New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

Crang said:

What about Nio?

I could see Geely surviving and emerging as a sleeper hit. It's extremely smart acquisitions of Volvo, Lotus etc has its foundations more solid compared to other EV companies. I'm not sure what is its battery strategy though

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I have a personal bias against Geely because I think their logo is ugly, their new starburst design language is ugly and they keep creating stupid brands out of thin air like Lynk, Geometry, Zeekr and Maple instead of just focusing on making one strong brand

I wish we could see something like a Chery SAIC merger. Retain Chery's engine tech for ICE (and increase overseas sales especially non EV markets) while using SAIC's design team (I think SAIC vehicles look much better). But most importantly merge their logos or something. Chery's name is fine but the CAC logo looks like a toyota knockoff. SAIC's Roewe logo looks fine but the name is just terrible.

tphuang said:

A lot of these guys are in trouble. What BYD has done since early 2021 is changing the entire Chinese auto industry. They are going from 1 series of cars (dynasty) to 4. They are planning to cover the entire spectrum of car types. The genius part of what they did is DM-i/DM-p engines. There is just no way Huawei's drive system could compete with the efficiency of what BYD has created over 15 years. There is a reason that BYD has been success in the past year. All the technology it had been working on for 15 years all basically matured at the same time for mass production. DM-i is effectively replacing the traditional ICE cars for people that don't feel comfortable switching to purely battery yet. That the difference of going alone and persevering over many years vs just getting fed the technology. All these technologies that BYD has developed are probably available for sale to other automakers. Most of the EV startups in China are probably not going to make it. My guess is that Geely probably will be able to make it. They have enough going on. A lot of the old state owned ones will probably get bought out by the surviving ones.

The Chinese market is brutal. A lot of Western ones that had been making a fortune off the Chinese market will now be suffering. VW is the prime example. BYD going for 500k a year to 4 to 5 million a year over the course of 3 or 4 years is going to put a lot of competition on ventilators.



It really does not. It's fortunes have already been crushed by several new entrant into the market in the same class. This space is very low margin and really competitive. You don't want to be stuck there.

Out of the ones we've seen, I could see BYD Dolphin doing really well long term in the international market.

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You'll be surprised at Huawei. I am not an expert but Huawei was nobody in electrical power engineering 15 years ago, yet now they're one of the top producers of solar inverters (DC to AC conversion) overtaking big names like ABB and Siemens.


Their experience in electric power engineering and semiconductor for telecom and solar is likely to be useful for their EV drive project.

CTP (Cell To Pack)/CTC (Cell To Chassis)/Structural battery pack are similar and important technologies.

CATL becomes first EV battery maker to comply with new European regulation​

The certification will be required for all power battery systems exported to ECE member states from September 1, 2023.

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LG Energy Solution's LFP battery plan is pretty underwhelming. First, these batteries probably will not be available for EV use until 2025. Second, "LG Energy Solution is still heavily betting on pouch cells instead of adopting the prismatic format, to allow its battery packs to become module-less." In other words, these batteries probably cannot fully exploit the advantages of the CTP/CTC technologies.

Introduction (advertisement) of BYD Seal.

A few things on this BYD Seal day. BYD exec said that very soon, being #1 in China will no longer be considered an achievement. They want to be the #1 automaker in the world. Watch out VW, GM and Toyota. Very soon, BYD will become the de facto car maker that Chinese buyers will be looking at when they just want to buy a non-foreign car.

This year, they are looking to add 12 new bases for battery production. Considering they started the year with 4, they will have 16 by years end in various stages of construction. Watch out CATL.

Apparently, they will not be selling at DM-i motors. Production level not enough for even BYD vehicles.

I will post more about this tomorrow morning my time once people have more time to go through this news

FairAndUnbiased said:

You'll be surprised at Huawei. I am not an expert but Huawei was nobody in electrical power engineering 15 years ago, yet now they're one of the top producers of solar inverters (DC to AC conversion) overtaking big names like ABB and Siemens.

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Their experience in electric power engineering and semiconductor for telecom and solar is likely to be useful for their EV drive project.

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I must admit that I was wrong originally and assumed it to be dual motor or ICE generator for some reason. Electric motor is a little different. The latest EVs' electric motors are all pretty efficient already. For example, BYD's e3.0 platform has an overall efficiency of over 90% (says 89+% here and I read 91% elsewhere) and comes with a heat pump. Can go 0 to 60 mph in 2.9 s. It's pretty hard to get more efficient when motors are already at this level.

