Lessons for China to learn from Ukraine conflict for Taiwan scenario

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SEAD

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Organizing that many people from different branches of the military is not a field trip. I think Taiwanese expectation of half a year is way too long, but you still need at least two weeks to a month to get everything ready.
Aerial attack takes time, I think 2 weeks is a perfect time to complete the air preparation for the amphibious operation.
 

Jason_

Junior Member
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Given the Taiwan conflict will likely start as an air war first, there is no need to mass mobilise troops until the war starts.
Exactly. Suppose mobilizing troops take a month. Why would the PLA waste this time doing nothing except mobilizing troops when the time can be spent more fruitfully bombing Taiwan's defenses into oblivion (while also mobilizing troop)? The day troop movements become visible to satellites should be the day the bombing starts.
 

Skywatcher

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Plenty of hastily conscripted armies with no prior experience under fire exhibited remarkable steadiness when under fire that no veteran can readily surpass. whether the conscripts exhibit this at the moment of truth depends on whether the conscripts really are fighting for something they believe, and whether they see the consequence of defeat to be so severe that they individually regard defeat to be an Unacceptable price for life.

When a conscript army has steadiness for these reasons, this steadiness is not always enough to win. But this steadiness would make by far the biggest difference to the outcome of the war if it came as a surprise to an enemy, and the enemy did not account adequately in their planning for this possibility, and made the opposing conscripts not fighting, or melting away at the first shot, a critical condition needed for their own success.

We saw this time and again since the first mass conscript revolutionary French army trounced the professional armies of the monarchies of Europe. Most recently we see this in Ukraine.
Will to power is not a substitute for combat experience. Steadiness is going to evaporate after the first several loitering munitions hit your company, and you don't have any C2 above the battalion level.

The revolutionary French armies worked because they were levies backing up the prerevolutionary French army (a lot of the officer corps stayed well into the Napoleonic era).
 

Volpler11

Junior Member
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Troop movements can’t be concealed. Only way to do this is to hold massive drills every year.
Does PLA actually need to move troops before the start of the war? Part of the Stride exercise is practising rapidly deploying a brigade-sized force across the country within something like 24 hours. This demonstrates that PLA could rapidly mobilise within a few days' time. What is more observable might be the gathering of transport ships and other naval assets.

Part of the reason Russia took a long time to build up troops was that they want to intimidate Ukraine to back down but it failed so they had to resort to actually committing their troops. A Taiwan scenario would have many factors that are different to the current Ukraine war. At a minimum there needs more analysis and justification to say that there will necessarily be a long period of troop build-up.
 
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SEAD

Junior Member
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If China was to go for Taiwan i believe it would be a 'bolt from the blue' no prior warning just a massive cruise missile strike followed by whatever forces the PLA and PLAN can throw in before the west can attack. seeing as China is not the west and you can actually keep things secret it should not be impossible.

The Ukraine comparison is interesting, the AFU had advanced knowledge of a invasion for nearly a year and was still taken by surprise. what does that say for Taiwan?
I don’t think they need to hurry up “before the west can attack”. In 5 years it would be very difficult for US military to defeat China in a Taiwan scenario, unless we decide to begin a total warfare or even a nuclear one(while that also doesn’t guarantee victory).
 

SEAD

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Contrary to the wish thinking fantasy road trip scenario outlined several times in this thread, China might be able to launch a bolt out of the blue missile attack on Taiwan, it may even launch a fairly severe surprise air raids over Taiwan for a few days. That’s it.

Whatever invasion force that can be thrown over the syrait without any warning in a world with cm resolution satellite images is one the scale of several battalions, 10-12 on the outside, at most.

If these do not cause Taiwan to capitulate, then I think there can be no scenario where china can wrap up the war before full intervention by everyone who will intervene.

There is no way to accumulate land forces large enough to have a chance in hell of defeating the land forces in Taiwan, plus the supplies needed to enable it to function more than a few days, at embarkation points, plus concentrate the shipping and supporting naval units to enable it to land amphbiously against opposition, plus gather the supporting echelons for large scale intensive air operation to air bases within range, plus make civil defense preparations to receive casualties, receive counter fire on coastal or even inland civilian targets, all within a few days or even a few weeks. If it was accomplished within a couple of month, it would already be an epic feat of exemplary staff work and logistic miracles unparalleled in military history.

No surprise can be expected if these preparation lasts more than a week or two.

It has been said amateurs talk tactics and strategy, and professionals talk logistics. That the logistic challenges and timelines of mounting the largest amphibious invasion since D-day could be so trivially dismissed speaks to the seriousness of the people opinionating.
Anybody thinking about intervention should think about defeat firstly.
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I bet the chance of winning is roughly 50-50, and it would be more and more difficult over time. Their amphibious fleet is still vulnerable but air superiority over Taiwan is becoming a mission impossible for USN/USAF.
It’s not comfortable but we all need to get used to that. For me the best strategy of Taiwan perhaps to be a modern Iwo Jima.
 
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Minm

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China will slowly normalise an increased military presence close to Taiwan so it's permanently mobilised and can strike as soon as necessary. China has already normalised a huge number of missiles pointing at Taiwan. It has also normalised regular aerial raids into the Taiwan ADIZ. In addition China has normalised the presence of many ships around the diaoyu islands, which are fairly close to Taiwan. All of these will come together to attack if Taiwan goes for independence.


The next step could be to slowly build up a small artillery force in Xiamen next to Kinmen. As long as it's seen as a local threat, maybe about fishing rights or sand, it won't escalate but could provide a justification for increased troop presence. A few years later they'll be part of a surprise invasion force
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
China will slowly normalise an increased military presence close to Taiwan so it's permanently mobilised and can strike as soon as necessary. China has already normalised a huge number of missiles pointing at Taiwan. It has also normalised regular aerial raids into the Taiwan ADIZ. In addition China has normalised the presence of many ships around the diaoyu islands, which are fairly close to Taiwan. All of these will come together to attack if Taiwan goes for independence.


The next step could be to slowly build up a small artillery force in Xiamen next to Kinmen. As long as it's seen as a local threat, maybe about fishing rights or sand, it won't escalate but could provide a justification for increased troop presence. A few years later they'll be part of a surprise invasion force
I believe the step afterwards will be low level incidents to chip away at their will while building up more capability, yet no individual action is seen as a big deal. Basically a series of provocations set up such that Taiwan backing down is a humiliation, and Taiwan trying to stop them means full scale war.

Something like extra strict enforcement of maritime law on Taiwanese ships, freedom of navigation patrols just over the midpoint line, consistent CAP inside their ADIZ, amphibious exercises near their SCS islands, etc. Trying to stop any of these requires shooting first. Not stopping them is backing down.
 

escobar

Brigadier
I wonder how PLA senior officers are seeing the deaths of Russian generals. Will PLA be able to deter US from giving TW intelligence
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