North Korean Military.

S

Scratch

Captain
siegecrossbow said:
If he chooses to reform it will be a personal tragedy since there is really no way for him to garner public support once the "family halo" of the Kims evaporates once and for all.
Click to expand...

What exactly do you mean by garner public support, within the country / international?
If he manages to outlive the old guard and then find a trustful inner circle and a power base with peopel who think similar, he might have the chance to allow slow reforms. If these go well, why wouldn't local people be happy? It wouldn't be the old NK anymore, and the symbolic Kim halo might indeed fade. But as long as he can keep his apperatus in check and the economy ever so slightly developing.
In essance though, succes for his country would of course mean for Kim to do away with him / his dynastie. I for one wouldn't see the fall of a brutal ruling dynastie as a tragedy, however. He could later potentially be seen as the one who allowed NK to walk into freedom, the question is if he's looking so far ahead.
If he's trying to change NK, wich is the only way to achieve more that just barely survive, there's of course always the likely chance of NK dissolving.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Scratch said:
What exactly do you mean by garner public support, within the country / international?
If he manages to outlive the old guard and then find a trustful inner circle and a power base with peopel who think similar, he might have the chance to allow slow reforms. If these go well, why wouldn't local people be happy? It wouldn't be the old NK anymore, and the symbolic Kim halo might indeed fade. But as long as he can keep his apperatus in check and the economy ever so slightly developing.
In essance though, succes for his country would of course mean for Kim to do away with him / his dynastie. I for one wouldn't see the fall of a brutal ruling dynastie as a tragedy, however. He could later potentially be seen as the one who allowed NK to walk into freedom, the question is if he's looking so far ahead.
If he's trying to change NK, wich is the only way to achieve more that just barely survive, there's of course always the likely chance of NK dissolving.
Click to expand...

By garner public support I mean that the North Koreans may not support him as much as they did his grandfather and father because he has little to show other than the fact that he is a Kim. When Kim Jong Il first became the ruler of NK a lot of people speculated that he might not reign comfortably since the people didn't like him as much as his father. Kim Il Sung was the great war hero who saved the North Koreans from the Americans while Kim Jong Il had accomplished little in comparison. While the North Koreans still worshipped Kim Jong Il fervently (proving the speculators wrong) I don't think the North Koreans loved him as much as Kim Il Sung. Now a teenage brat who Kim Jong Il had kept sheltered for the past two decades of his life is going to take the throne. If you were North Korean wouldn't you, too, be a little skeptical about little Kim's ruling abilities? Like I said the halo of the Kim Dynasty might be the only thing keeping him in power once he does and if he doesn't prove himself quickly (either as extremely harsh or exceedingly "benign") we may see the inner circle turning on him just as fast.
 
S

Scratch

Captain
Ok, I absolutely agree with you there. However, I believe that the top leadership still might need Kim to establish their own legitimacy in some way.
But I guess we shall see in perhaps a few years time, maybe faster.

This economist article has a pic of Hu & Kim shaking hands. (Although Hu is not looking "stern" in that pic)

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China and North Korea
Greetings, comrades
What lies behind the Dear Leader’s latest trip to China?

Sep 2nd 2010 | Beijing

NORTH KOREA’S leader, Kim Jong Il, must have been on an urgent mission when he boarded his bulletproof train and headed to China for the second time in less than four months on August 26th. With America’s former president Jimmy Carter in town, devastating floods in the north and a rare conclave of his ruling party only days away, Mr Kim had much to keep him at home. But buttering up China appears to be a new priority. ...
 
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Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Pretty much all of the accomplishments of the Kim dynasty are lies, so I don't see why they can't just make up a bunch of new lies to give this kid a "history of glorious work for the people and workers of the Democratic Republic of Korea".
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
It seems obvious that something major and urgent is taking place in NK to cause 'dear leader' to return to China so soon after his last visit. Especially if the rumors that he departed China early last time after being snubbed prove to be true.

What his intentions are, we can only guess at, but succession would be the most likely issue to discuss, but there is no real need for Kim to make a personal visit since a phone call would have sufficed to inform of his choice of successor before announcing it. In addition, it would normally be protocol for someone senior from the Chinese government to travel to NK to congratulate the new leader if NK was to make an announcement.

Maybe this is what the trip is about, Kim wants to get top Chinese leaders, probably Hu himself to attend his chosen successor's inauguration to show other's in NK that he has the full backing of China to dissuade possible power plays from other contenders.

If you want to push that deeper, there could be a chance that the chosen successor might be with Kim in China, with Kim trying to foster a good relationship between his son and China's current and future leaders so that Nk would continue to enjoy China's support after he is gone.
 
N

noname

Banned Idiot
This Is Going To Hurt

This Is Going To Hurt
by James Dunnigan
September 2, 2010
The South Korean government revealed how concerned it is with the imminent collapse of North Korea, by proposing a special tax to pay for reunifying the north and south. The government has long had a plan for this, and every year or so it becomes a news item. But now the government wants to start putting aside cash for the reunification. It has long been believed that this would cost between one and two trillion dollars (it cost two trillion to rebuild East Germany, after the Germanys were reunited in 1990). But updated estimates put the cost of fixing North Korea (which is in much worse shape than East Germany ever was) at $5 trillion. That, plus the fact that Germany has a GDP four times that of South Korea, means that the average South Korean will have to pay ten times what the average West German paid to rebuild their lesser half. This could cost South Koreans up to ten percent of their GDP for a decade or more. Many South Koreans fear that rebuilding the north could wreck the South Korean economy. No one knows, and everyone is scared. But someone will have to pay, and the most likely candidate is the South Korean taxpayer.

