Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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Chevalier

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A rather sobering assessment from US pov:

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Of course she's right that China's offer to regional countries (just do nothing, and we can go back to trading in a few weeks) is much better than USA's offer (let us use your bases so you then get bombed to rubble and lose by far your biggest trading partner whilst gaining the long term emnity of the biggest power in your region).
Well it's par for the course of US guiding philosophy and social doctrine.
The United States is a racially stratified society because the ruling class uses race to distract from a potential class war, favouring one non white demographic to focus the ire and anger of the other non white factions. This is what was meant by that US Establishment reporter in Ukraine this time last year when hostilities broke out, when he said it was hard for him to stomach seeing white ukrainians being refugees.

In the same vein as this doctrine of divide and rule, the US expects to use human shields in the form of Asian nations before having to resort to its own troops- often comprised of non whites, non white hispanics, lower, working class demographics. Chinese attacks against US bases in the Asia-Pacific would eliminate US threat to Asia but Chinese attacks against WASP homelands would bring the horror of war to the ruling class and demoralise them enough to sue for peace.
 

tonyget

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國防部從 2021 年 11 月通過將近 2,400 億元的「海空戰力提升計畫特別採購預算」後,委託中科院全速生產包括萬劍彈、雄昇巡弋飛彈、劍翔無人機、雄風三型和增程雄風三型反艦飛彈、陸射、艦射和增程型劍二對空飛彈、天弓三型防空飛彈等各型國產武器,目前中科院廠房內產線已增加到 16 條並全速運轉中。

由於中科院過去的飛彈產線並非全自動化生產,因此在投入預算更新並擴充產線為全自動化後,飛彈年產能預期可從去年的 800 枚,提升到今年或明年的 1,000 枚以上。

After the Ministry of National Defense passed the nearly 240 billion yuan "Naval and Air Combat Power Enhancement Plan Special Procurement Budget" in November 2021, it entrusted the Chinese Academy of Sciences to produce at full speed, including Wanjian bombs, Xiongsheng cruise missiles, Jianxiang UAVs, Xiongfeng III and Various types of domestic weapons such as extended-range Xiongfeng III anti-ship missiles, land-launched, ship-launched and extended-range Jian II anti-aircraft missiles, Tiangong III air defense missiles, etc. At present, the production lines in the factory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have increased to 16 and are operating at full speed middle.

Since the missile production line of the Chinese Academy of Sciences was not fully automated in the past, the annual production capacity of missiles is expected to increase from 800 last year to more than 1,000 this year or next year after spending a budget update and expanding the production line to be fully automated.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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國防部從 2021 年 11 月通過將近 2,400 億元的「海空戰力提升計畫特別採購預算」後,委託中科院全速生產包括萬劍彈、雄昇巡弋飛彈、劍翔無人機、雄風三型和增程雄風三型反艦飛彈、陸射、艦射和增程型劍二對空飛彈、天弓三型防空飛彈等各型國產武器,目前中科院廠房內產線已增加到 16 條並全速運轉中。

由於中科院過去的飛彈產線並非全自動化生產,因此在投入預算更新並擴充產線為全自動化後,飛彈年產能預期可從去年的 800 枚,提升到今年或明年的 1,000 枚以上。

After the Ministry of National Defense passed the nearly 240 billion yuan "Naval and Air Combat Power Enhancement Plan Special Procurement Budget" in November 2021, it entrusted the Chinese Academy of Sciences to produce at full speed, including Wanjian bombs, Xiongsheng cruise missiles, Jianxiang UAVs, Xiongfeng III and Various types of domestic weapons such as extended-range Xiongfeng III anti-ship missiles, land-launched, ship-launched and extended-range Jian II anti-aircraft missiles, Tiangong III air defense missiles, etc. At present, the production lines in the factory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have increased to 16 and are operating at full speed middle.

Since the missile production line of the Chinese Academy of Sciences was not fully automated in the past, the annual production capacity of missiles is expected to increase from 800 last year to more than 1,000 this year or next year after spending a budget update and expanding the production line to be fully automated.
The Taiwanese seperatist extremists are trying to make the island into a porcupine...

Unless Beijing has solid guarantee that the ROC military can be relied upon to overthrow the Taiwanese seperatist government in Taipei and hand over the island's control back to Beijing when the time comes, China must fully prepare the PLA and the Chinese population for the immense bloodshed that could result from the AR of Taiwan in the coming future

Dear PLA and the Publicity Department of the CPC - Please do your fvcking job.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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The Taiwanese seperatist extremists are trying to make the island into a porcupine...

Unless Beijing has solid guarantee that the ROC military can be relied upon to overthrow the Taiwanese seperatist government in Taipei and hand over the island's control back to Beijing when the time comes, China must fully prepare the PLA and the Chinese population for the immense bloodshed that could result from the AR of Taiwan in the coming future

Dear PLA and the Publicity Department of the CPC - Please do your fvcking job.
Why the alarmist/pessimist tone in your reply? Can you please make me understand what I am missing from reading the article linked?
 

