News on China's scientific and technological development.

Michaelsinodef · Mar 30, 2023

CMP said:
Rather than saying they are in different development stages, I think it's possible they're diverging completely in development paths. U.S. chose deindustrialization and financialization to become a service-driven economy. I think (and hope) China has ruled out that path.

China has quite clearly ruled out that path (going nearly full on service and rent).

But services will also be developed alongside improvements to manufacturing and farming, basically:

tacoburger · Mar 30, 2023

CMP said:
Rather than saying they are in different development stages, I think it's possible they're diverging completely in development paths. U.S. chose deindustrialization and financialization to become a service-driven economy. I think (and hope) China has ruled out that path.

There's no reason why both can't be developed at the same time.

manqiangrexue · Mar 30, 2023

tacoburger said:
This is new industrial revoulation, space race and nuclear arms race all rolled up into one. If there's any fields that China doesn't want to fall behind in, it's this one.

Oh don't worry, you can tailor LLMs to speak however you want, Trump style, and have a text to voice A.I play it back in Trump's voice and have a deepfake A.I generate a ultra realistic model of Trump speaking those words. But this A.I models are totally not a game changer guys. It's no more than fun toys for office work.

Hahaha, I feel like I'm talking to a bunch of boomers talking about how the internet is totally not big deal in the 80s, because it can only mimic human interaction and that talking to people over the phone/radio, sending a message via carrier pigeon or talking in person is always going to be better.

You think Americans are gonna use it against themselves? How about using it in other countries to sway public opinion. I already suspect that a lot of the "CHINA BAD" redditors and youtubers are bots. Nukes may be bad, but it's better that you have them rather than your enemy, or failing that, you both have them rather than your enemy having them while you don't.

Those people who are impressed are basically 100% of china's A.I sector. I feel like there's a new ChatGTP-style LLM going into development every week in China since November. ChatGTP clearly rattled them.

And China is still failing at that. Baidu was one of the few that had a LLM developed since 2019. For whatever reason, they had to wait until mircosoft and OpenA.I teaming up to integrate Bing with GTP-4 and google doing the same, for them to bring out ERNIE and integrate it into their digital ecosystem.

Yeah I call bullshit. A.I was supposed to be one of the few areas that China were neck and neck with America. Me, an average joe was already aware of what a game changer GTP-3 could be, OpenA.I was hyping up GTP-4 for years, dropping hints that they were close to AGI with it, they were bullshitting a lot but there was so much hype behind GTP-4 because of that. LLM were mainstream news even before ChatGTP came out. Remember the google engineer that said that google lamda was sentient and alive and got fired for doing so? That was huge news at the time. Everybody was talking about it.

But actual A.I researchers in China don't listen to the news, let alone keep up with advancements in their field of study I guess. Hell, there was a couple of chinese researchers helping in the actual development of ChatGTP and yet the entire industry only got blindsided after it came out for public use. Talk about embarrassing.

Ok, so to summarize your post, you, a self-professed average Joe, are pretending to know how Chinese elite tech companies felt several years ago and now... about a chat program... which you feel is the end goal of AI since you think it's an atomic bomb exploding, and to that effect, you are now criticizing people who are innovating on a level you cannot even comprehend (but like to to tell yourself that it's because you weren't born with enough money). Correct?

9dashline · Mar 30, 2023

tacoburger said:
This is new industrial revoulation, space race and nuclear arms race all rolled up into one. If there's any fields that China doesn't want to fall behind in, it's this one.

Oh don't worry, you can tailor LLMs to speak however you want, Trump style, and have a text to voice A.I play it back in Trump's voice and have a deepfake A.I generate a ultra realistic model of Trump speaking those words. But this A.I models are totally not a game changer guys. It's no more than fun toys for office work.

Hahaha, I feel like I'm talking to a bunch of boomers talking about how the internet is totally not big deal in the 80s, because it can only mimic human interaction and that talking to people over the phone/radio, sending a message via carrier pigeon or talking in person is always going to be better.

You think Americans are gonna use it against themselves? How about using it in other countries to sway public opinion. I already suspect that a lot of the "CHINA BAD" redditors and youtubers are bots. Nukes may be bad, but it's better that you have them rather than your enemy, or failing that, you both have them rather than your enemy having them while you don't.

