China chip output is set to triple in 2026 but ASML see Chinese demand to decline significantly in 2026.
ASML is lying by omission as usual. If it declines it will only be until the fab shells of the next major Chinese fab expansion cycle come up. This could begin as early as late 2026.
YMTC, CXMT are already amassing the funding for Phase III expansion on their main sites and work seems to have already started in some cases. Same deal for Hua Hong Wuxi Phase III. And it is only a matter of time until SMIC expands its Beijing and Shanghai gigafab sites.
Idon't understand this at all-if the USA inventedEUV chip making lithography machines why even license it out to a place like Netherlands?Wouldn't the greedy and monopolistic US simply keep this strategic/very important technology to themselves only and have everyone buy from them on their terms???I am not sure of TMSC's standing in this but always to hear ASML in Holland puzzled me greatly.I need some enlightenment-no joke.
ASML came out of Philips. A former major consumer electronics and lighting firm founded in the Netherlands. NXP and Nexperia also came out of Philips.
It is curious you talk about TSMC because they started out as a licensee of Philips chip technology. It is how they got a relationship with ASML in the first place. Most leading edge semiconductor companies back then in Asia and the US used Japanese equipment.
As for why EUV machines ended up in the Netherlands, it is in part because the US government wanted to sink the Japanese lithography sector. They had no lithography companies of note anymore, lost them all to Japanese competition, so ASML was the next best choice for them.
Note that ASML used to use German excimer laser light sources from Lambda Physik at one point. Then that German company was bought by a US company called Coherent and is now irrelevant in the sector. They now produce mostly medical lasers. I think think they were nerfed by the US on purpose.
ASML's EUV machine was a global effort though. Russians developed the coatings for the mirrors for Zeiss, they were also paid to design the mirror system, and the tin droplet chamber from Cymer was also designed by Russian scientists who now live in the US.
Rute is an idiot. While Russia officially retired nearly all their Cold War era Su-27 and MiG-29 aircraft and put them in mothballs, NATO keeps this shit on the books, but much of it is unusable without major refurbishment. Fourty old airframes with thirty year old upgrades.
Russia's active fighter aviation park is much younger on average than that of NATO.
The tip of the sword is not the MiG-31 but the Su-35. At this point they likely outnumber the MiG-31 in service. The Su-35 has way more endurance, lower RCS, and both aircraft have at this point similar sensor and weapons capabilities.
Sure the MiG-31 is still highly capable with the BM upgrade. But high use of them in combat is killing the lifetime of the Cold War era engines. The last engines were produced in like 1995. Aviadvigatel has been working on restarting D-30F6 engine production, they can already produce the engine core with whole new components I think.
Russia only has to fear one country in NATO and that is the US. The rest is trash.
To get air superiority in the first place NATO would have to concentrate aircraft in Europe. Russia could just bomb the airfields. Especially now they have Iskander-1000 and Oreshnik in production.