Don’t know about all the exercises but Hanguang is political. If the results appear to tilt against the ROC side variables are immediately revised so that the PLA is defeated. I don’t recall a single instance where the OPFOR managed to gain an advantage.
ROC counterattack begins by having ROCAF ISR discover the location of PLAGF long range rocket artillery that's been pounding the crap out of the runways and counter battery with Hsiung Feng IIE cruise missile. Once the rocket artillery are forced to relocate ROCAF fighters take off and bomb all attacking PLA assets while their own airfields are protected from air and ballistic missile attack with Sky Bow III which has 100% successful chance of inception against cruise missiles and even DF ballistic missiles.
If you were to make a TV military drama like that people are going to call into the station to complain at least as hard as season 8 GoT.