Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario
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I agree. Fast and brutal is the way to go.
My observations of the Russo-Ukraine war and some of the latest opinions from the average Taiwanese has lead me to think that the PLA should expect considerable hostility in Taiwan. Although not every Taiwanese supports independence, it does appears that most will fight to defend their "way of life", no matter how misguided it looks from the outside. Therefore, the PLA should not expect any easy capitulation of the Taiwanese military and leadership.
If things have gone to the point of Armed Reunification, then PRC should go all in. Any dilly dally by the PRC would give time for the Taiwanese to recruit forces, receive aid from the West, and worse of all, drag the war for too long. There has been rumours that the Taiwanese military have recently been training to use civilians areas for military operations, essentially using civilians as human shields. This is not unlike what the Ukrainian military have been doing. A familiar thing for US-CIA-taught military doctrine for 'expendable' proxies in Syria, and Ukraine. The West and the DPP will use their media to depict any collateral damage as the PLA waging a brutal war. Therefore, there will be military and political necessity to neutralize all media communications in Taiwan at the start of AR. There must also be an acceptance by the PLA that AR will be ugly. Collateral damage will happen, because the enemy will make it happen. Hence its better to strike hard with measured brutality to end the war as fast as possible, than be too cautious and allow it drag on and claim more civilian lives. War is hell, don't let it drag on for too long.
Ideally, the PRC should attempt to go for the "Shock and Awe" strategy that the US used on Iraq. Take out the TV stations, power infrastructure, other dual-use infrastructure like airports, and off course, military installations. No half-ass job, take out the enemy's ability to fight as quickly and brutally as possible. Ride on that momentum to launch the next phase of operations and finish the job ASAP.
The biggest enemy for Russia is not actually the Ukrainian military and NATO. It is their own hubris. They have allowed their own propaganda machine to delude themselves that Ukraine have been defeated. Russian propaganda have been allowed to descend into celebrations about killing 'khokhols'. This is quite similar to the US's 'body-count' celebrations in the Vietnam War. What happened to the US and Russia next is history. The PLA must not allow propaganda to get into their heads. There should be celebrations about achieving military objectives. But don't allow any celebrations about how many Taiwanese separatists are killed. Don't laugh at the pain and losses of the Taiwanese. Don't underestimate the Taiwanese, no matter how desperate their situation is. Censor any nationalistic propaganda that has gone too far. The PRC's propaganda should focus on military victories, not the enemy's suffering.
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China is in the first place not looking for the rebel leadership to surrender alive.
Unlike Ukraine, which wishes it can hit the heads of the Donbass rebels but lacks the ability to do so, China can easily hit the heads of US' ROC puppets wherever they go. Whenever the homeland comes under attack, any major rebel leader who isn't already very well concealed will get their position striked.
What average Taiwanese think don't matter. China is not very brutal compared to some other countries, but from the orchestrators of the cultural revolution, killers of a vast number indians and Vietnamese just to make a point towards the USSR etc. You would expect them not to get their hands dirty when it's needed?
If rebel forces attack together with foreign forces, and they hide in cities behind civilians, it is the duty of Chinese civilians to fight them with all their available means, just like in ww2. Take pictures of rebel positions and upload it online, make roadblocks, throw molotovs etc.
Failure to resist and willingly accepting invaders into your home is the same as collaborationism, it is not a loss for China if such people were hit as collective damage.
They will be shelled just like the remaining civilians that help Russians in the Donbass get shelled. But by 10 000 rockets a day, not 10, because China has an actual functioning military with more stuff than infantry waves unlike Ukraine.
Chinese don't have any illusions about what US and especially Japanese boots on Chinese soil means.
Well I did actually mention that the PLA should expect Armed Reunification to be ugly. There is military necessity to attack Taiwanese civilian collaborators with their military. The PLA should not be thinking about trying to fight the war clean. Because it'll be impossible with an enemy like the DPP, and their American puppet masters. If there are any Taiwanese civilians who somehow want to get involved in the fighting whether directly, or indirectly, then they are legitimate military targets. The message should be clear to them: stay out of the PLA's way, or die.
Having said that. The PRC's propaganda machine must avoid glorifying the killing Taiwanese combatants and civilian collaborators. Just because it is militarily necessary, it is not something to celebrate about. Russian propaganda made this mistake. Russian netizens routinely posted propaganda that celebrated and mocked the deaths and suffering of Ukrainians in battle. While some of it may be justified (dead Nazis and foreign volunteers), this is not healthy propaganda. It lead to the Russians severely underestimating the Ukrainians. The PRC must guard against such type of propaganda.
China solving the issue mostly without the military would be the best. It need to be an inside job first or it will be hard economically.
If it go on the military only side, so many are relying on China to manufacture all their goods, Russia like sanctions would bring disaster to everyone. Clearly not sure if so many will go in the bangwagon again.
How difficult can it be to engineer an Abe like assassination by special forces already on the island? Politicians are soft targets that have to show themselves in public. While targeting leaders of sovereign states would set a bad precedent, liquidating a rebel leader by drone strike is pretty common
I'm not talking about that kind of inside job... it's more about setting a China friendly governement in place while gaining civilians supports. American pawn need to be paid off or something to make way more or less...
This is not true.
Whether the B-52 or B-1 carry JASSM (400 km) and other stand-off missiles, for example, with just 20 B-52s the USAF can launch 400 JASSM-ER missiles with a range of 1,000 km. The B-1 for example is integrating the ability to launch LRASM among several other examples. Not to mention stand-off decoy missiles like the 1,000km MALD.
This is also not entirely true. Russia can take off their bombers and fly under Belarus and launch the missiles to hit Lviv and other western Ukraine regions easily, they did 1 or only 2 times during the whole war, it still remains unknown why they didn't do it more often. So this is no parallel with China as an example of cities like Liaoning, Shanghai, Nanning, Chongqing, Xian or Chengdu having the same strategic depth as Lviv.
With the exception of Nanning, Shanghai and Liaoning, the rest are off the coast or bordering the sea coast, so Chongqing, Xian and Chengdu are in the hundreds or thousands of kilometers from the coast, lying between the furthest possible borders of the coast. that you described.
Xian is 950 km from the coast.
Chongqing is 1,100 km from the coast.
Chengdu is 1,400 km from the coast.
Shanghai is on the coast.
Liaoning is on the coast.
Nanning is 100 km from the coast.
Calculating distances:
Okinawa is just over 800 km away from Shanghai.
Nagasaki is the same distance from Shanghai, something in the house of just over 800 km.
Sinan-gun in South Korea is even closer, some 580 km away from Shanghai.
Sinan-gun is at a distance of 770 km from Liaoning.
China's problem is not and will not be the strategically deeper inner cities, but the coastal areas that stretch from Liaoning to Hong Kong.
Before evaluating the air defense capability of these cities, the entire PLAAF and the entire PLANAF would need to have been destroyed to think about attacking these more distant cities. In fact, I would find it quite counterproductive to implement solid anti-aircraft defenses in these outlying cities when the more coastal regions need this defensive anti-aircraft apparatus.
China would need to build a comprehensive C4ISTAR capability (is building) across this coastal perimeter in addition to having many fighter jets (is expanding).
As many times as daddy demands...it's not like Japan came out of stagnation, their sacrifice hasn't stopped and ongoing for 2-3 decades now.
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