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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The common problem with all of these talks about "entertainment soft power" is that it isn't actually the type of "soft power" that is politically useful. Entertainment soft power is economically useful - Japanese animation and Korean music are both large export industries - but has next to nothing to do with politics.

The type of "soft power" that is politically useful is the type I described above - media, academia, religion. Power in any of these three domains can be directly translated into political capital. If you control the world's media sources, you control the flow of information & how people think about current events. If you control academia, you control education and the basic foundation of how people think. If you are considered the authority on the religion or ideology that a group of people subscribe to, then once again, you determine how they think.

This is actual "soft power". Not entertainment. South Korea and Japan can never translate their entertainment power into political capital, but the US does it all the time with its powerful control over mainstream media and academia. Taiwanese separatism, along with Hong Kong separatism, are essentially creations of this soft power monopoly, since the basis for such movements is the ideology of self-determination, which is an American creation.
100%. This was something I never had the words for, but you put it perfectly. Example: Iran and Saudi Arabia have immense soft power even if their movies are bad, because people won't kill and die for Avengers or Spiderman, but they will for their religion.
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, yet nobody would say that Saudi Arabia is basically a western country, you'd be ridiculed.
 

solarz

Brigadier
and is Chinese entertainment even that bad? Wandering Earth 2 alone made more money than every Japanese film of 2023 combined so far.
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is comparable to
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alone, not to mention other Chinese games.
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Meanwhile
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The thing people fail to grasp is that Korea and Japan cornered some specific segments of the market, while China and US dominates everything else.

It's like comparing a specialty boutique to Walmart.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Armed separatism in Donbas exists only because Russia makes a deliberate effort to support it.

There was no violent separatism in Donbas until march of 2014 - for over 22 years that Republic of Ukraine was an independent state. There was no need because citizens of Ukraine and Russia enjoyed very similar legal privileges in each other's countries. When the protests began in 2014 they were peaceful in nature and were directed at the ousting of Yanukovych and the formation of a government by pro-western and nationalist politicians as well as efforts by nationalists to ban Russian language etc. in a deliberate attempt to further destabilize the country because they saw that as their only way to more power.

Ukraine despite Russian claims is not a nationalist country and largely rejects Bandera's ideology. Banderites were only relevant in lands that were under Austrian rule from 1772 to 1918 - Galicia, Volyhnia etc. In 2015 there was a local election and nationalist parties as well as the electoral list of Arsen Yatsenkuk got only a handful of seats in local councils. People elected Zelensky because he promised the return to "normal Ukraine". Both the nationalists and pro-Russians were fringe minorities rejected by the society. The reason why they are so visible is because they dedicate themselves to their political causes - similarly to how MAGA and LGBT/BLM are over-represented in the US.

Similarly pro-Russian Ukrainians or ethnic Russians in Ukraine were often against Russian takeover. They had no problem with Ukraine as a state because the history of Ukraine as a politically sovereign entity is long. Ukraine was one of the three founding member states when the USSR was created. It is one of the founding member states of the UN! USSR in the beginning was much more like EU today - a confederation of independent states - than the centralized USSR at its end. Gorbachev's pyerestroyka was attempting to revert those centralizing changes and bring USSR back to its revolutionary roots. This is where "Commonwealth of Independent States" came from.

The notion of what it means to be "Ukrainian" is the problem because "Ukrainians" were invented by Austrians (Germans) as means of controlling the local population. They couldn't refer to the historical name of "Rus" or "Ruthenia" because Russia (pronounced: rassiya) is a Muscovite word for "Rus". In effect you have the conflict between "Kievan Rus" and "Muscovy Rus" which is somewhat like the conflict between RoC and PRC where Chinese people on Taiwan got the idea that they are not Taiwanese Chinese but Taiwanese. And that has to do with religion. Ukrainian nationalists of OUN (Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists) were Catholic because they were Austrian supporters while the majority of Ukrainians are Orthodox. This is where a lot of the initial confusion came from because today most people in the west don't recognize how much of a role religion played in shaping of political identity a century ago. "Ukrainian" was Catholic while "Ruthenian" was Orthodox and because of the role of Russian Tsar as in Russian Orthodox church in the course of war it shifted toward anti-Russian for Catholics and pro-Russian for the Orthodox.

This is the confusion that underpins the conflict around identity. Today there is a state called "Ukraine" and two movements make a claim to "Ukrainian" identity. One based in that old anti-Russian identity informed by religion and conflict and one based in current Ukrainian citizenship and the legacy of Ukrainian Radiyanska Socialist Republic where "Radianska" is Ukrainian for "Soviet" from "rada" meaning "council" in Ukrainian.