Those people who are impressed are basically 100% of china's A.I sector. I feel like there's a new ChatGTP-style LLM going into development every week in China since November. ChatGTP clearly rattled them.

And China is still failing at that. Baidu was one of the few that had a LLM developed since 2019. For whatever reason, they had to wait until mircosoft and OpenA.I teaming up to integrate Bing with GTP-4 and google doing the same, for them to bring out ERNIE and integrate it into their digital ecosystem.

Yeah I call bullshit. A.I was supposed to be one of the few areas that China were neck and neck with America. Me, an average joe was already aware of what a game changer GTP-3 could be, OpenA.I was hyping up GTP-4 for years, dropping hints that they were close to AGI with it, they were bullshitting a lot but there was so much hype behind GTP-4 because of that. LLM were mainstream news even before ChatGTP came out. Remember the google engineer that said that google lamda was sentient and alive and got fired for doing so? That was huge news at the time. Everybody was talking about it.

But actual A.I researchers in China don't listen to the news, let alone keep up with advancements in their field of study I guess. Hell, there was a couple of chinese researchers helping in the actual development of ChatGTP and yet the entire industry only got blindsided after it came out for public use. Talk about embarrassing.

Dont take everything the West says at face value... otherwise if they are to be believed, they are already bowing out of the AI race and collectively vowed to take a six month pause to give China a chance to catch up

If you ask me, they already ran into a plateau and realized they overhyped all this and its one huge tacoburger

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tacoburger · Mar 30, 2023

manqiangrexue said:
Ok, so to summarize your post, you, an average Joe, are pretending to know how Chinese companies felt several years ago and now... about a chat program... which you feel is the end goal of AI since you think it's an atomic bomb exploding, and to that effect, you are now criticizing people who are innovating on a level you cannot even comprehend (but like to to tell yourself that it's because you weren't born with enough money). Correct?

I'm going via the direct quotes of several A.I leaders and players in the chinese A.I industry. Baidu was one the few that developed ERNIE in respone to GTP-2. They still got blindsided by ChatGTP. This is when OpenA.I has been screaming that GTP-4 was so good it's "proto-AGI" since 2021. When your competitors are claiming that they developed AGI, you shut up and listen, even if you think that they're bullshitting.

manqiangrexue said:
since you think it's an atomic bomb exploding,

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The rule that most people aware of these issues would have endorsed 50 years earlier, was that if an AI system can speak fluently and says it’s self-aware and demands human rights, that ought to be a hard stop on people just casually owning that AI and using it past that point. We already blew past that old line in the sand. And that was probably correct; I agree that current AIs are probably just imitating talk of self-awareness from their training data. But I mark that, with how little insight we have into these systems’ internals, we do not actually know.

If that’s our state of ignorance for GPT-4, and GPT-5 is the same size of giant capability step as from GPT-3 to GPT-4, I think we’ll no longer be able to justifiably say “probably not self-aware” if we let people make GPT-5s. It’ll just be “I don’t know; nobody knows.” If you can’t be sure whether you’re creating a self-aware AI, this is alarming not just because of the moral implications of the “self-aware” part, but because being unsure means you have no idea what you are doing and that is dangerous and you should stop.

This LLM are opaque as human brains. We don't really understand how they work, only that they do. It's clear that scaling laws do provide some level of understanding to an A.I system, they spontaneously gain new abilities as their parameter count increases. If could well be that they have some level of basic reasoning and understanding in the model, that will increase as the parameter count goes up. Even if it's a 0.1% of this chance of this kinds of LLM developing some sort of AGI, it should be treated like a top level national security threat.

manqiangrexue said:
people who are innovating on a level you cannot even comprehend (but like to to tell yourself that it's because you weren't born with enough money). Correct?

