SOUTH KOREA PRESIDENT ELECTION 2022.03.09
The South Korean presidential election is today. A few things: 1. The current president is ineligible for reelection as the Korean constitution forbids it: Single term, five years. 2. Plurality wins. There is no ranked choice or runoff. 3. Korea does not have a Vice President
The Ballot: There are 14 candidates on the ballot, but 2 dropped out of the running and endorsed one of the major candidates. They’re assigned a number according to their party’s seats in the National Assembly. 1-5 hold seats, and parties with no seats are listed alphabetically.
THE PARTIES:

The Democratic Party
big tent/ctr-right~ctr left
172 seats

People Power Party
ctr-right~right wing
106 seats

Justice Party
left wing/social democracy
6 seats

The People’s Party
ctr-right~ctr
3 seats

Basic Income Party
UBI/ctr-left
1 seat
THE POLLS:
Realistically speaking, only
and
have a chance to win. 
and

have only polled in the single digits, and

polls at 0.

, the perennial weirdo, polls around 2%. The rest of the field sometimes breaks 0.2%.
HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
Ever since the transition to democracy, only parties

(big tent/center-right to center-left) and

(center-right to right wing) (and their predecessors) have won.
1987:

1992:

1997:

2002:

2007:

2012:

(impeached)
2017:

current
THE DROPOUT:

is Charles Ahn, who rose in prominence as a tech CEO in the 90s and 00s. He was in coalition as the current president Moon Jae-In in an iteration of party

in ‘14-‘15, but fell out. Last week, he endorsed

. After the election, he is merging his party with

.
THE PROGRESSIVE:

is Sim Sang-Jung, a former labor organizer and 3-term assemblywoman from Justice Party—the only member of the party to represent a district and not from the proportional list. After consistently low polling, she considered suspending her campaign earlier.
THE OPPOSITION:

is
Yoon Suk-Yeol, a career prosecutor who was the chief prosecutor general (2017-9). Although he’s seen as a political newcomer, never been elected, he went after the current Moon Jae-In administration fiercely as prosecutor general, which won him the primary.
THE POPULIST:

is
Lee Jae-Myung, member of President Moon’s Democratic Party. Part of the populist wing of the party, he’s been compared to Bernie Sanders and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. He served as the mayor of Seongnam (12th largest city) and governor of Gyeongi (largest province).
Some key issues
Housing market is hell in Korea right now with home prices increasing by 90% in Seoul since 2017.
️ The Antidiscrimination Law has been in legislative limbo, having been introduced 13 times since 1997 in a country with increasing LGBT visibility.
Feminism has become a lightning rod of a discourse in Korea in the same vein as CRT in America.
Post-COVID economic recovery

Climate change and energy/nuclear policy
affordable education
There are many others, but these are the ones I’m most knowledgeable about.
South Korea is divided into regions: - Capital region: Seoul, Incheon, Gyeongi Province - Yeongnam: Daegu, Busan, Ulsan, N/S Gyeongsang Provinces - Honam: Gwangju, N/S Jeolla Provinces - Hoseo: Sejong, Daejeon, and N/S Chungcheong Provinces - Gangwon Province - Jeju Island
Broadly speaking, this is the regional trend: - Firmly Conservative: Yeongnam - Reliably Conservative: Jeju, Gangwon - Swing: Capital Region, Hoseo - Firmly Liberal: Honam Bc 50% of the Korea lives in Seoul metro, the winner has to win big in the capital & capture Hoseo to win.
Anyway, end of thread. I’m exhausted, but AMA, and I will do my best to explain.
How do the leading candidates attitude differ in geopolitics? I.e. friendly to China, USA, North Korea, etc.?
my guess is that you’ll see more of the same. On the website, he opposes SAAD and wants to reopen tourism and Kaesong and build a North-South Hwy.
He wants to thaw out relationship with China which became strained in 2016 while still being a key U.S. ally.
wants SAAD, push for human rights for our northern brethren through UN and international bodies, normalize relations. Definitely more focus on unification.
But very contrary to what outsiders believe, North Korea isn’t even a top 5 priority for most South Korean voters.
It’s Housing, Employment, Affordable Education, Nuclear Energy, and Crime that seems to be topics that come up over and over again.
The OP is Tony Choi is a seasoned digital creative with a decade of experience based in New York City.
His website: