Miscellaneous News

We're in fog of war right now, everything is suspect.
here's what I found in a well-known Russian blog
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(fun in the discussion below):
0_13d3d2b_1c7f08c7_XL.png

0_13d3d2f_72e9234f_XL.png

0_13d3d2e_f5b903a0_XL.png

0_13d3d2d_152bf976_XL.png

0_13d3d31_dbdb3ed0_XL.png


in short, the pictures purport to show 44 targets have been hit
 
here's the background:
Today at 7:57 AM
hey TE I think you know I prefer Tactics over Strategy :)
so I looked at the conflicting claims, posted Yesterday at 10:54 PM

the Kremlin said about half of TLAMs had missed (details in Yesterday at 6:26 PM)

while in the context of the USNI News (link inside Yesterday at 10:54 PM) apparently only that airbase was targeted:
“We developed a proportional response option for the president, which included military response option targets. And what I mean by that are those that are encircled (on initial damage assessment images) – so a military response target would be hardened aircraft shelters, aircraft, fuel that would go into the aircraft, munitions that go into the aircraft, anything that would be a part of a military operation was part of the target area.”

and (right the next point in that article):
“Between the two of them (Ross and Porter), they launched this salvo of 59 missiles. And we have, with positive confirmation, that each one of those missiles hit the target.”

it seems to me (but I slept until now and new info might become available in the meantime) the Kremlin story and the Pentagon story can't be both true at the same time, and I'm curious which story is 'for domestic consumption only'
and now, with the "Bolognese" sauce slowly simmering, I did the mapping exercise using:
  1. the view from
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    which (if true!) would correspond to Pk of less than 0.5 of a TLAM involved in the recent attack;
    3uSDI.jpg
  2. the view from
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    which (if true!) would correspond to Pk of more than 0.8 of a TLAM involved in the recent attack;
    rjhLJ.png
  3. the reference
    I4Mp.jpg
I first approximately aligned #2 and #3, then added to #2 the "hits" marked in #1 (if they're in pretty much the same spot, I marked them with S in red; there're four "hits" shown only in #1, and not in #2, and these are marked by S! in red), and rotated #2 back:
uDnZi.jpg


now need to go check the kitchen ...

... in short, #1 doesn't show anything where #2 puts
  • "10 X Ammunition storage" close to bottom-left corner in the map right above, and
  • "4 X Aircraft Shelters" close to the top-right corner ...
and you can make whatever conclusion you will
 
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in addition to what's in
Today at 12:32 PM

...
  1. the view from
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    which (if true!) would correspond to Pk of less than 0.5 of a TLAM involved in the recent attack;...
  2. the view from
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    which (if true!) would correspond to Pk of more than 0.8 of a TLAM involved in the recent attack; ...
  3. the reference
    I4Mp.jpg
...
now found
#4, which is the view from AirForceMag
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and should be "clickable":
zE214.jpg

or you can try (LOL does anyone care? does everybody just want to see his (or her :) side "winning"?)
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and approximately aligned #4 to:
... to get:
C7yDp.jpg


so, as compared to #2:
  • #1 doesn't show "hits" in "bottom-left" and "top-right" corners, and
  • #4 doesn't show "hits" in "bottom-left" corner
while in either #1, #2, #4 "hits" might be made up and/or real hits "forgotten", this:
is the bottom line ... or not?
We're in fog of war right now, everything is suspect.
 
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with the description in the posts above, all three together (yeah it looks awful):
Av1yQ.png

you may read
Pentagon Says All 59 Tomahawks Hit Syrian Targets
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"Speaking to the media at the Pentagon, two officials involved in the mission who declined to be named said the late-night naval strike was executed with 100% accuracy. “We’re very positive that 59 missiles hit,” they said.

Their remarks and photographic evidence appear to debunk claims by the Russian Ministry of Defense that just 23 of the 59 cruise missiles reached the base and only destroyed six MiG-23s in a repair hangar and radar site. “The combat effectiveness of the massive American missile strike on the Syrian airbase is extremely low,” the Russian ministry claims."
 
Yesterday at 9:39 PM
with the description in the posts above, all three together (yeah it looks awful):
Av1yQ.png

...
... and I also watched several videos, and it seems to me the're shelters of different thickness:

  1. barGW.jpg
    comes from the earlier vid
    from the day before yesterday; and
  2. 6SbTH.jpg
    comes from the recent vid (apparently Russian prime-time TV-news yesterday, but I watched it through
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    )

so at this special occasion I post my conjecture: the TLAMs were warning shots
 
it's on top of Breaking News at gazeta.ru right now (
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):
Turkey says Russia must stop insisting on Assad's leadership in Syria
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Turkey remains committed to a ceasefire in Syria, but Russia must stop insisting that Bashar al-Assad should remain as leader of the country, Ankara's foreign minister said on Sunday.

Mevlut Cavusoglu, in live comments on state broadcaster TRT Haber, also said that he told his Russian counterpart that Moscow did not take the necessary steps in the face of breaches in the Syrian ceasefire.
 

delft

Brigadier
Two points:

I have seen nothing published by US government purporting to be evidence of Syrian involvement in delivering poison gas.

Russia doesn't insist on Assad remaining president of Syria. It says it is a matter for the Syrians. Apparently free and fair elections are not good enough for Turkey.
 
