You've got me thinking about Russia/Ukr war right now -I haven't paid too much attention(too little time-too much to read/shitpost)Could a massive Russian offensive be in the works to finish this war as winter (and its lull) is coming and a renewed spring campaign might be too much for even Russia to bear the cost in blood/treasure??Trump is right now in full-demented agitated fury and DefCon 1 Tradewar seems imminent with all of its implications
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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You talk about military weapons for an imminent war, and then talk about how stock piling isn't sane business practice. These contradict each other.
The military doesn't care about "sane business practice" in a scenario of imminent (next few years) war. They will stock pile what they need. They will accelerate reopening commercially intractable refineries. They will do whatever it takes to wrest rare earths from their allies' supply chains. Industry won't do this, but the military will.
Giving the US a grace period of a month to order as much of the newly restricted rare earths as it wants, doesn't make sense if it's about delaying US military action. We can agree to disagree about this though, and just see what happens next.
I was talking about the rare earth producers, They can’t sell more even if they want to.
In case you don’t know, China has all the refining technologies for heavy rare earth elements.
I think you overestimate Western countries’ ability to build anything. This is the state of the collapsed bridge in Baltimore, 18 months later:
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
It's not a trade war on the world; China can choose whomever to approve exports to and whomever to deny them to. You fell for Trump's lies saying it's against the world because he's a chicken shit looking for backup against a China he's already exhausted all his tricks on.
And just because it starts a month later doesn't mean the US is able to stockpile now. They can't even get enough for normal operations as things are. Ford is already shutting down plants because of rare earth shortages. American negotiators have been trying for weeks to get China to stop restricting rare earth flows to the US. The official language goes into effect 1 month later. It's been practiced against the US for some time already. This policy is just showing America what they've been up against the whole time.
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Trump will certainly try to build it in the US. But I think there's a far bigger chance other countries will fill the vacuum. Any way, if China goes through with this and does not compromise, then it's going to be a rough few years in global trade.I was talking about the rare earth producers, They can’t sell more even if they want to.
In case you don’t know, China has all the refining technologies for heavy rare earth elements.
I think you overestimate Western countries’ ability to build anything. This is the state of the collapsed bridge in Baltimore, 18 months later:
I think a much better example was US invoking Defense Production Act to make simple masks in 2020 and failed even at that.I was talking about the rare earth producers, They can’t sell more even if they want to.
In case you don’t know, China has all the refining technologies for heavy rare earth elements.
I think you overestimate Western countries’ ability to build anything. This is the state of the collapsed bridge in Baltimore, 18 months later:
The fact that Americans collectively memory holed something that happened only 5 years ago speaks volumes too.
Or what could possibly happen in the next few days. Announce that all with China is settled for some vague agreements and score a nice payday for everyone who bought the dip.
China is not removing its export control without extreme concessions from US. The only thing that will maybe satisfy China is completely removal of all export control on China across all sectors. I also expect China demanding not just opposing Taiwan independence, but full blown acceptance that yes Taiwan is part of China full stop and complete stop on all arms exports to Taiwan.
This shows 2 things.
1. The necessity of liberating Taiwan from an extremely aggressive and irrational regime.
2. It didn't matter that Taiwan acted illegally and aggressively. Not a single NATO member nor Warsaw Pact member invoked collective defense even though they had the right to. The merchants simply left and didn't risk it. Conflict alone chokes trade.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Nah, nothing there is worth it.
American export controls only help China's indigenization drive. Export controls are a noose if your people are stupid and unable to innovate like Trump's America but they're a catalyst if your people are smart like in China.
Concessions on Taiwan? LOL That's only words that can change anytime. The Taiwan issue will be resolved when American power is displaced in Asia; it will resolve itself.
America has nothing to offer for this; if China played this card then it's time to drive the stake into the vampire's heart. This will cause everything in America to hit huge roadblocks and I agree that amongst all the countries in the world that America can buy out, they will eventually figure out a solution to China's rare earths riddle, but the point is that China's technology is in such a state that by the time they do, China will already be far ahead in everything and by then, they can only accept that the West can no longer catch up. Pax Sinica is here. It's the end game.