Calm down. I was removed from the thread for my dissenting opinion, i.e. pro-Ukrainian position.
Same here, Pro-Russia. But as I recall, you called Russians "orcs" while all I said is that the fact that the US cut out the supposed moment of impact on the MQ-9 video alone makes it easy to guess what was in it. Of course we have since then gotten futher evidence of US culpability in manipulating a video (which it would not have to do if it were not lying again) but that's not the point in this post.
Drink Chinese vodka with a soaked snake.
I'll drink that. Won't drink Ohio water though.
The US and EU can put the Chinese dragon on a diet if China becomes a threat to them,
LOLOL The US and EU economies are looking pretty gaunt nowadays to be talking about putting someone else on a diet. They can try to slim down the dragon but they'll be diet buddies and they might not make it at this point.
since there are substitutes for China in its role as the world's factory - there is not much loss to be expected.
Yeah there are substitutes to China like your 4 friends in a garage making chairs is a substitute to IKEA LOL. Not much loss expected for China as we expand trade with non-Western countries; devastating loss to Western economies.
Although of course,
it's not that simple. The simple fact is. China holds more than half of the world's rare earths.
As of today, China accounts for 63 percent of the world's rare earth mining, 85 percent of rare earth processing, and 92 percent of rare earth magnet production.
So, for example, 9/10 of neodymium magnets come from the Middle Kingdom. And not only that. In general, even Venezuela and Iran are not punished by sanctions. China itself can twist anyone's testicles if it wants to. The fact that they have not done it so far, well, they were raising their economy. Money likes peace and quiet. But it should be understood that it is not a country that can be kicked under the bench.
It's not even the important part. China is growing on all fronts, as well as its economy and technology. It wants nothing more that to just keep growing, which leads to the next part.
In general, a strange situation has developed. Imho, the United States feels existentially threatened by China and is seeking by all means to unleash a conflict with the Chinese while they are still dominant and have the power and means to fight the east. It is not, of course, a question of direct military conflict, but rather of political-economic supremacy.
That is correct, and they are doing a miserable job at every turn.
Their natural ally in this confrontation would have to be, oddly enough, Russia. Which cannot help but feel the same existential threat to itself from China, given their potential territorial claims. But instead the west is forced to punch Russia in the face to its detriment and spend resources to bring it to its senses. And if it also falls apart, and pieces of Siberia go to the Chinese, all on American taxpayers' money, it will just be a complete nightmare.
The nightmare begins; your argument falls apart so badly I'm having trouble deciding where to start. Of course America would love to have Russia on its side against China but this is a stupid dream given every event from Soviet Union times to now. Russia is in its right senses. NATO knocking on its door, its fight is there. It's psychotic to ignore that and focus on China's nonexistent moves to take Siberia. And America trying to rally the world to support Ukraine is basically the stupidest way possible to try to make Russia an American ally against China.
China's situation is interesting, too. On the one hand, if Putin loses and Russia begins to disintegrate, it will be possible to regain significant parts of its historical territories. And not only that. But there is a danger of another kind. Some Navalny might come to power and turn all politics to the west. Then China will lose twice.
There's no chance of Russia disintegrating. If Russia withdraws with its goals unmet (which is highly unlikely given Russia's depth), it would regroup and be rabidly anti-West because that is the force it is fighting against. Where in your imagination does Russia start to fall apart and love the people who beat it? Do things work like that in your country or family? If there is a failure, everyone begins infighting/parts ways and then starts to support the cause of your failure? LOL If Russia pulls out of Ukraine unsatisfied, it will be like the US when it had to, on several occasion, pull out of little places it invaded but could not keep.
Both Siberia and Taiwan would be ruined at once.
Makes no sense. Taiwan is decided by Chinese's rising power and we have no plans to take Siberia. Don't invent that.
On the other hand, if the collective West fails in Ukraine, Taiwan will realize that it has nothing to lose, and most likely it will be able to negotiate with it relatively amicably.
As much as I would like this (and if that is true, China should go all in helping Russia), this is another overreaction by you. Taiwan and Ukraine are separate issues. Both the ROC and PRC will learn from the Ukraine conflict but its outcome will not be accepted as the outcome over Taiwan by either side.
Russia will finally turn into North Korea, including with full vassal dependence on the Chinese. The world will become bipolar again. The disadvantage of this option is that it could result in an economic war with the entire West, which is a very serious matter, and the prospects are unclear. Besides, the age of empires is ending, Russia as a territorial entity is living its last days, and as a vassal it is extremely unreliable. It has no memory of kindness and will betray it at any moment and then be left face to face with an angry west.
What fantasy novel is this? You can kick a little country like North Korea under the table but you cannot pretend that a bear is not in your living room. Russia will never become North Korea and the EU will be looking for excuses everywhere to reengage the Russia it was forced to spurn because Russia is too big to fail.
The failures of large nations are temporary, just like the successes of small nations.
All in all, it is not an easy choice, although the prospects are considerable. Most likely, China will not rush into adventures, but will look where the curve takes it. For the time being, it is to secure its role as an active intermediary and an influential player, and then we will see.
Of course China prefers for things to be calm and continue to develop because such a trend has China growing to become the most powerful nation but things are not calm now so China can just calmly make decisions and navigate crises like Ukraine and COVID as they come. Fortunately, it does look like a much much better crisis navigator than the US.
@Sardaukar said:
"Their debt does not compare to the monstrous debts of Japan and the US."
China's national debt is five trillion BIGGER than that of the US. And $20 trillion more than Japan's
Yeah everyone else already took care of this for me. You don't know how to compare debt numbers.
Sardaukar wrote:
"So it really can survive an economic crisis."
Unlikely... Because it will simply have nowhere to sell its products... If everyone is in crisis - China is the worst off. Mass unemployment and related unrest - the Chinese government is unlikely to survive...
Unlikely? Just based on the number of times that Westerners have predicted that the CCP will collapse compared with how strong it is today, you'd think that they would stop repeating the same wrong prediction. But I guess they can't stop because it's not fuelled by logic but by desperate desire. The CCP ruled from the time Chinese people ate grass to survive to now, when China is the world's largest PPP economy, and is about the run over the entire West's collective efforts at dominance. The CCP is here to stay; you might as well wait for the sun to expire LOL
Sardaukar wrote:
"China is already at the level of 7nm technology, which is in line with modern technology."
China, but not that one. Island China, Taiwan is there.
Actually, according to Dr. Liang, both Mainland China and Island China are at the 3nm technology level. While Island China has no idea how to assemble a lithograph, Mainland China is perfecting one that can currently make 7nm chips, though not yet to the standard (costs, efficiency, quality, speed etc...) of being competitive with ASML.
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