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Overbom

Brigadier
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Air Force maverick who warned of war with China sticks to his guns​

Gen. Michael A. Minihan, lauded by hawks in Congress, has disturbed some in the Pentagon with his fiery prognostications of a looming conflict
“Lethality matters most!” he told the crowd. “When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better! Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger.”
One senior U.S. defense official said that he was incredulous upon learning about the memo and wondered whether Beijing would see it as escalatory.
 
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measuredingabens

Junior Member
Registered Member

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Bro India need attention and China ignoring her is the reason for her tantrums, you know the Chinese mindset, we don't indulge in useless debates and arguments.

You know what brother ansy1968, your comments about useless debates and arguments, made me think about something else.

It was that Gallium export restriction. I agree with what tphuang wrote in the semiconductor thread, that it could be potentially really big deal, and as of now it seems unclear.

This is what I was thinking.

First of all, the other main point I want to deal with and get out of the way, is that that Gallium export restriction, is not a tit for tat move. I punch you and you punch me back, that is not what is going on here.

What is going on here, is a much bigger play, but which we do not know what that bigger play is. The Gallium export restriction could be a play in of itself, that it will escalate to harm Western interests, and they probably throw in a few others export bans as well.

The Gallium export restriction could be a play in concert with a much boarder play. Sort of like an attack on the front, in all directions.

In the news, the American IC industry lobbying hard to make Biden people refrain from further sanctions. Americans opposing Americans. Then there is this news of the Gallium restrictions, another part on the front. Then the news of Huawei making a comeback in the phones. The CCP knew about the Huawei plans for sure.

And we all know, a Huawei comeback in the phones, is a blatant attack on the competence of the United States. So if the Huawei attack is coming, and American chip executives happen to be lobbying for no more sanctions, might as well throw the Gallium restrictions out there too. Now all of this, will converge at once towards the front.

The problem for the Biden people, is they do not have a direct answer for any of this. They shot their wad too soon with the tech war, and continue to shoot blanks.

Now it seems they have to attack with blanks.

These next few months will be interesting, because the Chinese, knowing them, they got some more surprises.

That is how you attack, you want the element of surprise.

Huawei phones are coming to the 5G world. Something else is going to happen. (ie Huawei comes back, American knee jerk reaction is to do something, China takes opportunity to do surprise.)

If that something does not happen, that the United States does not want to fire blanks, then the United States will be losing ground, and possibly losing allies.

Then to top it all off, that Russia Ukraine war is still going, Western equipment still burning.

Let's see what happens.

:D
 

canonicalsadhu

Junior Member
Registered Member
If the cost is to exclude India (approximately 1/6 of global population) from major organizations than so be it, reality is messy.
This would be reasonable if India was China's only rival. But it's not. US, Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand, 30+ European countries, Japan, South Korea, Phillipines. So it's more like 1/3 of the world's population and 2/3 of the world economy.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
This would be reasonable if India was China's only rival. But it's not. US, Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand, 30+ European countries, Japan, South Korea, Phillipines. So it's more like 1/3 of the world's population and 2/3 of the world economy.
So what do you think is reasonable? Beg people to not be your enemies or drain China dry giving gifts to try stave off their enmity? 1/3 of the world's population and 2/3 of the economy couldn't stop China's rise and they're only getting worse at it every day. China's focus on its own national rejuventation and its forceful answer to all challenges is the only way forward.
 

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
It's actually true, India resents China for ignoring her. Many of us on this forum finds this irrational, but perhaps its more rational than we'd like to admit. See this interesting zhihu answer
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Indians, who worship rocks, Anglo westerners and cows, should try worshipping Chinese people and President Xi- then maybe their prayers would finally be answered.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
You know what brother ansy1968, your comments about useless debates and arguments, made me think about something else.

It was that Gallium export restriction. I agree with what tphuang wrote in the semiconductor thread, that it could be potentially really big deal, and as of now it seems unclear.

This is what I was thinking.

First of all, the other main point I want to deal with and get out of the way, is that that Gallium export restriction, is not a tit for tat move. I punch you and you punch me back, that is not what is going on here.

What is going on here, is a much bigger play, but which we do not know what that bigger play is. The Gallium export restriction could be a play in of itself, that it will escalate to harm Western interests, and they probably throw in a few others export bans as well.

The Gallium export restriction could be a play in concert with a much boarder play. Sort of like an attack on the front, in all directions.

In the news, the American IC industry lobbying hard to make Biden people refrain from further sanctions. Americans opposing Americans. Then there is this news of the Gallium restrictions, another part on the front. Then the news of Huawei making a comeback in the phones. The CCP knew about the Huawei plans for sure.

And we all know, a Huawei comeback in the phones, is a blatant attack on the competence of the United States. So if the Huawei attack is coming, and American chip executives happen to be lobbying for no more sanctions, might as well throw the Gallium restrictions out there too. Now all of this, will converge at once towards the front.

The problem for the Biden people, is they do not have a direct answer for any of this. They shot their wad too soon with the tech war, and continue to shoot blanks.

Now it seems they have to attack with blanks.

These next few months will be interesting, because the Chinese, knowing them, they got some more surprises.

That is how you attack, you want the element of surprise.

Huawei phones are coming to the 5G world. Something else is going to happen. (ie Huawei comes back, American knee jerk reaction is to do something, China takes opportunity to do surprise.)

If that something does not happen, that the United States does not want to fire blanks, then the United States will be losing ground, and possibly losing allies.

Then to top it all off, that Russia Ukraine war is still going, Western equipment still burning.

Let's see what happens.

:D
Bro I recommend you read this article about PLA Huai Hai Campaign, this strategy had been used by PLA in the Korea War were they push back the American and the 1962 war with India. The concept of Chi or Qi were you create a condition that will overwhelm your opponent, very Sun Tzu 'Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win'

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PDF

by GJ Bjorge — Leavenworth Papers are published by the Combat Studies Institute (CSI), US Army Command and. General Staff College (CGSC), Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027. The views ...
282 pages
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
The problem is people keep saying US, Australia, UK, EU, Canada, Japan etc.

In my mind everything is much more simple and (IMO) much closer to truth when I just say American Empire. There you have the center (US), imperial core territory (UK, Canada etc), and vessels which have various degrees of autonomy


The whole process since the war started has consisted of 3 parts actually. Part 1 was, of course, attacking China. Part 2, was the center marshalling its imperial core territories (happened quite quickly and easy).

And part 3, ongoing process, which is proving to be quite difficult and time-consuming, is marshalling its vassals.

Simultaneously to the part 3 happening, the US is also starting harvesting its vassals. After all, as a proper vassal, during war, you must fulfill your duty towards your liege lord by providing economic and military help as requested

I expect the next part of the plan, part 4, is to be consolidation and centralisation (not necessarily territorially) of its territories
 
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