News on China's scientific and technological development.

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
Scientific instruments are no joke. They are state of the art machines which require huge R&D resources and extremely talented people to create.

It isn't strange that China, which is a new great power, cannot manufacture such instruments yet. It will happen eventually but it will take a long time
It's not because China doesn't have the capability to manufacture such scientific instruments. It's because a small clique of established industrial countries who attained scientific technological leadership many decades ago, dominated this industry early on and have mostly continued to dominate it. That's why scientific instrumentation is concentrated in a select handful of countries. Namely, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands. Absent their presence, other advanced countries could and would quickly reproduce most such instruments within a few months and only take years for a small fraction of the most advanced instruments, like cesium atomic clocks. I stress "advanced" countries, like China, South Korea, Italy, Russia, etc. who have the potential to recreate such an industry.

Yet another dumb trade policy that will harm the US more than it harms China. This will indirectly subsidize the rise of China's scientific instruments industry, whose market it will lose and who will become a peer competitor in this industry. I keep saying it, Who are these geniuses?
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's not because China doesn't have the capability to manufacture such scientific instruments. It's because a small clique of established industrial countries who attained scientific technological leadership many decades ago, dominated this industry early on and have mostly continued to dominate it. That's why scientific instrumentation is concentrated in a select handful of countries. Namely, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, France, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands.

I'm surprised Russia isn't on that list. Where did the Soviet Union get their instruments from? Sweden and Switzerland? Or the West?
 

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm surprised Russia isn't on that list. Where did the Soviet Union get their instruments from? Sweden and Switzerland? Or the West?
Russia's scientific instrumentation is not leading edge and it imports most of what it needs like China. During Soviet times, by various estimates, it was behind technologically by at least 2 decades overall. Despite this, they were way more self sufficient than today. After the Soviet dissolution, their entire scientific technological establishment was totally gutted throughout the 1990s. At that time, hundreds of thousands of the post Soviet scientific establishment emigrated overseas either permanently or on long-term contracts. If it wasn't for Vladimir Putin, Russia would have probably devolved into a 3rd world country sometime during the 2000s, similar to what happened to Ukraine.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member

Scientists in China ‘struggle to get instruments because of US export controls'​

An AI system was trained on a database of detailed information about most hardware used in laboratories across China and found that nearly 1,900 items (42 per cent) on the US [export ban] list were scientific instruments.

Scientific instruments are one of the few commercial products not usually made in China. None of the world’s top 20 scientific instrument suppliers are Chinese.

According to Wang’s study, the instruments on the US export control list were not isolated, but often linked to others because of shared technologies or fields of application. An X-ray machine, for instance, was banned together with an instrument to measure vaults that could be used in a chemical plant.

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Very nice.

Nothing is as hard as Lithography machines. This ban will help give rise to Chinese scientific instrument industry.

Gotta hand it to US for this good support.
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
Very nice.

Nothing is as hard as Lithography machines. This ban will help give rise to Chinese scientific instrument industry.

Gotta hand it to US for this good support.

The US is partially disassociating the Western-controlled scientific-industrial complex from China, resulting in two separate systems, a Western one and a Chinese one. Whichever system produces better results in the long run will prevail. A tech blockade is not doomed to fail, the US tech blockade against the Soviet Union was quite effective. If the West pulls further and further ahead of China in the coming decades, then eventually China's ability to resist will be undermined, just as the Soviet Union's was. China can only defend itself successfully if its scientific-industrial complex produces better results in the long run than the Western one.

In order for that to happen there are two ingredients: scale and institutions. Scale is why a small country like Singapore cannot go up against the US alone, despite having great institutions. You need a massive talent pool, labor force, and tax/consumer base to support such a structure. This is part of why China must keep its birth rate high. But that is not sufficient by itself, the second is institutions. Institutions are the rules/laws and culture that allow scientific innovation to succeed and scientists to thrive, and the right collaborations between universities, labs, government, and private companies. Otherwise scale will go to waste. That is what happened in Mao's China or during the Permit Raj.

Even if China's scale and institutions matches the West, it will only improve at the same rate as the West. In that case, the West's massive trove of legacy knowledge capital from decades of tinkering and know-how will keep it perpetually ahead. China must actually have better scale and institutions than the West to win this fight.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
How many times did the Western media say COVID-19 was going spread across China and bring down the economy? How many times did the Western media say Trump's trade war on China was going to crash China's economy. And where did they get their information? From what other people wrote who got their information from wishful thinking pundits.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
The US is partially disassociating the Western-controlled scientific-industrial complex from China, resulting in two separate systems, a Western one and a Chinese one. Whichever system produces better results in the long run will prevail. A tech blockade is not doomed to fail, the US tech blockade against the Soviet Union was quite effective. If the West pulls further and further ahead of China in the coming decades, then eventually China's ability to resist will be undermined, just as the Soviet Union's was. China can only defend itself successfully if its scientific-industrial complex produces better results in the long run than the Western one.

