Going forward, we can see that batteries are driving American natgas peakers out of business.
That price dynamic is even more pronounced in China, given higher natgas prices and lower battery costs in China. So I don't expect to see any natgas peakers built in the future.
What type of battery is the current go-to standard for domestic BESS projects in China?
What does CAPEX per MW of storage capacity look like?
The TAR has less than 4 million people. 300 TWh of electricity would be enough for Taiwan (24 Mn) or the UK (68 Mn) for example.
So I would expect the TAR to be a huge net exporter of electricity, once the hydro plants are ready.
Did not know that the population of Tibet Autonomous Region is only ~3.6 million. Ran some very, very rough numbers after a bottle of Malbec at dinner, so
not liable for inaccuracies . . .
It appears — in no small part due to 西藏's relatively sparse population and by extension relatively limited GDP — that this hydropower project could very
plausibly surge the region's annual economic output by a double digit percentage through exporting electricity to other provinces.
Unsurprising once you consider that 2023 regional GDP was a paltry ~$32 billion USD, which is a fraction of this project's CAPEX of $139+ billion USD (one trillion plus RMB).
Don't need to know how to build discounted cash flows to recognize what a
reasonable annual return for an investment this momentous needs to look like.
Given how much electricity demand will come from AI data centers, it makes zero sense to sell any electricity to India. None. This will be sent east into China.
Electricity exports to other provinces should net a significant sum representing a percentage of regional GDP hitting the teens.
Not at all a bad way to further economically integrate 西藏 with the rest of the nation. A very humane, if not generous strategy for thoroughly deterring separatism.