Miscellaneous News

Randomuser said:

North Korea has loads of missiles and nukes. Yet they haven't really been able properly to "blackmail" Japan with it.

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Ofcourse they did, they essentially blackmailed the US and others from "doing Iran style Bunker busting" on its nuke program by using its massive artillery capability against Seoul.

If Japan tries to develop Nukes in the future and Japan already has thousands of hypersonic missiles deployed against China, then it is essentially blackmailing China from not trying to militarily stop Japan.

China will have to weigh the cost of thousands of Japanese missiles coming against Chinese cities and destroying valuable assets vs Going after Japanese nuke program.

China's military intervention against Japan will not be cost free, there will be huge destruction inside China as well. So, it will require enormous level of guts for whoever is Chinese leader at the time to pull the trigger against Japan.

I am afraid China will not be able to subdue Japan without going to a costly war and it cannot allow Japan to develop nukes which will be even more costly. Cause Japan is suicidal enough to launch Nukes against China even if it means its own destruction. They are the inventors of Kamikaze attacks.

I think China needs to prepare to go to war against Japan in the next 10 years.

tamsen_ikard said:

Ofcourse they did, they essentially blackmailed the US and others from "doing Iran style Bunker busting" on its nuke program by using its massive artillery capability against Seoul.

If Japan tries to develop Nukes in the future and Japan already has thousands of hypersonic missiles deployed against China, then it is essentially blackmailing China from not trying to militarily stop Japan.

China will have to weigh the cost of thousands of Japanese missiles coming against Chinese cities and destroying valuable assets vs Going after Japanese nuke program.

China's military intervention against Japan will not be cost free, there will be huge destruction inside China as well. So, it will require enormous level of guts for whoever is Chinese leader at the time to pull the trigger against Japan.

I am afraid China will not be able to subdue Japan without going to a costly war and it cannot allow Japan to develop nukes which will be even more costly. Cause Japan is suicidal enough to launch Nukes against China even if it means its own destruction. They are the inventors of Kamikaze attacks.

I think China needs to prepare to go to war against Japan in the next 10 years.

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War will come in much less time than that, I'd say by 2028 at the latest given all the cumulative and ongoing developments, but it's a fight that will reach the continental US itself, not only Japan. That's why WW3 will be between the Eastern members of the WWII Allies facing against the Western fascist aligned block.

BoraTas said:

Asset appreciation would collapse the carry trade. The Japanese carry trade has been a thing because Japan had a zero bond interest rate, almost no growth and flat markets. The Japanese rich had to move the money abroad to grow it. If they get an asset appreciation significantly above the currency depreciation they would stop the carry trade. Which is great for them. But not good for the USA or normal Japanese.

My long standing opinion has been the Chinese being way too soft about Japan. That country hates China at a grassroots level. Their dislike ratio chart looks like GDP per capita graph of PRC. They like China only when it is poor. And their dislike ratio is like 95%. When you ask, they answer things like "Chinese immigrants are too loud". I don't know you but that does not sound like a valid reason for such an hatred to me. Over the last 20 years it always was China who was trying to keep the relationship functional. We are where the band aid needs to be ripped.

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His point is that, Takaichi‘s fiscal stimulus and tax cuts will injecte liquidity into the market, inevitably leading to a rapid depreciation of the yen, and it will faster than the rate of asset appreciation. Japan has no way to actually drivel asset appreciation, if there were, the past 30 years wouldn't have been so lifeless until now. All they need to do is follow the wealthy and then flee.

tamsen_ikard said:

Ofcourse they did, they essentially blackmailed the US and others from "doing Iran style Bunker busting" on its nuke program by using its massive artillery capability against Seoul.

If Japan tries to develop Nukes in the future and Japan already has thousands of hypersonic missiles deployed against China, then it is essentially blackmailing China from not trying to militarily stop Japan.

China will have to weigh the cost of thousands of Japanese missiles coming against Chinese cities and destroying valuable assets vs Going after Japanese nuke program.

China's military intervention against Japan will not be cost free, there will be huge destruction inside China as well. So, it will require enormous level of guts for whoever is Chinese leader at the time to pull the trigger against Japan.

I am afraid China will not be able to subdue Japan without going to a costly war and it cannot allow Japan to develop nukes which will be even more costly. Cause Japan is suicidal enough to launch Nukes against China even if it means its own destruction. They are the inventors of Kamikaze attacks.

I think China needs to prepare to go to war against Japan in the next 10 years.

Click to expand...

I doubt Japan has a load hypersonic missile yet but even then, Japanese cities would have to deal with dozen of thousands Chinese missiles targeting military, power, nuclear plants, nuclear weapon stockpiles, industry, universities and economic targets in a area that is many many times smaller than China, pretty easy target.

