North Korea’s Air Force has launched more training exercises this month compared to the same period last year, in response to large-scale South Korean military drills conducted following the Yeonpyeong Island attack.

The vigor with which the Korean People’s Army Air Force, as it is officially known, has conducted the drills - which included simulated attacks on South Korea - has resulted in the crash of one MiG fighter jet, according to a source. There has been a 150 percent increase in the number of military drills from December 2009, and they have included soldiers from the Army and Navy.

“It shows that the North Korean military has been very tense after the attack on Yeonpyeong Island,” said a South Korean military source.

It is exceptional for North Korea to hold extensive winter flight drills because of a shortage of fuel.

According to sources, while the South Korean Army and Air Force were holding a joint firing drill last week, North Korea was conducting one of its own. Along the coast of South Pyongan Province, adjacent to the Yellow Sea, the North Korean military test-fired 122-mm multiple launch guns, which were used during the Yeonpyeong Island attack, as well as long-range artillery that could hit the Seoul metropolitan area. The artillery firing drills have caught the eye of the South Korean government because they were conducted five times this month.

North Korean artillery battalions along the military demarcation line have been observed practicing attacks on South Korean strongholds, which has led the South Korean military to believe that the North will attack the South’s military camps first in the event of additional provocations along the land border.

Movement near the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea has included frequent sightings of North Korean submarines and anti-submarine coastal artillery being brought in further toward the coast. Sources say the reason for North Korea’s attack on Yeonpyeong Island and it’s sinking of the Cheonan in March is closely connected to the succession of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. Fear of constant military clashes can silence complaints from ordinary citizens and increase heir-apparent Kim Jong-un’s control over the military.

“Artillery firing is one of North Korea’s core tactics against the South,” said professor Kim Yeon-su at the Korea National Defense University. “For Kim Jong-un to gain legitimacy, North Korea thinks it’s important to display its power against the South.”


By Lee Young-jong [[email protected]]

Click to expand...