Miscellaneous News

horse said:

Look at it this way from a basic angle of how a company is run. The important things are to stay focused on your goals. What are the goals for the CCP?

I going back the idea of Chairman Mao, kick the Americans out of East Asia.

Then there probably a new goal too, globalization, with China benefiting from that via trade with other countries. The One Belt One Road project would be another effort at that.

Then there are always the internal goals of self-improvement, outlined continuous in policy ideas and 5 year plans.

Anything else, probably just periphery concerns.

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I think the CCP has its strength and weaknesses. Xi does ok job with managing the economy. But his outward strategy is completely non-existant and frankly kinda stupid. He is falling into a trap that Pompeo set for China by bickering with Taiwan, ASEAN, India. Pushing these places deeper into the embrace with the US. Who wants these countries to fight their own proxy war with China.

I don't see how that is a periphery reason. The US has ton of allies to ban Huawei. If China wants to continue trade than it needs to win over its own allies. And Xi has no idea how to do it.

Granted China has a weaker card, it can't military commit to protect its own allies nor can it print its own global currency nor does it share any values based on race or religion or ideology with any other countries.

That's why even Iran has more allies than China.

caudaceus said:

Depends, there is a pitfall using this strategy. Right now Democrats are expected to win the trifecta (House, Senat, and Presidency). However, as shown during the 2010 midterm, suddenly Republicans became deficit hawks with the rise of the tea party faction and retake the House. That's why I don't think the democrats can easily print and spend.

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QE is not like a recent thing. Fed Chairman Helicopter Ben started it during the Obama era.

It was good for the rich people.

BLM!

free_6ix9ine said:

I think the CCP has its strength and weaknesses. Xi does ok job with managing the economy. But his outward strategy is completely non-existant and frankly kinda stupid. He is falling into a trap that Pompeo set for China by bickering with Taiwan, ASEAN, India. Pushing these places deeper into the embrace with the US. Who wants these countries to fight their own proxy war with China.

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Times change.

Deng's advice of keeping your head down is gonzo.

Be hard. Keep people in line, or else. That should be the new policy.

horse said:

Times change.

Deng's advice of keeping your head down is gonzo.

Be hard. Keep people in line, or else. That should be the new policy.

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What? It's not about being hard or soft. It's about having a cohesive strategy and cards to play. China has neither and needs to pivot to find those 2 things. I have zero confidence that Xi is capable of it.

free_6ix9ine said:

What? It's not about being hard or soft. It's about having a cohesive strategy and cards to play. China has neither and needs to pivot to find those 2 things. I have zero confidence that Xi is capable of it.

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The Chinese Communist Party, and I would say, the Chinese people, are not interested in remaking the world into the same image as the American one, and replacing America with China.

If the world runs a on certain model now, with the USA on top, the goal of the CCP is not to replace the USA inside this model with China. The model remains the same, but the pecking order change.

I never believed that.

The Chinese Communist Party is still communist, they want to overthrow the model, and that they need the Third World, places like Africa, some parts of ASEAN, parts of the Middle East, they all have to be on the same page to do that.

Time will tell how well this goes.

horse said:

The Chinese Communist Party, and I would say, the Chinese people, are not interested in remaking the world into the same image as the American one, and replacing America with China.

If the world runs a on certain model now, with the USA on top, the goal of the CCP is not to replace the USA inside this model with China. The model remains the same, but the pecking order change.

I never believed that.

The Chinese Communist Party is still communist, they want to overthrow the model, and that they need the Third World, places like Africa, some parts of ASEAN, parts of the Middle East, they all have to be on the same page to do that.

Time will tell how well this goes.

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I doubt it. China's best case scenario is some sort of multi polar world where the US has diminished status.

China has literally zero experience in great power competition. Historically it was always isolated and never undertaken any sort of major global war or even colonized another country or spread its own ideology. Its had a merchant mindset for the past thousand years.

The US has fought in both world wars, defeated Nazi Germany and Japan, won the cold war. Turned Europe, Japan, Korea into its own vassals.

I know who I would bet on to win a new cold War.

@free_6ix9ine I do not at all agree with you.

First of all, the "merchant mindset" is a mindset of self-preservation and strengthening. When countries lack this mindset, they become like the Soviet Union or North Korea. I would say this mindset is what makes China such a powerful challenge to the US. Of course, the downfall of the dollar is something that China wants but in the end, the only way is for China to keep playing to the game, become economically more powerful than the US, and then have the US make big mistakes in its desperation. This is not something that China can just achieve with some sort of full on attack, which would be the opposite, I guess, of the "merchant mindset." Your way is what causes smaller, weaker countries to throw themselves at the US and to forever remain small and weak, a thorn in America's side at best, while China grows into America's biggest challenge.

First of all, Xi's economy is the strongest and most resilient in the world, so it's better then, "ok." Secondly, if you think the outward strategy is "stupid," then what is the alternative? China doesn't start conflicts but it certainly doesn't back down from them. The opposite of what China is doing now would be to make concessions to avoid confrontations with non-US countries and we all know that that's a slippery slope and they'll all come for more once they smell blood. The only way is to continue forward as China is doing now, to take every challenge from every country that thought they could be opportunistic in their ventures against China, and show them that they will always be on the losing side if they're not on the Chinese side. Show them how stupid it is to be a dog for America. This is just like Chess; you cannot hope to attack the enemy king ignoring all of his pawns; you need to take them apart one-by-one until the king is defenseless.

Despite its "war experience", the US has always lost to China, whether it be in Korea or Vietnam. America only grew strong by attacking others when they were weak. Those opportunities are over now and the competition is innovation. America is now finding that it cannot innovate better than China and therefore, it sees no future in its power, causing it to become desperate. There are no more Koreas or Japans for it to conquer, but there is endlessly more innovation for China to grow. And even those countries that were on America's side will jump ship once they are convinced that it is sinking. I know who I'm betting on.

Not very breaking news but might be interesting.

Do you think another October surprise based on Iran still possible?

horse said:

Does anyone know what this long term strategy towards China is being devised by the Americans?

It is all BS.

It has to be coherent.

If it is not coherent, it will not be taken too seriously and China will continue unimpeded, like what it is doing now.

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free_6ix9ine said:

I bet biden will hire Pompeo. Or hire someone like Pompeo but is actually competent. That's why both Trump and Biden are bad for China. It's just that Biden is worse, because they both hate China. But Biden will be more competent in trying to undermine China.

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Biden is not competent. He's a centralist. But unlike Trump who doesn't listen to anybody except his own ego. Biden is easily controlled. There is no stopping US - China friction; it will likely get worse in the coming years, not better. But With Biden, it will not be announced over twitter, but happen more behind the scene.