Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades later.

pla101prc

Senior Member
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

a lot of people on this forum needs to get rid of the mindset that "western culture is made for innovation and all that good stuff and everything else defies that". maybe you can start by reading edward said's "orientalism".

like i said the CCP has variety of policies in place to attract talented individuals. if talent has no place in China, how did they come up with their own military industry? i guess they must have copied it all from Russia. China is a lot bigger than that small chunk you see.

ps. one more thing about those who wanna try to "observe" China, dont take the top leaders as the "conservatives" they are prolly among the biggest "progressives" that exists in the CCP.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

If you think I am BS, take a look at Tsien Hsue-shen and Taiwan scientist Lee who both expelled from their work just because of their races. Their accusation of both spying for China is total groundless.

I bet more or less, few of these young scientist will encounter such thing of discrimination. This will make them more determine to come back to China and make her stronger.

No I don't think you are BSing at all. The same thing happens in the West as well. I am a scientist and fully aware of all the things you mentioned.

I believe it is the reverse of what u think....

Many westerner simply don't trust asian scientist. Simpily put it , is discrimination. Letting all these young bright Chinese scientist study overseas is good thing.

Sadly, it's a two-way street in this matter. Asians are not trusted in the West because, to Westerners, we somehow are always loyal to our native land although we are no more loyal to our native land than any other nationalities. When we go back to China, our experience with the West makes the Chinese govn't, especially the anti-West faction, distrust us.

Letting all these young bright Chinese scientist study overseas is good thing.

I never say it's not a good thing. Of course it is a good thing. everybody thinks so, even the Westerners. For the Chinese govn't, the side effect is that these scholars not only get education and experience in their professional fields, but also Western way of living and thinking. Some of those thinking is definitely not in-line with the ideals and thinking of the Chinese govn't. That makes the govn't slightly suspiciously of these scholars.

One good example of showing the atitude of the Chinese govn't would be to look at how they treat the internet. We all know that the Chinese govn't thinks highly of the internet. That's why they invested so heavily in everything about the internet, including hardware and software. That;s also why China has the largest or the second largest internet users in the world. But we all know how tightly the govn't controls the internet in China. I think the govn't sees the "sea turtles" in a similar light: highly useful with a dose of mistrust...
 

vesicles

Colonel
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

a lot of people on this forum needs to get rid of the mindset that "western culture is made for innovation and all that good stuff and everything else defies that". maybe you can start by reading edward said's "orientalism".

Hmmm... I hope you are not talking about me 'cause I don't hold that thought at all. I am in fact very proud of my Chinese heritage. I went back and checked all my posts and found nothing that would indicate that I hold that thought...

like i said the CCP has variety of policies in place to attract talented individuals. if talent has no place in China, how did they come up with their own military industry? i guess they must have copied it all from Russia. China is a lot bigger than that small chunk you see.

I never said "talent has no place in China". I think you might have misread me if you are talking about me. Both of my parents are China-trained scientists. I know how good they are. in fact, I believe that China has a very strong science program, quite opposite of what you believe that I said. It is also my strongest belief that Chinese govn't fully understands that it desperately needs talent and appreciate these scholars very much. NO QUESTION ABOUT IT!!! But the Chinese leadership also understands that even the best medication has some inherent toxicity. There is no such thing as a purely good thing with no side effects. Likewise, the Chinese govn't also understands that there is also some slight side effects accompanying these talented scholars. and I'm not saying these scientists have weaknesses themselves. I'm just saying that the Chinese govn't may think some of their beliefs and thinking are bad to the govn't. I think the Chinese leadership is a lot more complex than we give them credit for.

Like I said in my last post, look at how the Chinese govn't treats the Internet. They obviously think the internet is key to their plans to develop China. However, they are not totally embracing it. They are putting all sorts of limitations in an attempt to limit the "bad side" of the internet and emphasize the "good side" of it.
 
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pla101prc

Senior Member
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

Hmmm... I hope you are not talking about me 'cause I don't hold that thought at all. I am in fact very proud of my Chinese heritage. I went back and checked all my posts and found nothing that would indicate that I hold that thought...