At the end of the day war sum up as if the sacrifice is worth it and in the case nuclear weapons Japan would have to decide if sacrificing Tokyo and a million of people who live there is a worthy price for a capital that is just 100 km from the Chinese coast.

My guess is that they will conclude that sacrificing Tokyo for Taipei is not worth it. The Japanese warmongers right wingers are opportunistic but I don´t think they are that stupid.

montyp165 said:

War will come in much less time than that, I'd say by 2028 at the latest given all the cumulative and ongoing developments, but it's a fight that will reach the continental US itself, not only Japan. That's why WW3 will be between the Eastern members of the WWII Allies facing against the Western fascist aligned block.

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if a war does happen there is a very real possibility of the US chickening out given all of their war games against China result in defeat or a draw, so they could be a situation were the US materially supports japan trough trade but i don't see them getting personally involved, this would be similar to Ukraine were they only support Ukraine with intelligence and weapons but don't have their soldiers actually on the ground, also we have to keep in mind that the way things are going with the decline of the US by 2028 they will be less capable to actually fight China head on then they were in 2025 and that will mean even less probability of them getting involved.

All in all Japan being left out in the cold with only some regional support like the Philippines and South Korea is a very real possibility but even that is unlikely given your 2028 time frame and the given geopolitical changes within that time frame.

BoraTas said:

Asset appreciation would collapse the carry trade. The Japanese carry trade has been a thing because Japan had a zero bond interest rate, almost no growth and flat markets. The Japanese rich had to move the money abroad to grow it. If they get an asset appreciation significantly above the currency depreciation they would stop the carry trade. Which is great for them. But not good for the USA or normal Japanese.

My long standing opinion has been the Chinese being way too soft about Japan. That country hates China at a grassroots level. Their dislike ratio chart looks like GDP per capita graph of PRC. They like China only when it is poor. And their dislike ratio is like 95%. When you ask, they answer things like "Chinese immigrants are too loud". I don't know you but that does not sound like a valid reason for such an hatred to me. Over the last 20 years it always was China who was trying to keep the relationship functional. We are where the band aid needs to be ripped.

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Not to mention that it’s a good way to show solidarity with the Canucks to take out one of their chief competitors in the gooning sphere…

siegecrossbow said:

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tokenanalyst said:

At the end of the day war sum up as if the sacrifice is worth it and in the case nuclear weapons Japan would have to decide if sacrificing Tokyo and a million of people who live there is a worthy price for a capital that is just 100 km from the Chinese coast.

My guess is that they will conclude that sacrificing Tokyo for Taipei is not worth it. The Japanese warmongers right wingers are opportunistic but I don´t think they are that stupid.

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They are fatalistic and welcome death if it means punishing their perceived enemies. The recent election results prove that. China needs to start making contingency plans to rapidly ramp up a possible military option that results in not just 1 million in Tokyo, but 50 to 100X as much. It's a stomach churning decision, but China can not shy away. It is existential.

Yes they know what everyone is thinking… That’s why they have to come out and do damage control. The Jews stereotype themselves as being neurotic so just imagine how insecure they are feeling when even though Israel has the support of the Western governments, it’s a fine line in a democracy when public opinion is not so much in their favor. I remember not too long ago where people were generally very careful not to say anything that can be interpreted as antisemitic. Remember the “War on Christmas”? That whole thing started because it was all about protecting Jewish sensitivities over Christmas but they just don’t say it. It was covered up with other competing holidays such as Kwanzaa. But these days so many are freely criticizing Israel from both sides enough that Jews are running to the protection of the traditionally antisemitic right where they immediately encounter a newly more acceptable right-wing antisemitism questioning them. I even encounter the OG right-wing antisemites because when I go into other forums to harass right-wingers, I get accused of being paid for by the Jews. I think they’re confused because they’re suppose to be on their side now and I was defending Hasan Piker.

Thecore said:

They are fatalistic and welcome death if it means punishing their perceived enemies. The recent election results prove that. China needs to start making contingency plans to rapidly ramp up a possible military option that results in not just 1 million dead in Tokyo, but 50 to 100X as much. It's a stomach churning decision, but China can not shy away. It is existential.

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If China doesn't start spending double triple their current military budget and prepare for War in earnest, then they will regret it later. I feel 2026 is similar to in 1933, it is a prelude to war. If CHina doesn't move to rapidly and massively improve its military, they will suffer when the war actually starts.

uguduwa said:

If they protest against J-dawg they might as well protest against their own prophet. Mo did pretty much everything that big J is accused of without an island of course and still regarded as the perfect human by hundreds of millions of people.

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What about Gandhi?