News on China's scientific and technological development.

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
This report seemed funky from the get-go, but this (page 17) takes it from questionable to downright fallacious:


Maybe if the author paid attention in math class, he wouldn't make such a ridiculous mistake. He should master basic logic before he tries to "measure innovation" or whatever the hell this farce is.
Even if the share of the Chinese workforce employed in research is one quarter of US levels, the Chinese workforce is more than four times larger than America's, which means China will still have more researchers than America. But of course, the explanation for this "discrepancy" is the following slander:


No, it's not those "shifty, lying Orientals"; it's that he can't do math.

On page 17 of the linked report (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
), you can clearly see from the graph that the statistic being discussed is the share of researchers relative to the US, not the absolute number. It should also be clear from the context.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
On page 17 of the linked report (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
), you can clearly see from the graph that the statistic being discussed is the share of researchers relative to the US, not the absolute number. It should also be clear from the context.
Your point being? He wrongly claims that the number of researchers in China is 75% less than the number of researchers in America.

This suggests Chinese government figures for R&D investment may be significantly overstated, as they show Chinese R&D as only 24 percent less than that of the United States, whereas the number of researchers is 75 percent less.
Number of researchers = size of workforce * percentage of workforce employed in research.
The former factor is more than 4 times America's, the latter factor is 1/4 America's, so the number of researchers in each country is roughly equal, not China having 75% fewer researchers than America.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Your point being? He wrongly claims that the number of researchers in China is 75% less than the number of researchers in America.


Number of researchers = size of workforce * percentage of workforce employed in research.
The former factor is more than 4 times America's, the latter factor is 1/4 America's, so the number of researchers in each country is roughly equal, not China having 75% fewer researchers than America.

The immediately preceding sentence:

Moreover, China lags far behind the United States in the number of researchers as a share of total workers, at just one-quarter of the U.S. level, up 3 percentage points from 2006.

In academic writing, it is acceptable to condense "number of researchers as a share of total workers" to just "number of researchers" when the full meaning is understandable from context. Figure 6 ("Chinese Researchers as a Share of Total Workforce, Relative to the United States") clearly shows the Chinese proportion as 25% that of the US. This is obviously what "75% fewer" describes.

So it's just your tunnel vision and over-eagerness to cherry-pick an avenue of attack. Seriously, it's quoted verbatim in the article as well, with all the necessary context.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The immediately preceding sentence:



In academic writing, it is acceptable to condense "number of researchers as a share of total workers" to just "number of researchers" when the full meaning is understandable from context. Figure 6 ("Chinese Researchers as a Share of Total Workforce, Relative to the United States") clearly shows the Chinese proportion as 25% that of the US. This is obviously what "75% fewer" describes.

In academic writing if one only wanted to talk about the number of researchers in each respective country then condensing it down from "number of researchers as a share of total workers" to "number of researchers" might be reasonable.

However the original study was also trying to make it sound like the absolute amount of Chinese R&D expenditure is somehow inconsistent with the "researchers as a share of total workers" comparison between China and the US.

That is obviously a flawed insinuation, because the absolute amount of R&D expenditure should be more correlated with the absolute number researchers of a nation as well as the quality of R&D that they are doing.


So zek is right in saying that the "number of researchers as a share of total workers relative to the US" is not a particularly useful metric for trying to make sense of a nation's overall R&D budget.


From an outside reader's perspective, looking at the way that particular conclusion is drawn, it almost seems like they're trying to take a particular statistic without context or common sense and use it to try and make it seem like Chinese R&D expenditure is somehow less efficient or less well allocated or less effective or even outright falsely calculated for political reasons.

Of course, the net effect of such a narrative is trying to suggest that the increase in Chinese R&D budget is actually an illusion and not necessarily reflective of any real ability to advance in R&D.

It's a rather par for the course tactic, really.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
In academic writing if one only wanted to talk about the number of researchers in each respective country then condensing it down from "number of researchers as a share of total workers" to "number of researchers" might be reasonable.