I never said "talent has no place in China". I think you might have misread me if you are talking about me. Both of my parents are China-trained scientists. I know how good they are. in fact, I believe that China has a very strong science program, quite opposite of what you believe that I said. It is also my strongest belief that Chinese govn't fully understands that it desperately needs talent and appreciate these scholars very much. NO QUESTION ABOUT IT!!! But the Chinese leadership also understands that even the best medication has some inherent toxicity. There is no such thing as a purely good thing with no side effects. Likewise, the Chinese govn't also understands that there is also some slight side effects accompanying these talented scholars. and I'm not saying these scientists have weaknesses themselves. I'm just saying that the Chinese govn't may think some of their beliefs and thinking are bad to the govn't. I think the Chinese leadership is a lot more complex than we give them credit for.

Like I said in my last post, look at how the Chinese govn't treats the Internet. They obviously think the internet is key to their plans to develop China. However, they are not totally embracing it. They are putting all sorts of limitations in an attempt to limit the "bad side" of the internet and emphasize the "good side" of it.

i was talkin about that new guy there.

but if you are talkin about the sea turtle's experience with "democracy", that's not a problem at all for China. the trade that's the most "reactionary" in China are the lawyers, the sea turtles arent, in fact if they are willing to come back then they have accepted "the ideals of the CCP". though i would argue that the CCP is now a very pragmatic regime with very lil ideological inclinations
 

vesicles

Colonel
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

i was talkin about that new guy there.

Oops, sorry about that.

but if you are talkin about the sea turtle's experience with "democracy", that's not a problem at all for China. the trade that's the most "reactionary" in China are the lawyers, the sea turtles arent, in fact if they are willing to come back then they have accepted "the ideals of the CCP". though i would argue that the CCP is now a very pragmatic regime with very lil ideological inclinations

Fully agreed.

However, I do believe what is holding China back now is not the quality of the scientists, but the whole research system in China. Why else the same scientists who have been publishing in Science/Nature while working abroad can now only publish in low-impact journals in China? I think many oversea scientists think the same way. In fact, I think what China now needs is not simply some great individual scientists. China has plenty of that. What China needs is a change in the overall environment, which would utilize and maximize the potential of any scientist in China. But changing that means challenging the status quo. This change may not have anything to do with the ideals of CCP on the surface, but many people who are enjoying the status quo may not like that and these people are usually the ones in power.

For instance, Dr Rao suggests that they should scrap the entire national academy of sciences and build a completely new system. You can imagine how those who have been members of the academy think about the suggestion. Another example would be how the grants should be distributed. Now, these grants are given to those with connections to the govn't and the academy. This has been thought to be one of the major weaknesses of the Chinese scientific world. Changing this would mean giving the money to some brilliant scientists who are NOT well connected in the political circle. This would obviously hurt those who has connections with the leadership. This would mean less bribe money for the officials. Obviously, this won't be well received. That's why these oversea scientists complain about uphill battles. What they want to do is to make China a better environment for scientific research. And what they want to do may be perfectly in-line the policies of the CCP, but what they want to do may seriously hurt the personal interest of those in power, hence the resistance to the change and the uphill battle. And that;s why some of the "sea turtles" are actually hated by the locals.

Over the weekend, I talked with my parents who still have colleagues back in China. the message they got from talking with their old colleagues is that "sea turtles" like Shi are actually perceived as arrogant and many actually hate them. Now I do believe that sometimes, these "Sea turtles" would be a little heavy-handed when they use their newly acquired power. But they wouldn;t be any different than any other newly appointed officials, local or "sea turtles". It is highly possible that what they are doing and want to do is seriously threatening some people, most likely some corrupted officials. I personally think this is a good thing, but not for those being affected.
 
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vesicles

Colonel
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

Talking about see turtles, I had a conversation with my dad over the weekend about this. Upon talking with his colleagues back in China, my dad takes the same position as they do: these sea turtles should've just continued doing their own research. Instead, they became politicians and became very vocal on how they believe China's science/high tech should go. They've become annoying and seem to be very arrogant. Who are they to barge in and start telling people what to do? they have no idea what China is since they've been away for so long and they were still young when they left China... Note that this is a position held by many Chinese local scientists whom my parents have had contact with.