I don't need to know rocket science to know that reusable rockets are better than expandable rockets and that everyone not developing one is a fool. Can't I criticize the SLS, Ariane 6 and Vuclan for being useless wastes of money using basic common sense, or do I need a PHD in rocket science? I guess I need a PHD in mechanical engineering to know that a J-20 a better aircraft than a biplane.

tacoburger · Mar 30, 2023

9dashline said:
Dont take everything the West says at face value... otherwise if they are to be believed, they are already bowing out of the AI race and collectively vowed to take a six month pause to give China a chance to catch up

If you ask me, they already ran into a plateau and realized they overhyped all this and its one huge tacoburger

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Shows you the differnce in progress. Chinese A.I sector are trying to catch up to ChatGTP. America's A.I sector is so advanced that there's a number of experts that are legitimately afraid that their next gen trillion+ parameter LLMs like GTP-5 are going to be some kind of proto-AGI that they can lose control of.

manqiangrexue · Mar 30, 2023

tacoburger said:
I'm going via the direct quotes of several A.I leaders and players in the chinese A.I industry. Baidu was one the few that developed ERNIE in respone to GTP-2. They still got blindsided by ChatGTP. This is when OpenA.I has been screaming that GTP-4 was so good it's "proto-AGI" since 2021.

Go ahead and put those quotes here then. Following close with your version is not the same thing as getting blindsided. If my neighbor tapes a flashlight to a hat when he goes out at night so I decide to do it too, it doesn't mean anything other than that I think it's cool enough to try. I'm certainly not freaking out about it like you.

tacoburger said:
When your competitors are claiming that they developed AGI, you shut up and listen, even if you think that they're bullshitting.

You should shut up and listen then; instead you're the one bullshitting.

tacoburger said:
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How is this in any way a response to whether a chat program represents an atomic bomb? The bomb ended WWII; after it was dropped, the competition was over. Are you claiming that the China vs US tech war or AI competition is over?

tacoburger said:
This LLM are opaque as human brains. We don't really understand how they work, only that they do. It's clear that scaling laws do provide some level of understanding to an A.I system, they spontaneously gain new abilities as their parameter count increases. If could well be that they have some level of basic reasoning and understanding in the model, that will increase as the parameter count goes up. Even if it's a 0.1% of this chance of this kinds of LLM developing some sort of AGI, it should be treated like a top level national security threat.

Don't care; this is not even a response to anything I said.

tacoburger said:
I don't need to know rocket science to know that reusable rockets are better than expandable rockets and that everyone not developing one is a fool. Can't I criticize the SLS, Ariane 6 and Vuclan for being useless wastes of money using basic common sense, or do I need a PHD in rocket science? I guess I need a PHD in mechanical engineering to know that a J-20 a better aircraft than a biplane.

False comparison; nobody's asking you if A is better than B when the answer is obvious. You're here complaining that industry experts aren't doing well enough when you have no idea how to get into their ballpark. So this is not you saying that J-20 is better than a bi-plane; this is you criticizing the J-20 development team for not making it operational before the F-35 when you don't even know the technical needs of a single rivot in the design.

BlackWindMnt · Mar 30, 2023

tacoburger said:
Shows you the differnce in progress. Chinese A.I sector are trying to catch up to ChatGTP. America's A.I sector is so advanced that there's a number of experts that are legitimately afraid that their next gen trillion+ parameter LLMs like GTP-5 are going to be some kind of proto-AGI that they can lose control of.

What does losing control of proto-AGI even mean, does it mean the retarded idea from Hollywood like skynet escaping lab and take over?

9dashline · Mar 30, 2023

BlackWindMnt said:
What does losing control of proto-AGI even mean, does it mean the retarded idea from Hollywood like skynet escaping lab and take over?

This dude is just trolling at this point...

Wake me up when IBM finishes their BlueBrain project on mapping the human connectome on the cellular level...

Until then CrapGPT is just a fancy version of AskJeeves, its just "next-word prediction", nothing more... and adding more parameters already doesnt scale, unless you think you know more than OpenAI CEO

vincent · Mar 30, 2023

9dashline said:
This dude is just trolling at this point...

Wake me up when IBM finishes their BlueBrain project on mapping the human connectome on the cellular level...

Until then CrapGPT is just a fancy version of AskJeeves, its just "next-word prediction", nothing more... and adding more parameters already doesnt scale, unless you think you know more than OpenAI CEO

News on China's scientific and technological development.

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member

tacoburger

Junior Member

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

9dashline

Senior Member

tacoburger

Junior Member

tacoburger

Junior Member

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

BlackWindMnt

Captain

9dashline

Senior Member

vincent

Grumpy Old Man