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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
China should have already passed that points of tact and being on the defensive.
Why should it have? Is it comprehensively more powerful than the US already? Is it dominantly more powerful? Coming out of defense and acting like you own the world too early vs at the right time (after solidly surpassing the US) is the difference between WWIII with uncertain outcome and a successful transition to a Sino-led world order. Leave a margin of error.
China is a rising superpower, but it will never become a fully risen one, if it doesn't reclaim Taiwan. It is the last step it needs to take to become a real global superpower in the eyes of the entire world.
That is the last step. The step before that is becoming stronger than the US and whatever "allied" forces it can muster up by a margin that makes the US fear war.
China could grow 5% for another 50 years, but the rest of the world won't start treating it as a real, developed super-power unless it takes Taiwan under its control. They would always point their fingers to that.
I don't think so. The Western world is in a panic over China's rising power as it is. Those 2 things are not connected; Taiwan matters to China; it matters to the US because it matters to China. It pretty much doesn't matter to anyone else.
I mean how embarrassing is it to have an US vassal that's blocking your whole entrance to the open sea, which is your territory by the UN, but at which you can't even park your ships or do nothing about while they entertain Lithuanian politicians who treat it as a real country. I mean from Lithuania to America, they treat it as a separate country nowadays de jure.
It's embarrassing but it's going to be much more than embarrassing if China jumps the gun. "I'm embarrassed so I'll go to war now, possibly lose, possibly start WWIII, definitely get things incredibly messy," has no place in strategic planning when staying calm and growing can lead to a clean and decisive victory further down the road. @tamsen_ikard is completely right that China, rising at the speed it is, has every interest in putting this off into the future where the power balance is much more in its favor to the point of total domination. Why do you think the US is trying to embarrass China into acting now?
 
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D

Deleted member 23272

Guest
Well. I am Turkish :D Don't pull my sentences to meanings I never even implied. I didn't say soft power is everything. I said it is important and lacking it has real consequences.
Ah, okay that explains some things, sorry about any misunderstandings first off. My point stands in that yes I would agree its important, if China is to be a respectable power in the world. In regards to the latter though, does it have any consequences? I would still say not really. Its important first off to be realistic with respect to what China is capable of, as it is still very much a middle income country. Basically, as it stands I still think having an entertainment sector as powerful as Japan and South Korea's would be nice, but there are more important things to worry about like technology. But above all improving the country's living standards.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why should it have? Is it comprehensively more powerful than the US already? Coming out of defense and acting like you own the world too early vs at the right time (after solidly surpassing the US) is the difference between WWIII and a successful transition to a sino-led world order.

You mean just the US or the US + its vassals, so-called Collective West?

If it is just the US, China is pretty much already more powerful or in par in every spectrum instead of a millitary of a global level.

Economically one has 25% stronger nominal, but one has 25% stronger real GDP. However it must be noted that China has 10 times healthier economy in terms of GDP structure, debt levels, government and trade deficits, monetary policy, etc. China has better infrastructure, is more industrially powerful, etc. Overall, due to all of that, I would give advantage to China.

Technologically China is above the US, hands down.

Sociologically, often times overlooked aspect, China is 10 times more united politically, ideologically, racially, ethnically, etc.

Diplomatically, Chinese had 2x times more votes in the UN regarding Hong Kong and Uighurs.

Millitary, that's overall US advantage, but China has advantage of home court for Taiwan scenario.

