Pre-COVID
2018: 6.7%
2019: 6.0%
Average: 6.35%
Post-COVID
2021: 8.7%
2022: 3%
Average: 5.85% (and this doesn't take into account 2020 where growth was at 2.2%) so China is ~7% below its pre-COVID trend. That was this picture from Yicai
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- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
2018: 6.7%
2019: 6.0%
Average: 6.35%
Post-COVID
2021: 8.7%
2022: 3%
Average: 5.85% (and this doesn't take into account 2020 where growth was at 2.2%) so China is ~7% below its pre-COVID trend. That was this picture from Yicai
You know that China was in in and out of lockdowns until December 2022? "post-Covid" is 2023 and on
Being in and out of lockdowns was a policy choice for China; it wasn't out of necessity.
Regardless, even the post-COVID 2023 has substantially slower than the 2018-2019 levels even after the lockdowns are lifting, suggesting long-run permanent scarring to the economy (if there wasn't permanent scarring, there should've been massive increases in growth once the lockdowns were lifted; those weren't there)
No necessary, I think the biggest deal is to navigate the post-inflationary, recessionary, high interest rate world that we are living now, which is probably more dangerous than pandemic.
But even with the COVID pandemic lockdowns they manage to archive almost 6% on average in GDP, which still pretty impressive to be honest.
There was a massive increase in growth as lockdown where lifted almost 20%, but that is just a blip in the data.
China's 1H23 growth rate over 1H22 was 5.5%, which is below the rate in 2018 and 2019
To be fair 2022 H1 was the recovery from a massive lockdown, so the data would be skew, but is not far away from the 6% of 18 -19
That's the entire point. If even during a recovery from a massive lockdown (where you'd expect growth to be unsustainably high for a few quarters), you have a growth rate that's lower than normal pre-COVID times, then what that shows is that COVID massively scarred the economy and sent it on a permanently lower growth trajectory
That would be in a normal no recessionary world, with normal or low inflation, normal interest rates and with most countries not in the breaking economic point. The archive in 2023 very high growth closer to the pre-pandemic levels given the bad economic environment that the world is in.