However, I disagree with their view. Like I said in my last post, I believe that China does not lack brilliant minds. Even though many have left China, China is a HUGE country and the pool is also HUGE. Plus the fact that I don't believe IQ or talent plays such a huge factor in determining how people succeed in their career. So again, China has the talent. What China desperately needs now and is lacking in a big way is to figure out how to use the talent. If this is not changed, even the most brilliant minds will go wasted. Like the soil condition, even the best plants will die on you if you have bad soil. Only by solving the soil problem, we can guarantee all plants will blossom. By simply doing their own research, these see turtles will be like those good plants that thrive somewhere are now planted in bad soil. They won't be able change anything. And even worse, they will be negatively affected as well and wither. the real job of these people is to change the soil condition in China since they have extensive experience in the kind of condition that allows them to thrive. What they need to do is to transform China's condition to something similar. And this means they need to go political. That's where they are most effective and would have the biggest impact. I think they are doing the right thing by being vocal about the weakness of China's science development. The fact that they are hated is a good sign for me because that means they are trying to change things. It is true that many have benefited from this system and don't like it to be changed. But these things are also the things that stall China's science development. For their effort, I applaud them.
 

pla101prc

Senior Member
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

Note that this is a position held by many Chinese local scientists whom my parents have had contact with.

well i agree with their view, why not? its not like the sea turtles know how to change the system, its not like they can. if they wanna make real contributions, they oughta just do their research with what resource with available to them. i go to school and i am very annoyed at how a lot of Chinese students who prolly didnt know crap about anything talkin like they are plato in allegory of the cave. i remember Chairman Mao once said "if an outsider joins the crew and cant get along with the others, then he oughtta look at himself for problems first". everyone who knows China knows there is a problem with the system, but acting like you are the only one who knows about it is just asking for trouble. plus there are plenty of sea turtles who went back to China and got along with the domestic environment, of course we wont hear from them because they have nothing to complain about.
 

rhino123

Pencil Pusher
VIP Professional
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

Actually, in recent decades we are seeing alot of growth in all areas in China. As many of us had been blinded by the seemingly successes of China... but I am not that optimistic. Growth must always be supported by basic infra-structure within the country. As far as I can see, many of the basic is still not able to support the country's massive and rapid growth.

One such structure is the energy network. In recent years, I have noticed that whenever there is some changes to the environment, such as during winter or extremely hot summer, China began to experience energy shortage. This is felt more pronouncely in area such as Dongguan and Shenzhen where she had stationed alot of her light manufacturing industries.

There is always this thing call restricted energy usage whereby some industries would have to stop production in certains days.

At present moment, the energy supply to the entire country is simply not enough and most of the power generator still runs on oil and gas... which China do not have enough (especially oil).

Thus as china grow rapidly... her energy network simply could not keep up. And I wonder what is their reserve like... and at present moment, it is peace time, so it seemed alright and nobody actually really look at this issue. However in wartime, no matter how good your hardware is... they cannot work without power.
 

Red Moon

Junior Member
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

The CCP may have a similar syndrome here. The Chinese govn't wants these scientists because of their scientific training in the West. They are also aware that living in the West for so long also gives these scientists something else: the idea of free thinking and possibly even a belief in democracy. I would think one thing the govn't worries about is that these Western trained scientists may bring the idea of democracy with them. And we know how much the CCP "loves" democracy. So it would be impossible for the govn't to completely trust these "sea turtles". Giving them too much voice might risk some of them finally convincing the public that democracy is a good thing for China. At least, that would be one of the things that the CCP might worry about. So don't expect to be fully trusted by the govn't if you decide to go back. They shake your hands and even hug you, but they also keep an eye on you and make sure you don't say/do things out of line. The same thing happened before. In the 50's, many overseas Chinese came back to contribute to the development of the new China. At the time, the Chinese govn't also understood that they needed help and the education and experience that these scientists brought with them were invaluable. That's why they were welcomed with open arms and intensively advertised as a sign of the power and the attractiveness of the newly formed communist China. And guess what, many of these young scientists became some of the main targets in virtually all movements in China, including the cultural revolution. Many of them were suspected of spying. It just shows you how much they were trusted by the govn't.

The New York Times article mentioned recently by someone in this thread quoted the particular scientist from Princeton as saying democracy was good for the US, but not for China. I think many Americans would beg to differ: the Chinese government, and "form of government", has done far better by the Chinese people than the American one has done by the American people, at least in recent memory. I am acually impressed by how many Westerners mock "democracy" these days. As far as I can tell, Chinese people abroad, those participating in sinodefence included, would not want to change governments in China, at least anytime soon.