So my point is that the people in Donbas went out in the streets to protests which lasted throughout March of 2014. And then FSB smuggled in armed thugs (among them Igor Girkin) who took over city councils by force and established "Donetsk People's Republic" on 7 April 2014 and "Luhansk People's Republic" on 27 April 2014. The Ukrainian government reacted by starting an anti-terrorist operation and rightly so because the DPR and LPR were terrorist entities engaging in de facto and de jure acts of terror. In the beginning people didn't think much of it because many ethnic Russians pushed for federal structure in Ukraine and thought that DPR and LPR could be a beginning of that process. (That's why Yanukovych's party is called "Party of Regions" by the way). The problem was that the army was disorganized as a result of the coup and anti-Yanukovych purges but by June they put things somewhat in order and began a coordinated operation. It also helped that Poroshenko was elected president in an election that was considered legitimate compared to what happened in February. By August Ukraine almost regained control which is when Russia intervenes directly in Ukraine and that established the territory of DPR and LPR that existed until 24 of February.


As far as Russians who were Ukrainian citizens went there would be no armed insurrection as least not until governmet in Kiyv would begin to repress them. It's not that they considered themselves Ukrainian. It's that it made no sense much as it makes no sense for Scots or Welsh or Irish to complain about living in England.

Separatism was entirely orchestrated from Moscow as means of destabilizing the country and preventing Ukraine from legalizing status-quo without Crimea to join NATO with a completely invented narrative of "genocide" to accompany it. Ukrainian nationalists would be a problem but they were removed from power in the next election along with most anti-Russian hawks. Poroshenko lost the election because he turned toward them in the end as his popularity dropped.

I understand that it's difficult to get a clear picture on Ukraine in a place like SDF but that's what happened. There was no conflict between Ukrainians and Russians. It was always a conflict between Moscow/Putin and Washington over imperial spheres of influece and energy markets with pro-Russian and pro-Western oligarchs taking sides with hopes for power. People could argue and disagree but they would not fight. They've lived side by side for decades as part of one political entity.



You mean like the terrorism and dissent that England has in Wales? Or in Scotland? The terrorism in Northern Ireland was sectarian violence between religious groups of Irish. Republic and the UK had perfectly amicable relations by then with a Common Travel Area and essentially the same rights for citizes of both countries.

Look what happened in Basque country and how the Basque - a genuine separate ethnicity and culture that has nothing in common with the rest of Spain - treated ETA. Hint: not well.

There's no reason why "Taiwanese" people have to conduct armed struggle against China unless there is external support for it like in Xinjiang.



Even if they abandoned the notion of restoring RoC KMT were still in favour of reunification that allowed them to remain nominally in control of the island - a confederation like the Union State of Belarus and Russia. KMT do not support independence because their very political identify and interests are against it. So no, Taiwan is not a "100% separatist entity". There's a reason why US and Japan put so much effort into maintaining DPP in power.

DPP is the 100% separatist entity and even then it's mostly for show because they know how unrealistic it is considering Taiwan's growing economic depedancy on China.

Japan does it only because US enables it as more convenient way of stimulating separatism that seems "genuine" for ignorant Americans and Europeans. With US out of the picture there is no 'Taiwan separatism" any more than hippies were ever a serious threat to American establishment.


I see that you don't like Russia, and you're comparing it to the US, however, it can't be compared.

Even though both the US and Russia defiled international law, the US did it 10 times more, and thousands of kilometers away, from their borders, not because of security, but because of their sadism and preserving hegemony and petrodollar.

Russia did it because of preserving their own A2AD and the "heartland" and Moscow.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
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That's industries of the future, and it's not a single study. Just type in paper citations of most industries of the future, China is always ahead of the US, now gunning with the whole West combined. Technological Implementation, that's China lead to alongside education and science. Chinese score better from kindergarten to universities and they have higher IQ on average.
Chinese tech improves much faster and its research is more dynamic but the US still sits on a mountain of accumulated mature technologies that are ready to use. Only recently has China started dominating research speed; it takes time for that to translate into functional dominance.
Millitary technology, China has better drones and hypersonic missiles. And those advantages that US has, like nuclear bombers, carriers and submarines, China is closing the gap.
Yeah, exactly. Closing the gap. Dominance is preferred before acting; closing the gap is not only not dominant, it is actually still behind. Every thing here says it makes sense for China to wait.
That's true, but now with a war in the Ukraine, they probably can't help much because of Russia. Their citizens are already fed. They don't want their 10% inflation to x10. And they don't have enough millitary industrial capacity because of that. And they always have a paranoia that Russia would attack them, so they won't overextend. China must take this chance when the West is so invested in Ukraine.
So move now while China is still behind the US in nuclear bombers, carriers and submarines and the rest of NATO is too tired to help to US or move later when China is ahead in all fields and the rest of NATO is too scared to help the US? Should be an easy choice if we forgo the, "Aaaahhhhhh it's too embarrassing! I can't take it anymore!!"
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
You mean just the US or the US + its vassals, so-called Collective West?

If it is just the US, China is pretty much already more powerful or in par in every spectrum instead of a millitary of a global level.