Similarly, if we read Tesla, you get similar #. Tesla told Car and Driver that the motor in the Model S has gone from 80 percent efficient to 90 percent, with peak efficiency at 94 percent during the EPA test cycles. Certain part of the motor like the inverter is 96 to 97% efficient.

If I were to guess, most of the domestic players can achieve something close to this level of efficiency on their electric motors, since their range to battery size ratio is not that different from what BYD cars are showing.

I would give Huawei a pretty good chance of getting close to this level. I think the other thing I forgot to mention is that most likely a tech company will be one of the surviving domestic players. We know that Xiaomi, Didi, Huawei and Baidu are all doing some level of internal development.

BYD seagull spotted

tphuang said:

If I were to guess, most of the domestic players can achieve something close to this level of efficiency on their electric motors, since their range to battery size ratio is not that different from what BYD cars are showing.

I would give Huawei a pretty good chance of getting close to this level. I think the other thing I forgot to mention is that most likely a tech company will be one of the surviving domestic players. We know that Xiaomi, Didi, Huawei and Baidu are all doing some level of internal development.

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If you assume that Huawei will be able to obtain leading-class electric motor efficiency, then every other car manufacturer should be able to do the same.

But it's the performance of the individual components (motors+battery+chassis+electronics+softwre) and their integration which is determines the overall efficiency, range and features in a car. Then they have to scale up.

The companies which excel at this are the ones who will succeed.
I see Xiaomi, Didi, Huawei as lagging behind on this. But as time goes on, electric car components and software will become more commoditised, like smartphones.

sndef888 said:

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BYD seagull spotted

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That's awesome. I also like the new Chery QQ Wujie Pro
Although in China, it will probably get outshone by SeaGull very soon. That's the challenge facing Chery and Geely. It's hard to compete against one with better brand recognition and priced similarly.

BYD Seal is out.
It's hard to compete with BYD's CTB/Blade battery. Just look at these videos where they roll over 50t trucks and then continue to use the battery. If anyone is concerned about safety of BYD cars, they will not be after these videos.
They are interestingly enough comparing themselves to Porsche Taycan. The torsional rigidity of BYD Seal with CTB technology is quite impressive.

ITAC technology allows them to pass moose test at 83.5 km/h

The 4 wheel drive with 650 KM CLTC range has energy consumption rate 12.7 kWh/100 km. It can be recharged at 800V with 300km range in just 15 minutes.

CTB technology
Integrates & chassis plate into one, uses honeycomb-sandwich structu
Increases volumetric utilization by 6
Increases torsional stiffness by 1x

We should be getting news soon on how many orders they got. The online rumor was that they got 50k blind orders before even today's pre-sale.

sndef888 said:

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BYD seagull spotted

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Sounds like a nice EV competitor for VW polo like cars.

tphuang said:

That's awesome. I also like the new Chery QQ Wujie Pro

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Although in China, it will probably get outshone by SeaGull very soon. That's the challenge facing Chery and Geely. It's hard to compete against one with better brand recognition and priced similarly.

BYD Seal is out.

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It's hard to compete with BYD's CTB/Blade battery. Just look at these videos where they roll over 50t trucks and then continue to use the battery. If anyone is concerned about safety of BYD cars, they will not be after these videos.

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They are interestingly enough comparing themselves to Porsche Taycan. The torsional rigidity of BYD Seal with CTB technology is quite impressive.

ITAC technology allows them to pass moose test at 83.5 km/h

The 4 wheel drive with 650 KM CLTC range has energy consumption rate 12.7 kWh/100 km. It can be recharged at 800V with 300km range in just 15 minutes.

CTB technology
Integrates

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& chassis plate into one, uses honeycomb-sandwich structu
Increases volumetric utilization by 6
Increases torsional stiffness by 1x

We should be getting news soon on how many orders they got. The online rumor was that they got 50k blind orders before even today's pre-sale.

Click to expand...

Damn at 212k the seal is quite a bit cheaper than the Han EV with just 60km less range. It's even cheaper than the rumoured 24w. Though I suspect the Changan C385 and Leapmotor C01 will give it a bit of competition as they're quite a bit cheaper still

I get why the chinese market likes 2 door cars like the wuling mini and chery wujie but I'm glad the seagull didn't go that route