With the current controls, it’s only a matter of time before someone, somewhere will find a solution, since they don’t have a choice.
The existing refining technology and efficiency may not be replicable anytime soon but never say never when it comes to new and novel ways of handling the refining process, tho it will still be years away from commercial viability and scale.
If China wants to continue the ‘if you don’t want to sell me shit, then you are not making the shit’ strat, then it has to leverage the current period of reliance into something more permanent.
With the current controls, it’s only a matter of time before someone, somewhere will find a solution, since they don’t have a choice.