The point was that if you assumed pre-COVID trends in the US and China and looked at where US GDP and China's GDP were today, the US GDP grew along its pre-COVID trend to 2023 even with higher inflation & interest rates but China's GDP is 7% lower than its pre-COVID trend with lower inflation and lower real interest rates and lower growth rates compared to the pre-COVID trendline even after the lockdowns. This points to the suggestion that COVID induced permanent scarring (hysteresis) in China's economy but not the United States. The world is not in a recession. Too much demand leading to higher rates and inflation is the opposite of a recession
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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China was growing 6% in 2018-2019. They growing closer in hasher environment than most of the world because they depend more on exports, but is the same trend in the US and worldwide The "recovery" is being tamper by the world economic environment.
At the end I would recommend keeping an eye on inflation because if it comes back, is over. High interest rates, high inflation and low growth. Is over.
In case this hasn't been shared before:
A Sikh guy who runs or works at a store in the US dishes out justice to a looter, the Indian way.
I won't be surprised if the US police arrests the Sikh guy instead of the looter. Such is the justice system there. Looting is fine. But whooping someone's ass with a Lathi? I'm not so sure that American law is cool with that.
A Sikh guy who runs or works at a store in the US dishes out justice to a looter, the Indian way.
I won't be surprised if the US police arrests the Sikh guy instead of the looter. Such is the justice system there. Looting is fine. But whooping someone's ass with a Lathi? I'm not so sure that American law is cool with that.
Under China's 13th FYP, the GDP growth rate was expected to be average 6.5% but due to pandemic in 2020 the actual GDP growth average is 5.8%. Without 2020, the growth rate is 6.6% which just barely above the growth target.
Under China's 14th FYP, the Chinese government doesn't have a guidance of growth but the expectation is between 5% to 5.5%. China would focus on quality of growth as the government is trying to rein in bubble in property sector. So using per-pandemic growth rate for calculation is just inaccurate.
More importantly, I just don't understand why you expect China's GDP growth to continue to grow at the same pace. As all major developing countries have experienced, GDP growth rate tends to decelerate after reaching certain threshold. China's GDP per capita at $12,840 is approaching high income economy which the world bank sets at $13,845. Therefore, it is more realistic to use 5% to 5.5% average for 2021-2025 to calculate if China met its target or not. Beside, it is the property sector that is the biggest drag to the economy. COVID actually isn't that big a factor.
Yes and 5.5% is below 6%. China is growing below the pre-COVID trend
China's exports as a % of GDP is one of the lowest in the G20 and COVID caused an export boom in China. The trend in the US is that GDP is at levels implied by 2018-2019 growth. The trend in China is that GDP is at levels 7% below those implied by 2018-2019 growth.
High rates have been with the US economy for 1.5 years now and even with that, even residential single-family housing is growing as a sector. The US economy, for whatever reason (corporate/houshold borrowings at fixed rates (mortgages and corporate bonds) in 2020, increase in shares of , excess savings, a booming jobs market, etc) seems completely insensitive to interest rates and inflation is solved. The CPI uses as its housing/rents estimate, the average of all rents paid (instead of new rents) so it includes leases signed months ago. Now, new rents are declining and rents are 35% of the CPI. Inflation is over as a problem. Transitory supply issues resolved and rents went down because of rate hikes.
Has he who who must not be named, and the person with many names and aliases been resurrected to grace us with yet another nuggets of wisdom about China's doomed economic prospects?
It's the best baseline there is of a unknowable other potential future.
GDP growth and GDPPC are negatively correlated but said correlation is neither strong or universal (see US outperformance of the EU and Japan with substantially higher per capita GDP). RE and COVID shocks were timed at the same time (perhaps intentionally to give political cover for the RE adjustments) but regardless, that you have *substantially* slower growth after COVID became a thing isn't deniable but the US did not have substantially lower growth (it had the same growth rate). Thus the MSM party about the growth rates
this is old news, the Police did briefly contemplated looking into assault charges but they drop that idea since it would be more embarassment for california
India's condition for new members to join BRICS: "Support my bid to become the 6th permanent member in the UNSC with Veto power. Make me a Superpowah in the UN!". Like a gangster asking for support from a new member for his bid to become the next Underboss.
I think aspiring BRICS countries should just say yes to India, join the BRICS, and then forget all about it after. If anything, China could still Veto India's ascension into the UNSC permanent seat, citing India as an unprofessional warmongering idiot threat. What is India gonna do then? Kick out the new members of BRICS? Its gonna need votes from the other founding members too, especially China and Russia. What is India gonna do then? Sulk? Sabotage? Or leave BRICS? Good luck!