In order for that to happen there are two ingredients: scale and institutions. Scale is why a small country like Singapore cannot go up against the US alone, despite having great institutions. You need a massive talent pool, labor force, and tax/consumer base to support such a structure. This is part of why China must keep its birth rate high. But that is not sufficient by itself, the second is institutions. Institutions are the rules/laws and culture that allow scientific innovation to succeed and scientists to thrive, and the right collaborations between universities, labs, government, and private companies. Otherwise scale will go to waste. That is what happened in Mao's China or during the Permit Raj.

Even if China's scale and institutions matches the West, it will only improve at the same rate as the West. In that case, the West's massive trove of legacy knowledge capital from decades of tinkering and know-how will keep it perpetually ahead. China must actually have better scale and institutions than the West to win this fight.
The problem is that unlike the Soviet Union, China is well connected to Europe, East Asia and the rest of the world.

China's economy isn't struggling and it's finances aren't shabby. Chinese institutions are strong too. The arguments for weak institutions may be offered to countries like India or Vietnam but not China.

The US birth rate isn't astronomically high ( its just minutely higher) and that birth rate is propped up by not high income highly educated population but those on the lower rung. The only way US can innovate is by allowing in immigrants from the third world ( which China can do too but is more concerned about stability). China has large enough population that is more than enough to support the industry you are talking about - Scientific instruments.

Most scientific instruments companies have core workforces of maybe a few hundreds or a thousand researches and engineers. China can give rise to hundreds of Scientific Instrument companies without breaking a sweat ( within a decade). Experience is the only issue I see here but talent trumps experience. New paths can be cleared by fresh talent which applies new technologies and methods on scientific instrument research.


The west isn't pulling further and further ahead. The gap is only narrowing. Only in right leaning, pro west echo Chambers will you hear nonsense like these. China will do fine. Actually, China will outdo.
 

OppositeDay

Senior Member
Registered Member
The problem is that unlike the Soviet Union, China is well connected to Europe, East Asia and the rest of the world.

China's economy isn't struggling and it's finances aren't shabby. Chinese institutions are strong too. The arguments for weak institutions may be offered to countries like India or Vietnam but not China.

The US birth rate isn't astronomically high ( its just minutely higher) and that birth rate is propped up by not high income highly educated population but those on the lower rung. The only way US can innovate is by allowing in immigrants from the third world ( which China can do too but is more concerned about stability). China has large enough population that is more than enough to support the industry you are talking about - Scientific instruments.

Most scientific instruments companies have core workforces of maybe a few hundreds or a thousand researches and engineers. China can give rise to hundreds of Scientific Instrument companies without breaking a sweat ( within a decade). Experience is the only issue I see here but talent trumps experience. New paths can be cleared by fresh talent which applies new technologies and methods on scientific instrument research.


The west isn't pulling further and further ahead. The gap is only narrowing. Only in right leaning, pro west echo Chambers will you hear nonsense like these. China will do fine. Actually, China will outdo.

China has enough talents. A lot of Chinese STEM students end up working in the US because there is no use for their talents back home because there's no industry. Once China begins to develop an industry people will return. Look at EDA for example. Monopolized by the US but after American export control a lot of Chinese employees of the big three EDA companies are coming home to start or join EDA startups.
 

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
The US is partially disassociating the Western-controlled scientific-industrial complex from China, resulting in two separate systems, a Western one and a Chinese one. Whichever system produces better results in the long run will prevail. A tech blockade is not doomed to fail, the US tech blockade against the Soviet Union was quite effective. If the West pulls further and further ahead of China in the coming decades, then eventually China's ability to resist will be undermined, just as the Soviet Union's was. China can only defend itself successfully if its scientific-industrial complex produces better results in the long run than the Western one.

In order for that to happen there are two ingredients: scale and institutions. Scale is why a small country like Singapore cannot go up against the US alone, despite having great institutions. You need a massive talent pool, labor force, and tax/consumer base to support such a structure. This is part of why China must keep its birth rate high. But that is not sufficient by itself, the second is institutions. Institutions are the rules/laws and culture that allow scientific innovation to succeed and scientists to thrive, and the right collaborations between universities, labs, government, and private companies. Otherwise scale will go to waste. That is what happened in Mao's China or during the Permit Raj.

Even if China's scale and institutions matches the West, it will only improve at the same rate as the West. In that case, the West's massive trove of legacy knowledge capital from decades of tinkering and know-how will keep it perpetually ahead. China must actually have better scale and institutions than the West to win this fight.

The soviet union's scientific-industrial complex has not been mentioned as the source of their collapse. While it was behind the west, the drivers of thier collapse were political, overspending on MIC, economic mis-management... besides, china is still in catch-up mode in some industries (not all), so less efforts are required to deliver the same results.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
The soviet union's scientific-industrial complex has not been mentioned as the source of their collapse. While it was behind the west, the drivers of thier collapse were political, overspending on MIC, economic mis-management... besides, china is still in catch-up mode in some industries (not all), so less efforts are required to deliver the same results.
Soviets over performed on innovation relative to their economic capacity. The problem was the economic system, not the innovation system.
 
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