My two cents is that, there's on paper strength and how effectively one mobilizes that strength. I'm not even being sanguine here, these past few years have given us glimpses of the capacity of the US to both coordinate its allies in response to crisis and the capacity of its own allies to pick up the slack when the US is absent. I think when it comes to Europe the results are as clear as day. They lack the war production capacity and the will to unify in response to a crisis on its own friggin doorstep. The conflict is not even far off, as Russian FSB agents have been operating in Europe and drones occasionally violate the airspace of NATO nations, but Europe still can't agree on how to respond and is ever beholden to electorates who think little of the geopolitical consequences of the war and would rather focus on cost of living, housing, and migration. And that's militarily speaking, on the economic front they've essentially all but admitted defeat against China.The thing is, China is not as strong as you (and unfortunately many others) presume. Let us not forget the US & its vassals are still 50% of the world’s GDP and that China’s manufacturing share is only 30% or so of the world’s total. It is not as dominant as often portrayed. Individually China maybe the strongest country, but collectively it can’t take on the entirety of the US empire.
So the reality is that China cannot just stoke the fires of conflict and give reason for the US & its vassals to unite in common purpose. Japan is actually one of the countries China was trying to go neutral on Taiwan, and under its previous prime minister there were signs that Japan might actually be receptive.
Unfortunately in came the right wing chicken hawk who exploited the party’s in fighting to assume leadership. She’s certainly torpedoed relations, but I think the Chinese leadership still assumes she’s a flash in the pan and that the next Japanese leader will be more mature & reasonable. Hence starting small with the sticks so as to not alienate every last Japanese leader and make it impossible for a dove to mend relations.
The only way to beat the US empire in the long term is divide & conquer. You don’t want them putting aside their differences and uniting against you with half the world.
China is strong but not THAT strong.
And going against the grain, I do believe the temperature from India has been toned down significantly. They no doubt would take advantage of the situation if they sensed China was losing, but considering that since the Bangladesh coup India does not have a single friend in its neighborhood anymore, its hands are tied.
Imo, the only US allies that it could fully count on joining in a China contingency without question are Aus, Japan, and the Philippines. Even South Korea, despite all the hoopla about netizens from both countries having beef over Hanbok and Kimchi, mostly remains neutral on China issues and has North Korea to keep their hands tied.
And then there's the US itself, where around the globe it has the bigger military than China, but around the globe being the operative words since China was always going to engage the US's pacific operations rather than its whole military, which from the looks of it can become bogged down in Latin America pretty soon.
Obviously, China won't go bum rushing into conflict. Either way you cut it wars are expensive and would throw a wrench into Chinese economic development, the government's number one priority to the Chinese nation. But if things did come to blows, I would say the playing field is a little more level than one would believe.