Miscellaneous News

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
There are still too many of Chinese who depend on trades with the US.

In 2024, exports alone from China to the US were worth more than 400 billion dollars if I remember it correctly. In that year, the nominal GDP per capita was 13000 USD, more or less. Even assuming that workers making goods for the American market had higher productivity than other sectors, there will be tens of millions of Chinese workers and their families affected if all this 400 billion dollar market is closed off to them.

Not to mention that imports from the US, if cut off, can also hurt the average Chinese.

This is why China keeps saying that there is no winner in trade wars. What's different in 2025 compared to in 2017 is that China now can drag the US by the balls to the negations.
But if those exports were, China wouldn't actually lose 400 billion; if they lower prices, more bidders can afford those goods, so they'll sell at a lower price point. And at a lower volume, there will still be US buyers that just eat the higher price.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Because only China can cause existential threat level to Vietnamese culture, US can only cause government threat level. Vietnamese indeed is mainly a group of 百越 people, escape from South China and local people to avoid to sinicize completely and fight for it more than 1000 years, to compare with 30 years to resistance against America is too short. Not the same level at all. Of course our history textbook make very clear about this.
So you believe that true coexistence between China and Vietnam is impossible and Vietnam needs to actively push China away?
 
After all, Vietnam was continually ruled by China for nearly a thousand years, and there's hardly any genetic difference between Northern Vietnamese people and people from Guangdong and Guangxi.
The populations of Guandong and Guangxi are genetically distinguishable from the rest of Han Chinese though. These were lands belonging to the Baiyue people, a South East Asian group while Han Chinese is a North East Asian group. These lands came under Chinese control during Han dynasty southward expansion.
 

Proteus

New Member
Registered Member
So you believe that true coexistence between China and Vietnam is impossible and Vietnam needs to actively push China away?
Of course possible, the coxistence has been keep for more than 1000 years, just the fear to be asimilate too much and the territory dispute + the West propaganda too strong, the Vietnamese opinion about China is still largely negative, the Vietnamese leader is different story, they are not dump as civilian that consume propaganda too much. Just want keep balance relationship China, not too far but of course not too close because of the assimilation fear. The relationship between China and Vietnam quite similar to Russia and Ukraine, just hope color revolution don't happen in Vietnam and extremists don't hold the power.
 
Last edited:
I already said that tens of millions Chinese would be affected and how I estimated it. Whether or not this many is "too many" is up to everyone's own standards.

I would say as many as the social security system can afford. A couple of millions at the most would be my wild guess.
Your calculations of dividing export value by GDP per capita unfortunately does not approximate the number of Chinese that will be impacted. You are not accounting for the cost of inputs, particularly raw materials. Essentially you are assuming that if an export oriented factory closes down, then all of its upstream suppliers will have to close down as well, which does not match with reality.

Let me go back to the factory I brought up earlier in my example. With annual exports to the US of Y600M ($82M), your calculations would imply that 6370 people would be impacted if that factory had to shut down. In reality, the factory employs about 800 employees total. Out of the $82M in export sales, the factory pays for about $47M for inputs. Out of those inputs, 72% are price-inelastic goods that would be sold at that price regardless of whether or not this particular factory purchases them. In fact, 45% of the inputs are actually imported - so in the case of the factory closing down, these goods would simply no longer need to be imported. Of course, these numbers can deviate significantly based on the particular goods produced, but should still suffice to illustrate how your calculation would grossly overestimate the number of Chinese impacted.

Rather than looking at the gross export value, you need to consider the actual value-add contributed by Chinese factories.

You are right about selling to other markets. I stated it later too in another post by saying "They need the time to find other markets to replace the US."
For many goods, there are already foreign bidders lined up. There would not be much time needed at all. In many cases US buyers are offering only 2.5-5% higher prices than the next highest (non-US) bidder.
 