And not like the US vassals like EU or others could help them in the Taiwan scenario, they are far away and have their own problems.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Ah, okay that explains some things, sorry about any misunderstandings first off. My point stands in that yes I would agree its important, if China is to be a respectable power in the world. In regards to the latter though, does it have any consequences? I would still say not really. Its important first off to be realistic with respect to what China is capable of, as it is still very much a middle income country. It could do better in entertainment, but for the moment there are more important things to worry about and other areas that require the party's attention more like technology. But above all improving the country's living standards.
and is Chinese entertainment even that bad? Wandering Earth 2 alone made more money than every Japanese film of 2023 combined so far.
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is comparable to
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alone, not to mention other Chinese games.
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Meanwhile
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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
You mean just the US or the US + its vassals, so-called Collective West?
US plus what they might be willing to send, which wanes as a Western defeat becomes more likely.
If it is just the US, China is pretty much already more powerful or in par in every spectrum instead of a millitary of a global level.
That's not true. The US controls most of global banking and can militarily rival China in Asia though its global military is still more powerful.
Economically one has 25% stronger nominal, but one has 25% stronger real GDP. However it must be noted that China has 10 times healthier economy in terms of GDP structure, debt levels, government and trade deficits, monetary policy, etc. China has better infrastructure, is more industrially powerful, etc. Overall, due to all of that, I would give advantage to China.
I would agree but an economy must support military advantage before it is a factor in a short fight. This point you brought up is actually an argument to wait and grow rather than to fight now.
Technologically China is above the US, hands down.
Entirely untrue. Headed there, but as of now, untrue.
Sociologically, often times overlooked aspect, China is 10 times more united politically, ideologically, racially, ethnically, etc.
OK... but that is a prospect for long term growth, not a reason to start a war now.
Diplomatically, Chinese had 2x times more votes in the UN regarding Hong Kong and Uighurs.
Problem is that China's allies are much much weaker collectively than American allies despite the number. These votes don't amount to anything in a real fight.
Millitary, that's overall US advantage, but China has advantage of home court for Taiwan scenario.
Yes, but it could get very messy when it doesn't have to if we just wait.
And not like the US vassals like EU or others could help them in the Taiwan scenario, they are far away and have their own problems.
They'll pile on if the US is winning or if they think they can make the difference between winning and losing but they'll stay home and grimace if they see China dealing haymakers to a dazed US.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Promoting Chinese culture is important, but I really have to put my foot down and speak out against this notion diasporic Chinese still seem to have in thinking entertainment products have an actual role to play in diplomacy.

I mean if entertainment products is everything, why didn't Turkey negotiate the rapproachment between Iran and Saudi Arabia? In recent years Turkish dramas about the Ottoman Empire have reached Game of Thrones level of popularity in those countries, while most people in the region can't name a single Chinese actor outside of Jackie Chan and Jet Li. And yet it was ultimately China that brokered the groundbreaking deal. But if we were to go by the reddit Asian school of diplomacy, there need not to have been any complex talks about mutual interest, investment, economics, and security. That stuff is "boring," all Turkey had to do was go, "You like Ertugrul, you like Ertugrul, we made Ertugrul, we all love Ertugrul, let's make peace!"

Ironically, for all the talks about using entertainment to condition other country's citizens to change their foreign policy's, I think its only due to the years of conditioning Overseas Asians have been suscepted to with respect to the "importance of representation" that leads to such inane discussions about the impact of entertainment in geopolitics or even domestic politics. Like yeah, I'm happy that an Asian American movie won Best Picture at the Oscars recently and that many Asian diaspora actors who have been long robbed finally got their dues. Does it change anything though? The fact that many 1st Gen Asians in major cities still have to look over their shoulder when walking down the street? The fact that the government is all hellbent on banning Chinese companies and their subsidiaries? The fact several states want to bar people of Chinese heritage from owning propety and attending university?

No it does not, nor would countries out of the blue change their foreign and domestic interests on a dime, just because they suddenly went gaga over a Chinese soap opera.
The common problem with all of these talks about "entertainment soft power" is that it isn't actually the type of "soft power" that is politically useful. Entertainment soft power is economically useful - Japanese animation and Korean music are both large export industries - but has next to nothing to do with politics.

The type of "soft power" that is politically useful is the type I described above - media, academia, religion. Power in any of these three domains can be directly translated into political capital. If you control the world's media sources, you control the flow of information & how people think about current events. If you control academia, you control education and the basic foundation of how people think. If you are considered the authority on the religion or ideology that a group of people subscribe to, then once again, you determine how they think.