FairAndUnbiased

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The Taiwanese seperatist extremists are trying to make itself into a porcupine...

Unless Beijing has solid guarantee that the ROC military can be ordered to overthrow the Taiwanese seperatist government in Taipei and hand over the island's control back to Beijing, China must fully prepare the PLA and the Chinese population for the immense bloodshed that could result from the AR of Taiwan in the coming future

Dear PLA and the Publicity Department of the CPC - Please do your fvcking job.
The #1 most important thing will be total disruption of Taiwanese infrastructure necessary for OTH targeting and receiving targeting data. That of course just means a more complete first strike.

If that's the case, @sequ reporting on 15k Iranian drones as an emergency purchase while PRC own loitering munitions ramp up may have some merit. 15k Shaheds as low end tactical targetting joining 2k cruise missiles and 2k ballistic missiles targeting high end strategic targets may be what pushes the first strike over the edge.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

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Chinese Academy of Science = PRC not ROC last time I checked unless my reading comprehension of the article is flawed @ACuriousPLAFan
Translation error. 中科院 is widely known as the abbreviation of PRC's Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The full name of CAS in Chinese is .

However, the ROC's National Chung-Shan Institute of Science & Technology (NCSIST) also has the same abbreviation as PRC's CAS, i.e. 中科院. The full name of the NCSIST in Chinese is 国家学研究.

(Characters from the full name used for the abbreviations are bolded for both cases)

The Taiwanese news article quoted above is refering to ROC's 中科院 (NCSIST), not PRC's 中科院 (CAS). Besides, all the weapons mentioned are for the ROC military, not the PLA.

Why the alarmist/pessimist tone in your reply? Can you please make me understand what I am missing from reading the article linked?
Explanations as per above.
 
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ACuriousPLAFan

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The #1 most important thing will be total disruption of Taiwanese infrastructure necessary for OTH targeting and receiving targeting data. That of course just means a more complete first strike.

If that's the case, @sequ reporting on 15k Iranian drones as an emergency purchase while PRC own loitering munitions ramp up may have some merit. 15k Shaheds as low end tactical targetting joining 2k cruise missiles and 2k ballistic missiles targeting high end strategic targets may be what pushes the first strike over the edge.
15 thousand kamikaze drones may only be enough for Taiwan. Having 24 million people squeezed on an island barely larger than Hainan would require a massive amount of transportation, telecommunications and energy infrastructures and facilities to be targetted.

Besides, apart from Taiwan, the PLA has to consider targets located along the FIC as well. Those would require at least hundreds of thousands of kamikaze drones, if not millions of them to be effective.

Furthermore, there is also the presence of specialized anti-drone SAM systems to consider. Having observed the developments of the war in Ukraine, seperatist extremists on Taiwan and countries along the FIC are definitely looking forward to equip them as well. That means the consumption of kamikaze drones would be significantly higher than what we've seen in Ukraine and also Nagorno-Karabakh.

In order to counter this, there are two ways:
1. Procure even more Shahed 131/136-like kamikaze drones; or
2. Procuring more capable kamikaze drones that can fly faster, can hug the terrain better, and with better LO characterstics.
Or you can do both.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
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15 thousand kamikaze drones may only be enough for Taiwan. Having 24 million people squeezed on an island barely larger than Hainan would require a massive amount of transportation, telecommunications and energy infrastructures and facilities to be targetted.

Besides, apart from Taiwan, the PLA has to consider targets located along the FIC as well. Those would require at least hundreds of thousands of kamikaze drones, if not millions of them to be effective.

Furthermore, there is also the presence of specialized anti-drone SAM systems to consider. Having observed the developments of the war in Ukraine, seperatist extremists on Taiwan and countries along the FIC are definitely looking forward to equip them as well. That means the consumption of kamikaze drones would be significantly higher than what we've seen in Ukraine and also Nagorno-Karabakh.

In order to counter this, there are two ways:
1. Procure even more Shahed 131/136-like kamikaze drones; or
2. Procuring more capable kamikaze drones that can fly faster, can hug the terrain better, and with better LO characterstics.
Or you can do both.
I think China can definitely make a Shahed-136 style for the FIC to suppress soft targets that don't require an IRBM or LACM to service. 3000 km range, 30 kg payload, 30k numbers. I believe Shahed already has small RCS and can't be jammed. the only way is kinetic.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
The #1 most important thing will be total disruption of Taiwanese infrastructure necessary for OTH targeting and receiving targeting data. That of course just means a more complete first strike.

If that's the case, @sequ reporting on 15k Iranian drones as an emergency purchase while PRC own loitering munitions ramp up may have some merit. 15k Shaheds as low end tactical targetting joining 2k cruise missiles and 2k ballistic missiles targeting high end strategic targets may be what pushes the first strike over the edge.
I don't think that rumor sounds credible.

In the first place, relations are not that close unless something happened recently. Besides, why would China effectively buy back its own dual use engines and electronics when it would be more convinient to make them at home?
 
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