Last edited:

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
The Indian fallout from the rafale downing continues

In Chinese it's called 恼羞成怒, embarrassment leading to anger

They are trying to muddy the waters by spamming articles about India's "success". Claiming they shot down multiple Pakistani jets, and claiming Chinese AD failed to protect Pakistani airbases. The entire western internet reeks of indian nationalists these couple days

India's dreams of regional domination of their rivals have been shattered, even after so many billions spent importing the best of the west
India cannot dominate that region with French fighters and three decades old AWACS and almost zero trust as it is Leftist (I doubt Russia share updates with India). this stupidity is not just limited to India. Japan a country which only become wealthy in previous cold war due to Arabs and Jews and since than it behaves like Europhile country thats why Japan will be Royally shafted in this new cold war.
Trump may want to India to cancel all the deals with France and only buy American weopons and to enforce such authority Trump will have full support of Arabs. Arabs have creates specific clip for this purpose where Trump language of trade is used bringing peace between India and Pakistan. obviously its threat to both of them to fall in line.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Trump calls for deeper India-Pakistan engagement, hails US role in ceasefire at Riyadh forum


there is another more important angle from Arab perspective. if India and Pakistan keep fighting like this there social structure will essentially get destroyed and than more sinster plans will get in motion. which is the real reason for North South Corridor.
you can look at effective bombardment of Israeli in Syria that brought government of Saudi liking. Houthis are only saved because Saudis dont want to destroy Oman.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
New projects in the field of development of the international transport corridor "North-South" will be presented at KazanForum 2025
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
What the fuck are you talking about? If you did not even read my this post, you should not have jumped in to comment.
What the fuck are you talking about? I read that post and responded to that point-to-point for why your analysis is wrong. Your numbers are irrelevent and cause a major misjudgement. We're past that.

I gave you the relevent numbers, which are GDP growth and export growth. Chinese rising domestic consumption is another relevant and positive number:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The economic health of the US has nothing to do with how many Chinese people will be affected if the tariff war did not come to a truce now. The consequences of $400 billion export dropping to zero in a month would be drastically different than it dropping to zero in, say, a year.
OK, since you did not understand my rebuttal, I will repeat the relevent sections:

"That number should be considered extra money. There are 2 ways to make that number smaller: 1 is for the US to buy less and the other is for us to refuse to sell as much as they want to buy. Neither is going to happen in good business. Our export numbers to the US can be high, but it's most important to make all other numbers from trade with other partners to domestic consumption, higher."

"The only way to make that untrue is to cut off trade relations. These companies didn't get the memo and move to diversify their clients when times were good so now they need to do it in a hurry or die out. They will never do it as long as the times are good so you can't be hung up about them. They were given years from Trump's first trade war to now to rely less on the US. If they haven't done it yet, it's not about time; it's about reason and will."

"Some people don't move until the wolf is knocking at the door. And some of them don't have to, because it's a totally legitimate point to make money while the oppertunity is there for it to be made. But they should have been keeping a fat savings account to help them with the transition when they are forced to make it; the writing was on the wall that selling to the US was a gig, not a career."
Well in China even the drug addicted ones get a second chance for new life.
Of course. They go to drug rehabilitation centers and their new life is nothing like their old life. You've never heard of a drug rehab center giving people drugs, telling them they can quit cocaine slowly over 5 years, have you? This is the same. Their new life is exporting to other markets now. The American drug is the dead old life.
 
Last edited:

Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
I use the term Asia Pacific (APAC) when referring to the Asia. Banks do this. Sports do this. Its used a lot when you want to see the Asian part of something.

But if you work for US think tanks or are involved in that area, you may have noticed they are trying to push the phrase "Indo Pacific" to replace APAC. I personally haven't seen it used much but again it depends where you are.

As you can see already, this term is supposed to subtly move the center to India and take away APAC where we see China being the center. The US is always playing this slimey ass games trying to manipulate words without telling you. No wonder so many Indians shill for this term .The emphasis on the neologism “Indo Pacific,” launched by Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and enthusiastically endorsed by President Donald Trump, appeared to be new, despite its interesting though distant past.

Some people are not aware of this so I'm letting you guys know. Because you will see the west try to use this term more.

But terms don't mean crap. Build back better, blue dot network, QUAD etc. All these terms went nowhere. The world isn't determined by the west anymore.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

GulfLander

Major
Registered Member
An urgent search is underway for two crew members reported missing after a Japanese air force training aircraft crashed following takeoff.

The T-4 training jet, belonging to the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), lost contact just two minutes after departing from Komaki Air Base in Aichi prefecture, according to Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Top