Economically one has 25% stronger nominal, but one has 25% stronger real GDP. However it must be noted that China has 10 times healthier economy in terms of GDP structure, debt levels, government and trade deficits, monetary policy, etc. China has better infrastructure, is more industrially powerful, etc. Overall, due to all of that, I would give advantage to China.

Technologically China is above the US, hands down.

Sociologically, often times overlooked aspect, China is 10 times more united politically, ideologically, racially, ethnically, etc.

Diplomatically, Chinese had 2x times more votes in the UN regarding Hong Kong and Uighurs.

Millitary, that's overall US advantage, but China has advantage of home court for Taiwan scenario.

And not like the US vassals like EU or others could help them in the Taiwan scenario, they are far away and have their own problems.
In a comprehensive power comparison its always about China vs the American Empire, not just the US.

if it was just the US, China could have already pulled the trigger on all fields (excl. military, and even there, China could throw them out by diplomacy).

IMO China needs at least another 10 years to match the entire American Empire
 
D

Deleted member 23272

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and is Chinese entertainment even that bad? Wandering Earth 2 alone made more money than every Japanese film of 2023 combined so far.
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is comparable to
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alone, not to mention other Chinese games.
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Meanwhile
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Oh don't get me wrong, China's been producing some good stuff recently, its just that for things the themes are something only Chinese people can relate to, it's not exactly exportable stuff and that's what the topic of convo is. What is exportable is mostly video games, BL which the government unfortunately cracked down on. I do think Tencent's Three Body drama will get some traction once the Netflix version comes out, just with how many people are going to want to compare the two.

I also want to say let's not get overboard with the obsession with popularity and actually make sure the stuff being exported is good. Like I used to be one of those overseas Asians who lapped up East Asian melodramas to satisfy my "representation" cravings, but now I look back and cringe because, let's be real, those are not by any stretch of the imagination good. That's not to say they're meritless and somewhat entertaining, but the stories are shallow with no reflection on domestic culture and the image they give of their characters is just sickeningly divorced from reality. Like seriously, a protagonist who is a single barista, but can still afford to wear Chanel to work?

Also Japan and South Korea are entertainment heavyweights, but they still reach very specific demographics, whereas American entertainment appeals to everyone. It will take time to get to that level, because you need technology in order to accomplish that. But as I've said before in many posts, Chinese are patient.
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Europe simple do not have the productive capacity for high intensity warfare. This isn’t even a money problem. Its a problem of physical production constraints that will be exacerbated by the energy crisis...

Image
They forget that explosives are made of petrochemicals.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
I see that you don't like Russia, and you're comparing it to the US, however, it can't be compared.

Even though both the US and Russia defiled international law, the US did it 10 times more, and thousands of kilometers away, from their borders, not because of security, but because of their sadism and preserving hegemony and petrodollar.

Russia did it because of preserving their own A2AD and the "heartland" and Moscow.
He does have an anti-Russia stance, but it doesn't detract from the fact that he does write a lot of good comments, whether on Russia or not (ofc his words can't be taken uncritically (nothing should), especially when it's about Russia).

As for that comment of his in regards to Russian involvement in Donbass, I can't really verify (haven't followed that closely), but likely not all that wrong, although a lot of civilians in Donbass has died due to shelling by Ukraine before 2022 (there's a number of 14k floating around), whether or not it constitutes genocide I can't judge, but it's unmistaken that actual civilians have been killed or injured.

Besides that, I think he kinda downplays the role that Neo-Nazi's play into current Ukrainian government (although their role might been smaller around 2014). And in general also how much influence the US has had in the 2014 coup (and continues to have in current day Ukrainian government).

Although rather than downplay, he might just have not expanded into that topic since it would lead to quite a lot more stuff to be written.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chinese tech improves much faster and its research is more dynamic but the US still sits on a mountain of accumulated mature technologies that are ready to use. Only recently has China started dominating research speed; it takes time for that to translate into functional dominance.

Yeah, exactly. Closing the gap. Dominance is preferred before acting; closing the gap is not only not dominant, it is actually still behind. Every thing here says it makes sense for China to wait.

So move now while China is still behind the US in nuclear bombers, carriers and submarines and the rest of NATO is too tired to help to US or move later when China is ahead in all fields and the rest of NATO is too scared to help the US? Should be an easy choice if we forgo the, "Aaaahhhhhh it's too embarrassing! I can't take it anymore!!"

Out of mature technologies, US has those wide body Boeing large planes. Regarding the rest of mature technologies, they don't have much stuff that China didn't already master. I'm not talking about market share, but Chinese ability to produce on its own or live without American counterparts.

I'm not worried about the civilian field, look how China is technologically helping Russia get through this war in Ukraine.

Millitary field, that's when the US still has technological advantage. However, I think that China will close the gap in 2027, not in numbers, but in its ability to produce that.

But, overall I'm understanding and agreeing to your logic of waiting until your are 100% sure and are able to totally dominate with an overwhelming advantage. HOWEVER, that was the case until America didn't start provoking China that much.

At this point, American provocations are actually stalling Chinese growth and reputation around the world.
 
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