This is actual "soft power". Not entertainment. South Korea and Japan can never translate their entertainment power into political capital, but the US does it all the time with its powerful control over mainstream media and academia. Taiwanese separatism, along with Hong Kong separatism, are essentially creations of this soft power monopoly, since the basis for such movements is the ideology of self-determination, which is an American creation.
 

MarKoz81

Junior Member
Registered Member
I meant Donbas from Ukraine's perspective. Ukraine has been dealing with violent Russian-backed separatism in Donbas.

Armed separatism in Donbas exists only because Russia makes a deliberate effort to support it.

There was no violent separatism in Donbas until march of 2014 - for over 22 years that Republic of Ukraine was an independent state. There was no need because citizens of Ukraine and Russia enjoyed very similar legal privileges in each other's countries. When the protests began in 2014 they were peaceful in nature and were directed at the ousting of Yanukovych and the formation of a government by pro-western and nationalist politicians as well as efforts by nationalists to ban Russian language etc. in a deliberate attempt to further destabilize the country because they saw that as their only way to more power.

Ukraine despite Russian claims is not a nationalist country and largely rejects Bandera's ideology. Banderites were only relevant in lands that were under Austrian rule from 1772 to 1918 - Galicia, Volyhnia etc. In 2015 there was a local election and nationalist parties as well as the electoral list of Arsen Yatsenkuk got only a handful of seats in local councils. People elected Zelensky because he promised the return to "normal Ukraine". Both the nationalists and pro-Russians were fringe minorities rejected by the society. The reason why they are so visible is because they dedicate themselves to their political causes - similarly to how MAGA and LGBT/BLM are over-represented in the US.

Similarly pro-Russian Ukrainians or ethnic Russians in Ukraine were often against Russian takeover. They had no problem with Ukraine as a state because the history of Ukraine as a politically sovereign entity is long. Ukraine was one of the three founding member states when the USSR was created. It is one of the founding member states of the UN! USSR in the beginning was much more like EU today - a confederation of independent states - than the centralized USSR at its end. Gorbachev's pyerestroyka was attempting to revert those centralizing changes and bring USSR back to its revolutionary roots. This is where "Commonwealth of Independent States" came from.

The notion of what it means to be "Ukrainian" is the problem because "Ukrainians" were invented by Austrians (Germans) as means of controlling the local population. They couldn't refer to the historical name of "Rus" or "Ruthenia" because Russia (pronounced: rassiya) is a Muscovite word for "Rus". In effect you have the conflict between "Kievan Rus" and "Muscovy Rus" which is somewhat like the conflict between RoC and PRC where Chinese people on Taiwan got the idea that they are not Taiwanese Chinese but Taiwanese. And that has to do with religion. Ukrainian nationalists of OUN (Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists) were Catholic because they were Austrian supporters while the majority of Ukrainians are Orthodox. This is where a lot of the initial confusion came from because today most people in the west don't recognize how much of a role religion played in shaping of political identity a century ago. "Ukrainian" was Catholic while "Ruthenian" was Orthodox and because of the role of Russian Tsar as in Russian Orthodox church in the course of war it shifted toward anti-Russian for Catholics and pro-Russian for the Orthodox.

This is the confusion that underpins the conflict around identity. Today there is a state called "Ukraine" and two movements make a claim to "Ukrainian" identity. One based in that old anti-Russian identity informed by religion and conflict and one based in current Ukrainian citizenship and the legacy of Ukrainian Radiyanska Socialist Republic where "Radianska" is Ukrainian for "Soviet" from "rada" meaning "council" in Ukrainian.

So my point is that the people in Donbas went out in the streets to protests which lasted throughout March of 2014. And then FSB smuggled in armed thugs (among them Igor Girkin) who took over city councils by force and established "Donetsk People's Republic" on 7 April 2014 and "Luhansk People's Republic" on 27 April 2014. The Ukrainian government reacted by starting an anti-terrorist operation and rightly so because the DPR and LPR were terrorist entities engaging in de facto and de jure acts of terror. In the beginning people didn't think much of it because many ethnic Russians pushed for federal structure in Ukraine and thought that DPR and LPR could be a beginning of that process. (That's why Yanukovych's party is called "Party of Regions" by the way). The problem was that the army was disorganized as a result of the coup and anti-Yanukovych purges but by June they put things somewhat in order and began a coordinated operation. It also helped that Poroshenko was elected president in an election that was considered legitimate compared to what happened in February. By August Ukraine almost regained control which is when Russia intervenes directly in Ukraine and that established the territory of DPR and LPR that existed until 24 of February.


