Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario


Temstar

Major
Registered Member
Don’t know about all the exercises but Hanguang is political. If the results appear to tilt against the ROC side variables are immediately revised so that the PLA is defeated. I don’t recall a single instance where the OPFOR managed to gain an advantage.
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Here's what happened last year, it was pretty stupid.

ROC counterattack begins by having ROCAF ISR discover the location of PLAGF long range rocket artillery that's been pounding the crap out of the runways and counter battery with Hsiung Feng IIE cruise missile. Once the rocket artillery are forced to relocate ROCAF fighters take off and bomb all attacking PLA assets while their own airfields are protected from air and ballistic missile attack with Sky Bow III which has 100% successful chance of inception against cruise missiles and even DF ballistic missiles.

If you were to make a TV military drama like that people are going to call into the station to complain at least as hard as season 8 GoT.
 

siegecrossbow

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Here's what happened last year, it was pretty stupid.

ROC counterattack begins by having ROCAF ISR discover the location of PLAGF long range rocket artillery that's been pounding the crap out of the runways and counter battery with Hsiung Feng IIE cruise missile. Once the rocket artillery are forced to relocate ROCAF fighters take off and bomb all attacking PLA assets while their own airfields are protected from air and ballistic missile attack with Sky Bow III which has 100% successful chance of inception against cruise missiles and even DF ballistic missiles.

If you were to make a TV military drama like that people are going to call into the station to complain at least as hard as season 8 GoT.

When you tamper with exercise results like this (ahem tank biathlon) few guesses as to how you perform in actual combat.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
When you tamper with exercise results like this (ahem tank biathlon) few guesses as to how you perform in actual combat.
Well, to be fair, the PLA also regularly tamper with exercises. Only they do it to aid opfor and impede the red team to make things far harder for them.

So if there is ever a real fight, I think both sides will have legitimate grounds to complain that things didn’t go much like the simulations.
 

siegecrossbow

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Well, to be fair, the PLA also regularly tamper with exercises. Only they do it to aid opfor and impede the red team to make things far harder for them.

So if there is ever a real fight, I think both sides will have legitimate grounds to complain that things didn’t go much like the simulations.

Shhh... There are some Taiwan politicians who think that the Zhurihe Opfor simulates the Taiwanese military.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Before Ukraine, everyone believed the US would send the American military in to help Taiwan if China took action. Now because of Ukraine, things look bleak for Taiwan. Nothing is as black and white. The US giving Taiwan intelligence is a given compared to sending in their own soldiers. Sorry to say the obvious because the West likes to exaggerate. I haven't heard anything that the Ukrainians are winning the war just because they killed some Russian generals. The EU has delayed their ban of Russian energy moving it from the end of May to the end of the year meaning they're seeing the war going on until at least until then. So what did killing Russian generals do? Superficial victories. I just saw CNN do an interview with Western volunteers fighting with the Ukrainians on the front. They said the Ukrainians are asking them where are all these weapons the West are promising? So would it be not surprising that the West is taking credit for things they're not actually doing? Where's the proof these generals are actually being killed in action? Just because the West says it, it has to be true?

I have to laugh that people believe that Taiwanese are just as good as Ukrainians. The US took credit there too saying they've been training the Ukrainians for the last eight years. People already forgot that the US also trained the Afghan army. The West is accusing Russia of using white phosphorus weapons which is against international law but they ignored Israel using white phosphorus in Gaza. Remember all the cluster bombs that the US used during the Gulf War. Now it's a war crime that Russia is using them. Biden was just at the Alabama plant that makes the very weapons being shipped over to Ukraine and news also broke saying the US is having supply issue problems in getting those weapons for the Ukrainians. It means the US doesn't have enough weapons for themselves let alone for Taiwan. They can't blame it on China because there are laws where everything made for the US military has to be sourced from the US.

When China gets its hypersonic weapons deployed, it will be able to hit Western aircraft carriers in their home ports anywhere around the world. What's a general or an admiral without their weapons? Why doesn't the West chew on that? How about an Alabama weapons factory...? Can it escape and maneuver like an aircraft carrier? Look at how much they will have to spend to place anti-missile systems around every target of worth in the West. Bankruptcy like what happened to the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War.
 

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