Graham’s ‘bone crushing’ Russia sanctions bill could freeze US trade with the world’s largest economies
Sen. Lindsey Graham has pledged that his expansive sanctions bill would be “bone crushing” for the Russian economy.
But if enacted, the South Carolina Republican’s proposal to impose 500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy would effectively cut the U.S. off from some of the world’s largest economies — including allies in Europe.
“A 500 percent tariff is essentially a hard decoupling,” said Kevin Book, managing director of Clear View Energy Partners, an energy research firm.
Graham appeared to acknowledge as much on Wednesday, when he proposed a broad carve-out for countries that provide aid to Ukraine.
This exemption would spare the European Union, which continues to import almost 20 percent of its gas from Russia.
But experts remain skeptical that the sky-high tariffs proposed in the Sanctioning Russia Act are in any way feasible.
India and China buy roughly 70 percent of Russian energy exports, but several other countries that buy any oil, gas or uranium from Moscow — and aren’t included in the carve-out — could also be exposed to tariffs under the bill.
The United States, which is still reliant on imports of enriched uranium from Russia to fuel its nuclear reactors, could also run afoul of the bill.
Edward Fishman, a senior researcher with the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said countries in the crosshairs of the bill would struggle to halt their imports of Russian energy overnight.
Tariffs of 500 percent on imports of goods made in China would send prices soaring, disrupt supply chains and could drive up U.S. unemployment to recessionary levels.
Most likely, it would lead to a screeching halt in U.S. trade with China.
“It would hurt Americans quite a bit,” Fishman said.
The legislation’s goal, co-sponsored by Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), is to starve Russia’s war economy, which continues to earn hundreds of billions of dollars from energy exports. There is widespread support for the overall objective, with 82 senators signing on to Graham’s bill so far, and growing support for a companion bill in the House.
The bill is likely to change significantly as it moves through Congress and in consultations with the Trump administration, said Matt Zweig, senior policy director of FDD Action, a nonprofit advocacy organization affiliated with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
It may also take a long time. “With sanctions legislation, you’re also normally dealing with iterative processes where you would want to go through every nook and cranny,” Zweig said.
Still, the widespread bipartisan support for the legislation suggests there is a high degree of support among lawmakers for tougher action on Russia.
“What Congress may be doing is pressuring the executive branch to act,” said Adam Smith, a partner at the law firm Gibson Dunn.
“There is a sense in the Senate that more sanctions on Russia need to be imposed, or ought to be imposed,” added Smith, who was a senior adviser to the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control during the Obama administration.
Graham, the bill’s most vocal Republican advocate, said as much in a meeting with reporters in Paris over the weekend, where he described the bill as “one of the most draconian sanctions bills ever written.”
“The Senate is pissed that Russia is playing a game at our expense and the world’s expense. And we are willing to do something we haven’t been willing to do before — and that is go after people that have been helping Putin,” Graham said.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, dismissed concerns that the bill is too harsh.
“We need to make Putin understand he has to stop screwing around and come to the table. But we also need to follow it up and make clear we will be tough,” she said.
Not everyone agrees. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who has long been skeptical about the effectiveness of sanctions to change the behavior of U.S. adversaries, bashed the bill on Monday as “literally the most ill-conceived bill I’ve ever seen in Washington,” he said. “It would be a worldwide embargo on 36 countries.”
Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine have made little progress on peace talks. Officials from both countries met in Istanbul on Monday and agreed to a further prisoner swap, but failed to achieve any major breakthroughs.
Graham and Blumenthal visited Ukraine, France and Germany during last week’s congressional recess, where they discussed the sanctions bill, as well as efforts to push Russia to the negotiating table.
The proposal has been welcomed by European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, who met with Graham in Berlin on Monday.
“Pressure works, as the Kremlin understands nothing else,” Von der Leyen said in a statement. “These steps, taken together with U.S. measures, would sharply increase the joint impact of our sanctions.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated Monday that the chamber could take up the legislation later this month. Republican senators have said they would like to secure the approval of the White House before moving forward.
The proposed use of blanket tariffs to target countries that continue to do business with Russia’s energy sector is novel and appears to be pitched to Trump’s interests.
On Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump viewed sanctions as “a tool in his toolbox,” but declined to comment about his position on the bill.
Trump appeared to be inching closer toward supporting the bill in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday, which linked to an op-ed in The Washington Post supporting the legislation.
Speaking in the Oval Office on Thursday, Trump indicated he wanted lawmakers to secure his approval before moving forward with the bill. “They’re waiting for me to decide on what to do,” he said, describing the legislation as a “harsh bill.”
The president has liberally wielded tariffs to advance his foreign policy agenda, but his implementation has been spotty. Wall Street has even adopted a trading strategy referencing Trump’s capriciousness called TACO, which stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
Tariffs of 145 percent on China, imposed in April, lasted a month before being dramatically scaled back to make way for trade talks, which have so far failed to secure a breakthrough.
As it stands, the bill includes some levers that Trump could pull to forestall the tariffs, requiring the president to make a formal determination that Russia is refusing to negotiate or has violated any future peace agreement.
impose 500 percent tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy
This exemption would spare the European Union, which continues to import almost 20 percent of its gas from Russia.
Rules for thee but not for me. It will totally go down well with all the non-US vassals when energy prices spikes and the global economy turns into a depression. While the US and their vassals have given themselves exemptions.