However the original study was also trying to make it sound like the absolute amount of Chinese R&D expenditure is somehow inconsistent with the "researchers as a share of total workers" comparison between China and the US.

That is obviously a flawed insinuation, because the absolute amount of R&D expenditure should be more correlated with the absolute number researchers of a nation as well as the quality of R&D that they are doing.


So zek is right in saying that the "number of researchers as a share of total workers relative to the US" is not a particularly useful metric for trying to make sense of a nation's overall R&D budget.


From an outside reader's perspective, looking at the way that particular conclusion is drawn, it almost seems like they're trying to take a particular statistic without context or common sense and use it to try and make it seem like Chinese R&D expenditure is somehow less efficient or less well allocated or less effective or even outright falsely calculated for political reasons.

Of course, the net effect of such a narrative is trying to suggest that the increase in Chinese R&D budget is actually an illusion and not necessarily reflective of any real ability to advance in R&D.

It's a rather par for the course tactic, really.

The statistic referred to by "24% less R&D investment" is actually what is represented in Figure 1: "Chinese Expenditures on R&D as a Share of GDP, Relative to the United States".

Comparing "R&D investment as a share of total GDP" to "researchers as a share of total workers" is reasonable.

Perhaps a reference to the appropriate figure was warranted here.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The statistic referred to by "24% less R&D investment" is actually what is represented in Figure 1 ("Chinese Expenditures on R&D as a Share of GDP, Relative to the United States").

Comparing "R&D investment as a share of GDP" to "researchers as a share of total workers" is a reasonable comparison.

Perhaps a reference to the appropriate figure was warranted here.

No, a more appropriate comparison would be comparing R&D investment amount (absolute) vs no. of researchers (absolute).

R&D investment as a share of GDP is an interesting figure, but trying to make sense of it by "researchers as a share of total workers" is not logical, especially if one is trying to make an argument about trying to explain Chinese R&D budget figures.



If anything, the fact that its "R&D investment" variable was calculated as "share of GDP relative to US" makes their entire comparison even more stupid.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
No, a more appropriate comparison would be comparing R&D investment amount (absolute) vs no. of researchers (absolute).

R&D investment as a share of GDP is an interesting figure, but trying to make sense of it by "researchers as a share of total workers" is not logical, especially if one is trying to make an argument about trying to explain Chinese R&D budget figures.

Directly comparing an absolute $ figure with absolute headcount makes even less sense when attempting to show a difference in efficiency/allocation of resources.

If anything, the fact that its "R&D investment" variable was calculated as "share of GDP relative to US" makes their entire comparison even more stupid.

The entire premise of the article is that Chinese research may be catching up to that of the US. "Share of GDP relative to the US" is an appropriate metric given that the comparison is over a time period (2007-2017).
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Comparing an absolute $ figure with absolute capita makes even less sense when attempting to analyze efficiency/allocation of resources.

It makes the most sense out of all of the numbers available, because using anything other than absolute figures means your "share of XYZ relative to US" becomes dependent on the absolute size of your own XYZ (whether it is work force or GDP).


The entire premise of the article is that Chinese research may be catching up to that of the US. "Share of GDP relative to the US" is an appropriate metric given that the comparison is over a time period (2007-2017).

If the premise of the article is trying to judge where Chinese research is relative to the US, clearly absolute budget and absolute number of researchers makes the most sense.

"Share of GDP relative to US" and "Share of researchers in work force relative to US" are completely idiotic, because what if the absolute size of China's GDP was 1/100th the size of the US? What if China's absolute overall workforce was 1/100th of the US?
Or we can look at it the other way, what if China's GDP was 1000 times the size of the US? What if China's overall workforce was 1000 the times of the US?

In both situations, if we applied the same "share of GDP relative to US" number and "share of researchers in work force relative to US" number we would have massively differing consequences in terms of just how much output China's R&D can actually be, depending on how big China's workforce, and how big China's overall GDP are, respectively.