As far as Russians who were Ukrainian citizens went there would be no armed insurrection as least not until governmet in Kiyv would begin to repress them. It's not that they considered themselves Ukrainian. It's that it made no sense much as it makes no sense for Scots or Welsh or Irish to complain about living in England.

Separatism was entirely orchestrated from Moscow as means of destabilizing the country and preventing Ukraine from legalizing status-quo without Crimea to join NATO with a completely invented narrative of "genocide" to accompany it. Ukrainian nationalists would be a problem but they were removed from power in the next election along with most anti-Russian hawks. Poroshenko lost the election because he turned toward them in the end as his popularity dropped.

I understand that it's difficult to get a clear picture on Ukraine in a place like SDF but that's what happened. There was no conflict between Ukrainians and Russians. It was always a conflict between Moscow/Putin and Washington over imperial spheres of influece and energy markets with pro-Russian and pro-Western oligarchs taking sides with hopes for power. People could argue and disagree but they would not fight. They've lived side by side for decades as part of one political entity.

If China unifies Taiwan after it is thoroughly desinicized in identity it will have the same problem there. I mean terrorism and dissent here. And yes, as you said it will also be accused of Taiwanese genocide, which its anti-terrorism efforts will be provided as evidence on BBC and CNN.

You mean like the terrorism and dissent that England has in Wales? Or in Scotland? The terrorism in Northern Ireland was sectarian violence between religious groups of Irish. Republic and the UK had perfectly amicable relations by then with a Common Travel Area and essentially the same rights for citizes of both countries.

Look what happened in Basque country and how the Basque - a genuine separate ethnicity and culture that has nothing in common with the rest of Spain - treated ETA. Hint: not well.

There's no reason why "Taiwanese" people have to conduct armed struggle against China unless there is external support for it like in Xinjiang.

Taiwan has been a 100% separatist entity for at least 15 years complete with a newly manufactured identity. They dropped their vision of unifying China under ROC decades before even that, both at the government and public levels.

Even if they abandoned the notion of restoring RoC KMT were still in favour of reunification that allowed them to remain nominally in control of the island - a confederation like the Union State of Belarus and Russia. KMT do not support independence because their very political identify and interests are against it. So no, Taiwan is not a "100% separatist entity". There's a reason why US and Japan put so much effort into maintaining DPP in power.

DPP is the 100% separatist entity and even then it's mostly for show because they know how unrealistic it is considering Taiwan's growing economic depedancy on China.

Japan does it only because US enables it as more convenient way of stimulating separatism that seems "genuine" for ignorant Americans and Europeans. With US out of the picture there is no 'Taiwan separatism" any more than hippies were ever a serious threat to American establishment.
 
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Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Entirely untrue. Headed there, but as of now, untrue.

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That's industries of the future, and it's not a single study. Just type in paper citations of most industries of the future, China is always ahead of the US, now gunning with the whole West combined. Technological Implementation, that's China lead to alongside education and science. Chinese score better from kindergarten to universities and they have higher IQ on average.

Millitary technology, China has better drones and hypersonic missiles. And those advantages that US has, like nuclear bombers, carriers and submarines, China is closing the gap.

They'll pile on if the US is winning or if they think they can make the difference between winning and losing but they'll stay home if they see China dealing haymakers to a dazed US.

That's true, but now with a war in the Ukraine, they probably can't help much because of Russia. Their citizens are already fed. They don't want their 10% inflation to x10. And they don't have enough millitary industrial capacity because of that. And they always have a paranoia that Russia would attack them, so they won't overextend. China must take this chance when the West is so invested in Ukraine.
 
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