Today at 9:26 AM
...
6SbTH.jpg
comes from the recent vid (apparently Russian prime-time TV-news yesterday, but I watched it through
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)...
... and now I watched that vid again, realized the intact shelters were in the area (OK it's unsurprising in a hindsight, you may even ridicule me LOL) which is now schematically marked in the blue ellipses:
bpegu.jpg

in like compilation of three maps from Yesterday at 9:39 PM
with the description in the posts above, all three together (yeah it looks awful):
Av1yQ.png

...
I mean all three sources (which otherwise disagree on the number of hits!) show one part of the base hasn't been attacked, and the video
  • confirms one part of the base hasn't been attacked, which is the part the maps show hasn't been attacked;
  • shows pretty soon after the attack flying operations were resumed using this part of the base
EDIT
there's a Czech "adage" like (difficult to explain :)
There Is No Logic In Soccer

... perhaps it applies here
 
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Zool

Junior Member
Guys, lets try to keep the 'Breaking & World News! III NO DISCUSSION!!' thread for Breaking News. We've got last weeks attacks in Syria being covered in the:
ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics) thread.

Multiple terrorist attacks took place in Egypt today:
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Isis claims assault on Coptic churches in Alexandria and Tanta, which lead the country's President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi to call for a three-month state of emergency
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4 hours ago

Suicide bombers struck hours apart at two Coptic churches in northern
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, killing at least 44 people and turning Palm Sunday services into scenes of horror and outrage at the government that led the president to call for a three-month state of emergency.

The two attacks were
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. The first took place in the Saint George church in the Nile Delta town of Tanta, north of Cairo, killing 27 and wounding at least 78, the Ministry of Health said.

Later, an explosion hit Saint Mark's Cathedral in the coastal city of Alexandria, the historic seat of Christendom in Egypt, killing at least 17 and wounding 48 just after Pope Tawadros II finished services.

His aides later told local media he had escaped unharmed. "These acts will not harm the unity and cohesion of the people," Mr Tawadros said later, according to state media.

Egypt's Interior Ministry said a suicide bomber tried to storm the entrance before being stopped in police. The ministry said three policemen were among those killed in the attack.

tanta-church-bombing2.jpg

Security personnel investigate the scene of a bomb explosion inside Mar Girgis church inTanta (EPA)

Egypt's President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi condemned the attacks and summoned the National Defence Council to an urgent session.

"The attack...will only harden the determination [of the Egyptian people] to move forward on their trajectory to realise security, stability and comprehensive development," he said in a statement.

Later, he called for a three-month state of emergency. According to Egypt's constitution, parliament must vote in favor of such a declaration — a virtual certainty since it is packed with supporters of the president. It cannot exceed six months without a referendum to extend it.

The army chief-turned-president also dispatched elite troops across the country to protect key installations and accused unidentified countries of fuelling instability, saying that “Egyptians have foiled plots and efforts by countries and fascist, terrorist organisations that tried to control Egypt.”

In a claim via its news agency Amaq Isis said: "A group that belongs to Islamic State carried out the two attacks on the churches in the cities of Tanta and Alexandria".

The group recently warned it would step up attacks on Egypt's Christians - the jihadis warned in the aftermath of the two bombings, which they claimed were carried out using suicide vests - that further attacks would take place.

It was the latest in a series of assaults on Egypt's Christian minority, which makes up around 10 percent of the population and has been repeatedly targeted by Islamic extremists.

Video footage and images reportedly taken from inside the church in Tanta show a large number of people gathered around what appear to be lifeless, bloody bodies covered with papers.

Pictures from scene of church attack in
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— Adel El-Adawy (@adeladawy)
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Eyewitnesses to the first blast described a scene of carnage to Reuters.

"There was a huge explosion in the hall. Fire and smoke filled the room and the injuries were extremely severe. I saw the intestines of those injured and legs severed entirely from their bodies," Vivian Fareeg said.

Grand Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, head of Egypt's Al-Azhar — the leading centre of learning in Sunni Islam — condemned the attack, calling it a "despicable terrorist bombing that targeted the lives of innocents".

Pope Francis decried the deadly attack, which took place just weeks before his planned visit to Cairo.

The pontiff expressed his ''deep condolences to my brother, Pope Tawadros II, the Coptic church and all of the dear Egyptian nation," and said he was praying for the dead and wounded in the attack. Word of the bombing came as Francis himself was marking Palm Sunday in St. Peter's Square.

He asked God ''to convert the hearts of those who spread terror, violence and death, and also the hearts of those who make, and traffic in, weapons."

The pope's remarks on the attack were handed to him on a piece of paper as he marked Palm Sunday in St Peter's Square.

So sad to hear of the terrorist attack in Egypt. U.S. strongly condemns. I have great...

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
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...confidence that President Al Sisi will handle situation properly.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)
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President Donald Trump tweeted his condemnation of the attacks. "So sad to hear of the terrorist attack in Egypt. U.S. strongly condemns. I have great confidence that President Al Sisi will handle situation properly."

UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said: “I am saddened and appalled by these attacks in Egypt, and strongly condemn them. My thoughts are with the Egyptian people and particularly those directly affected by these terrible acts. I offer my condolences to those grieving for lost friends and relatives, and those suffering from injuries.

“The UK continues to stand with Egypt against terrorism. These attacks only strengthen our determination to work together with the Egyptian government and people against this shared threat.”

tanta-church-bombing.jpg

Relatives and onlookers gather outside the church MarGirgisthe bomb attack (AP Photo/AhmedHatem)

Egypt has struggled to combat a wave of Islamic militancy since the 2013 military overthrow of elected Islamist president Mohamed Morsi.

A local Isis affiliate group claimed a suicide bombing at a church in Cairo in December that killed around 30 people, mostly women, as well as a string of killings in the restive Sinai Peninsula that caused hundreds of Christians to flee to safer areas of the country.

The Sinai-based Isis affiliate has mainly attacked police and soldiers, but has also claimed bombings that killed civilians, including the downing of a Russian passenger plane over the Sinai in 2015, which killed all 224 people on board and devastated Egypt's tourism industry.
 
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