For a long time, it was popular to believe that reunification with the north could be done gradually, by making peace with the communist dictatorship up there, and gradually merging the two economies. But the northern communists have proved unreliable, incompetent and seemingly out-of-touch with reality. So now, South Korea believes that unification will come in the wake of economic and political collapse in the north. In other words, the worst case. Many South Korean continue to believe that either outcome is possible, if only because the cost of cleaning up after a collapse would be huge
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Spartan95

Spartan95

Junior Member
Looks like the DPRK's military just got a few new 4-star generals:

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North Korean leader names youngest son as general
Posted: 28 September 2010 0229 hrs

SEOUL: North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il has appointed his youngest son as a four-star general, the communist state's official media said on Tuesday in its first mention of the man widely seen as heir apparent.

The announcement comes hours before the scheduled opening of the biggest ruling party meeting for 30 years.

The conference is expected to anoint the son Kim Jong-Un as eventual successor to the ailing 68-year-old leader.

The North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), in a Korean-language report, also said the leader's sister Kim Kyong-Hui was appointed a four-star general along with Choe Ryong-Hae, a long-time aide to the Kim dynasty.

Kim, 68, suffered a stroke two years ago and since then has apparently speeded up plans to put his Swiss-educated third son - believed aged about 27 - in place as eventual ruler of the nuclear-armed nation.

His name has never previously been carried by official media in the North, which has been ruled by the Kim dynasty since its founding in 1948. No photo of Jong-Un as an adult has been seen outside the secretive country.

At the last major Workers' Party meeting in 1980, Kim himself was confirmed as eventual successor to his father Kim Il-Sung, who died in 1994.

"North Korea has now made it official," South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted Yang Moo-Jin, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, as saying.

"It is certain that Kim Jong-Un will be named to a high-level Workers' Party post in the upcoming convention."

The United States said it was watching developments "carefully" but that it was too early to gauge the meaning of the promotion of Kim Jong-Il's son.

The leader's sister Kim Kyong-Hui, 64, is married to Jang Song-Thaek, who is first deputy chairman of the top governing body the National Defence Commission and is widely seen as the nation's second most powerful man.

The sister, who oversees light industries, and her husband are thought likely to act as caretakers for the young and inexperienced son if the leader dies or is forced to step down due to ill health.

The 1.2 million-strong military plays a dominant role in the nation under a Songun (army-first) policy.

KCNA said Kim Jong-Il "firmly believes that the commanding members of the People's Army will continue to support the leadership of the party and complete the revolutionary exploit that was first begun in Mount Paekdu."

The mountain on the China border is officially listed as Kim Jong-Il's birthplace.

The party conference was originally scheduled for the first half of September but delayed without explanation.

Delegates arrived on Sunday in the showpiece capital Pyongyang. On Monday, according to KCNA, they visited the country's "most sacred place" - Kim Il-Sung's mausoleum.

South Korea's Chosun Ilbo said on Monday that the military has nominated Kim Jong-Un as one of the delegates to the meeting.

The newspaper, quoting a North Korean source, said the army on August 25 had elected both father and son as delegates.

Only the leader's election has been made public, "but many senior officers are aware of Kim Jong-Un's election as well," it quoted the source as saying.

State media has made no overt announcement to the outside world of any succession moves. But KCNA said last week the conference to elect the party's "supreme leadership body" will be a "historic" event.

Some analysts believe the son is already actively involved in government.

Cheong Seong-Chang, of South Korea's Sejong Institute think-tank, said that since summer last year official reports had been forwarded to Kim Jong-Il via Kim Jong-Un.

"As a result, as of the summer of 2010, Kim Jong-Un peddles influence, excluding in foreign affairs matters, on state affairs on a level similar to that of Kim Jong-Il," Cheong wrote in a recent article.

The conference will take place amid high regional tensions sparked by the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in March, and a deadlock in six-nation nuclear disarmament talks.

The South, the United States and other nations say a North Korean torpedo was to blame for the warship sinking.

- AFP/de
Click to expand...

I suppose dynastic succession is the only way for a 27-year old to become a 4-star general.
 
bd popeye

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
We all know that Kim Jong-Il days must be numbered. He appears to be in poor health. It's so obvious he's setting up his son for a take over.
 
Finn McCool

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
I found it very interesting that, given the historically male-dominated nature of North Korean leadership, Kim's daughter was given the position of general as well. She's much older than Kim Jong Un, and apparently has been an influential insider for sometime. Given these facts, along with the fact that this other guy was promoted at the same time and apparently he's been a totally loyal Kim-family toadie for decades, I would say that Kim Jong Il wants to set up his daughter and right-hand man to act as regents for his son, while the boy learns the ropes. He wants this done by people he perceives as totally loyal, probably because if he left it to generals and bureaucrats he thinks they would sideline Kim Jong Un, or maybe even try to influence him to rubber-stamp some reforms.
 
S

Scratch

Captain
What I got from some reports is that Kim has apparently reinstalled some insitutions in the apperatus that he had eliminated earlier in a move to consolidate his own power.
These institutions can now be headed by more experianced members of the Kim clan to allow for more stability in young Kim's rise to power and to shield him from rivaling factions in the apperatus. Later when he's older and is in controll, young Kim can again dissolve these institutions to centrelize power in his hands and avoid rivallaries from that direction.
Kim Jong Il indeed had some 20yrs to rise to prominance and power, with him being really ill now, Kim Yong Un has less time, and it seems the family patriarch actually is in a little unexspected hurry to rush the succession issue.
And with the importance of symbols in NK, a demonstration of military might of some kind might be in the works to further legitimate Jong Un as a new leader.
It seems that three NK military members associated with the Cheonan sinking have been elevated to important state defense related positions, I wonder if that is seperate, or if these persons might be Kim loyals that have been chosen to flank young Kim's rise from top military positions.
 
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