This may be getting too political, but it reminds me of when I read through the Charter 08 document when it came out, or at least when it was publicized in the Western press. What impressed me then was that the document was so full of nice sounding generalities about solving China's corruption and other problems by copying the West, just at the time when the West practically flushing itself down the toilet in the financial crisis. I would expect better of Chinese who are more familiar with the ways of the West, and particularly from people of a scientific temperament.
 

vesicles

Colonel
Re: Many people say China will catch up or exceed U.S in military strength decades la

well i agree with their view, why not? its not like the sea turtles know how to change the system, its not like they can. if they wanna make real contributions, they oughta just do their research with what resource with available to them. i go to school and i am very annoyed at how a lot of Chinese students who prolly didnt know crap about anything talkin like they are plato in allegory of the cave. i remember Chairman Mao once said "if an outsider joins the crew and cant get along with the others, then he oughtta look at himself for problems first". everyone who knows China knows there is a problem with the system, but acting like you are the only one who knows about it is just asking for trouble. plus there are plenty of sea turtles who went back to China and got along with the domestic environment, of course we wont hear from them because they have nothing to complain about.

If they are simply doing their own research, they would contribute to China's scientific development the same way as they have done in where ever they used to be before they went back to China. Why am I saying this? Well, this is because of the difference between industry and academia. In an industrial setting, every company keeps their secrets tightly and sees special skills of their employees as special assets that they protect very closely. A person's expertise in certain matter can only be utilized if he/she works for you in your company. He can not only contribute by using his special skills in actual projects, but also train other co-workers on the technology.

However, the academia setting is the complete opposite. We pride ourselves for sharing everything. Not only that, our career depends on it. There are two main things you look at when you evaluate the success of a scientific researcher: funding and publication. The two are of course connected. You need funding to do experiments so that you can publish your data. And the more and the better publication you have, your credibility as a researcher is better and your chance of getting more money is higher. A key element in this chain of event is how repeatable your data is. In the industry, you want to make sure you are the only one that has a certain technology, while in the academia, you want to make sure everybody can do it. In fact, your credibility, reputation and career depend on it. If you are the only one who can do it, people will joke about how "special" your lab is, but in their mind, everyone is thinking one of two things:
1) you made a mistake in your experiments, which mean you are incompetent.
2) You made up your data, which means...... Well we all know what that means: the end of your career

Although behind your back, people might only talk about #1, but nearly everyone is thinking about #2. We don't say it because, well, that destroys people. You don't make that kind of accusation unless you have concrete evidence. Anyway, you as a researcher will have a bad reputation. This is why I said in another post that scientists welcome validation from other people with open arms. And the only way to make sure others can repeat what we have done is to describe our thought process, experimental procedure and data analysis in such detail in our publication that anybody with minimal training would be able to do it. That means, if you want to learn my technique and my theories, all you have to is to read my papers. And anybody in the world with internet access can do that. That means any Chinese scientist is able to learn everything the world-class scientists have done any time they want. And this means, whether you are in the US or in China, you will influence how Chinese scientists do things in the same way. By doing your own research, the influence you have on Chinese scientific development would be the same no matter where you are since you are sharing everything in your papers. So why the trouble moving all the way back to China???

Of course, these scientists can also boost the reputation of the school/department they are in and attract more talented scientists to the school. But in China, that simply means internal movement of talents. The overall level of scientists in ALL china has not changed. So to that particular university with these see turtles, it's a good thing, but for China, it has no effect. Of course, these see turtle can also train more young talents. But they are already doing it while they are abroad. AS we all know, almost every lab in the US has Chinese students/postdocs. Especially, Chinese professors tend to have more Chinese students/postdocs. In fact, many labs headed by Chinese professors are composed of entirely Chinese staff. So coming back to China is not changing too much of that. So in other words, simply doing your research won't change a thing.

By adapting to the local environment, it means these scientists may have to bribe officials to get funding, or even worse, to become one of the corrupted officials. This means spending more time entertaining the officials and less time on research. That will actually hurt them. Of course, they can choose to be clean and not to do those things. This would mean that those corrupted officials won't give them funding they need to continue their projects. That will also hurt them. In other words, simply doing their own research will hurt them much more than they can help with the China's effort to develop its science and technology.

Simply put, they need to change the environment and be political.
 
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