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Strangelove

Colonel
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Biden’s blurry Indo-Pacific economic vision brings few new ideas to benefit Asia​

  • The US president’s visit to Asia holds symbolic importance, but it is unclear what tangible benefits will emerge
  • Details on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework are in short supply, and the plan seems to offer little that Asia’s current bilateral and multilateral deals do not

 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
SDF : Can China prevail in the Taiwan strait?

Media :
SDF is too pessimistic sometimes /s

People laugh, but I think that’s not as remote a possibility as most people might think.

For example, if NATO directly entered the war in Ukraine and started to roll back the Russians, I think China will enter the war as well on Russia’s side much like Korea. Because the alternative is nuclear war, which can escalate to total planetary MAD incredibly quickly. When you have no good options, you choose the one that’s least bad, and fighting NATO in Ukraine is infinitely better than nuclear planetary MAD.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
People laugh, but I think that’s not as remote a possibility as most people might think.

For example, if NATO directly entered the war in Ukraine and started to roll back the Russians, I think China will enter the war as well on Russia’s side much like Korea. Because the alternative is nuclear war, which can escalate to total planetary MAD incredibly quickly. When you have no good options, you choose the one that’s least bad, and fighting NATO in Ukraine is infinitely better than nuclear planetary MAD.
You're right that it might happen, but the most likely scenario is Russia and NATO destroying each other's assets and bombing their territory, and eventually escalating to a nuclear exchange without intervention from third-party, if NATO decides to do a military mobilization within Ukraine. It would likely prompt neutral countries composed of many countries including China to press for negotiations between both sides to deescalate, making joint statements in UN.

For now the war will just continue with NATO and US shipping weapons and slipping in "military trainers/contractors or mercenaries" into the ranks of the Ukrainian army. I think this war will not end even after Ukraine surrenders or a negotiation is reached, the West will just fund a "Ukraine Liberation Army" to terrorize the annexed territory.
 

Kaeshmiri

Junior Member
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I still don't trust the new Pakistan government.
No need to distrust. When it comes to China, there exists unanimous consensus amongst major parties & the military establishment that China is critical to the Nations existence.
Where they differ is the level of engagement with USA. Some want closer ties with both US and China while others want to steer away from American influence.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This thing is going to a dangerous place. Biden nowadays says stup*d things everywhere all the way to calling other presidents with wrong names. But this is serious stuff. The end of ambiguity may trigger extreme reactions from China. I hope I am wrong but we may watch a Ukraine 2 before 2025. China at the gov level probably sees the economy as something that can be built later. The CPC may very well decide Taiwan is inducing too much uncertainty in China's future and that conquering it is the best course. If Biden doesn't walk back from this like it did the previous time China would challenge this soon.

Edit: Turns out they had already done:
I can assure you, it's because of Biden's 8000-year old brain and proclivity for gaffes.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Already walked back but strategic ambiguity no longer exists. Let's not kid ourselves
Strategic ambiguity is about under what conditions the US would intervene in a war over Taiwan, not a refusal to answer if it would intervene.
The idea that in today’s context the US would defend Taiwan isn’t a change to the policy. Strategic ambiguity has been about giving the US greater freedom of action. How US really acts in a crisis depends on multiple things.
 
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