In other words, their "share of GDP relative to US" and "share of researchers in work force relative to US" are useless numbers because they don't tell us just how large the absolute R&D expenditure is and how large the absolute number of researchers are.
 

Icmer

Junior Member
Registered Member
It makes the most sense out of all of the numbers available, because using anything other than absolute figures means your "share of XYZ relative to US" becomes dependent on the absolute size of your own XYZ (whether it is work force or GDP).




If the premise of the article is trying to judge where Chinese research is relative to the US, clearly absolute budget and absolute number of researchers makes the most sense.

"Share of GDP relative to US" and "Share of researchers in work force relative to US" are completely idiotic, because what if the absolute size of China's GDP was 1/100th the size of the US? What if China's absolute overall workforce was 1/100th of the US?
Or we can look at it the other way, what if China's GDP was 1000 times the size of the US? What if China's overall workforce was 1000 the times of the US?

In both situations, if we applied the same "share of GDP relative to US" number and "share of researchers in work force relative to US" number yet have massively differing consequences in terms of just how much output China's R&D can actually be, depending on how big China's workforce, and how big China's overall GDP are, respectively.

Okay, here is the comparison that you claim, it seems, to be solely necessary.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Investment in R&D is highly influenced by a country's economic power, as well as the importance that the nation places on research. The
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
still leads the global ranking in R&D spending, with an amount equivalent to 2.84 percent of its gross domestic product forecast to go into this sector this year, according to the forecast. The U.S. will increase its spending in R&D from 538 billion in 2017 to $553 billion this year, an increase of nearly 3 percent.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
follows closely on the list for overall spending in R&D, with a projected investment of $475 billion this year, up from $445 billion in 2017, according to the forecast. However, the country invests the smallest equivalent percentage of its GDP in R&D of the five countries that spend the most. R&D spending in China this year is expected to represent 1.97 percent of its GDP, up from 1.96 percent in 2017.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
spends more on R&D as a share of its GDP than the U.S. and China, and will rank No. 3 in total R&D spending in 2018, according to the forecast. The East Asian country's estimated R&D expenditures in 2017 represented 3.5 percent of its GDP, and that share is expected to be unchanged this year. Japan spent an estimated $185.5 billion last year and is expected to increase its R&D budget by about $1 billion this year.

The only European country in the top five spenders on R&D,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, is expected to increase its funding this year by $2 billion from 2017, to a projected figure of more than $116 billion, according to the forecast. The country's spending on R&D is expected to represent 2.84 percent of its GDP, a share that will be unchanged from 2017.

Coming in at No. 5 is South Korea, projected to spend $88.2 billion this year on R&D, according to the forecast. Its spending in the sector this year will represent about 4.3 percent of its GDP, a figure that is relatively unchanged from 2017.

The top 10 spenders in research and development also include
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with $83 billion forecast to be spent in 2018;
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, with $63 billion in projected spending;
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
at $59 billion; the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with about $50 billion; and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
with approximately $37 billion expected to be spent this year on R&D.

Finishing last among the 40 countries ranked on the forecast is Bangladesh, which is expected to spend about $5 billion this year on research and development. That spending level would represent 0.55 percent of its GDP. The spending on R&D in the top 40 countries totals $2.11 trillion of the about $2.19 trillion worldwide that goes into technological development and innovation.

Does this tell you anything about efficiency of resources allocated? Not at all.

Let's look at share of researchers again.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Compared to China, South Korea has a much higher proportion of researchers in the workforce (14.43 per 1,000 people) than China (2.242) despite South Korea's R&D spending being 4.3% of GDP compared to China's at 1.97%. Similarly, the most recent figure for the US is 8.928, while US R&D as share of GDP is 2.84%.

Do you deny that this discrepancy is at all notable? This is exactly the same as what the original article discusses, except in a more distributed form.
 
Last edited:
Top