Ladakh Flash Point

ougoah said:

Let's see if India makes a move to grab the 20% with the 50,000 more troops. Bloomberg article makes it sound like it will have the option of invading into China proper. I doubt China would even allow India to get de facto control over the 20%, to say nothing of "allow Indian commanders more options to attack and seize territory in China if necessary". At least the reporting is relatively honest.

In all seriousness it looks like India is sending in more men to supplement the already massive garrison of troops on the border, partly in response to China's expansion of military installations well within China's side of LAC and line of control.

Would be more interested to see the equipment India has been moving to the border rather than more men. How many more fighters are being stationed there compared to months ago? How many more pieces of artillery and armoured vehicles? India has plenty of people to move around but a real indicator of escalation would be equipment and expansion to facilities to accommodate equipment and logistics for sustained fighting.

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The 50,000 would be a cost effective way to tell their public
"See! we are doing something against the Chinese".

The latest Chinese construction binge regarding upgradation of airfields in Aksai Chin and Tibet in general seems to have alerted both the population as well as the politicians.

Afterall, this isn't as costly procuring equipments, ammunition and weapons to oppose it.

China's expansion to one airfield isn't a real threat to India. There is no parity in how much air power each side can mobilise for a border conflict. China is totally outnumbered by India but that news on PLAAF airfield expansion did make its way into India and the political class feel a need to respond in some way. 50,000 men won't be any meaningful force if shooting starts. It's a tiny area and Chinese high yield thermobaric weapons are mass produced like smartphones. It's not men that China worries about, it is improving Indian logistics that could potentially maintain their numeric edge in the air for this region and convert it all into sustained fighting while disrupting Chinese artillery. One way to work against that problem is to expand the Chinese airfields nearby but a few more fighters is going to do little. Maybe PLA's solution in case of actual combat is to use PLARF against Indian logistics and airfields. At the moment they have close to no meaningful interception capabilities at all but will eventually take delivery of S-400. Spyder is useless in small numbers and Akash less capable than Spyder in that role.

I would only be convinced that a Chinese action is being considered (or counter action) OR Chinese consider an Indian invasion a genuine threat, if and when significant boost to PLAAF numbers in this region takes place. Of course it may have been the case for a while but it isn't broadcasted. I don't think landing a few J-10s and Flankers into this theatre is going to do anything. If there is a genuine threat of India invading into China proper, there would be much more preparation (again maybe there have been). India making a genuine move onto the remaining dispute will just be met with more PLA ground forces again.

India is prob just trying to make a show of force on the 100 year anniversary celebration with the troop movement for domestic consumption of ja hind

daifo said:

India is prob just trying to make a show of force on the 100 year anniversary celebration with the troop movement for domestic consumption of ja hind

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Exactly.

India isn't ready for any kind of escalation that'd devolve into a protracted war. Their Sukhois have poor availability rates, their Rafale pilots have only started notching up flight hours ( the jet itself is just a squadron or two), they are scouting for Light tanks ( The Russian sprut might get selected)...

In short, they have started considering seriously the war but have yet to gain capacity for it.

ougoah said:

Maybe PLA's solution in case of actual combat is to use PLARF against Indian logistics and airfields. At the moment they have close to no meaningful interception capabilities at all but will eventually take delivery of S-400. Spyder is useless in small numbers and Akash less capable than Spyder in that role

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It's the other way around. The biggest threat to the S-400 would be the PLARF. It would be the first target of the opening wave, which would focus on SEAD/DEAD.

Larger and more expensive SAM batteries are the worst option to use against saturation attacks and are also the most vulnerable. That's why they are protected by rings of shorter-range point-defense systems, and depending on the depth and complexity of the saturation waves, even they can easily get overwhelmed. There is no system in operation that can reliably counter a potent saturation attack of missiles/decoys/drones. In any future peer conflict, it will be about which side launches the swarm first.

ougoah said:

50,000 men won't be any meaningful force if shooting starts. It's a tiny area and Chinese high yield thermobaric weapons are mass produced like smartphones.

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Thermobaric weapons are for fortifications, like tunnel systems and caves. Cluster munitions are for massed formations.

ougoah said:

China's expansion to one airfield isn't a real threat to India.

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It's actually a much bigger problem than the Indian trolls realize. Because the infrastructure that the PLAAF is building is 'dual-use.' It can quickly be re-geared for offensive operations across the entire border (3 AFBs in the East, 3 in the West, and 2 in the center):



"The full intended extent of Chinese military infrastructure development in the region also remains not fully known, as each individually identified new runway or other military infrastructure expansion project in itself increases the potential scale and scope of China’s long-term plans. With different airbases at different stages of completion, from old airbases receiving thorough updates to newly constructed runways at others, interpretations of how Beijing will operationally apply this increased capacity develops along with the construction work.

Current observations through satellite imagery, as well as of overall Chinese behavior along its border with India, only tell the story so far, but it is clear that this is not the endpoint of China’s expanded military infrastructure ambitions."

Seems to me that india is in a much better strategic position than china. it has much less contentious borders than china, and much less potencial adversaries than china. Perhabs china should do well to concentrate more on its army. Wars are won by land forces.

Orthan said:

Seems to me that india is in a much better strategic position than china. it has much less contentious borders than china, and much less potencial adversaries than china. Perhabs china should do well to concentrate more on its army. Wars are won by land forces.

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What do you mean by less contentious borders? China has only contentious border with India while India has one with China and one with Pakistan. Eastern front concerns for China have always been there before India. So your rationale is a strange one.

I consider China being in the much stronger strategic position and the seemingly weaker tactical position - China's major centres are nowhere near this region while India's are within rocket artillery and SRBMs. However also because of this, India can mobilise far more troops than China. The question is how much equipment could India truly transport over. I think China should do well to concentrate on supplementing the existing PLAAF and air defenses positioned around this region. Artillery, missiles, and ground forces would make short work of Indian troops that are not well supported by IAF and India's equivalent of long range artillery and missile forces ... which barely exist and where it does, it lacks the numbers. The issue is I do not think the PLAAF positioned in this region is able to counter the IAF given the huge number disparity. The PLAAF have not positioned any J-20s, J-10C, or J-16 nearby as far as I'm aware. Not too sure about special mission aircraft and the range of drones China has got elsewhere. Back to your point about potential adversaries, the threat in the east has been there before India... basically your argument there is that China should not bother defending its claims on disputed territory because it has far more capable adversary challenging it in the western Pacific?

ougoah said:

What do you mean by less contentious borders? China has only contentious border with India while India has one with China and one with Pakistan. Eastern front concerns for China have always been there before India. So your rationale is a strange one.

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I should have said that china has much more potencial adversaries on its borders than india. In adition of india, china has the long central asia border (which may give trouble to china in the future), russia, the korean peninsula, vietnam (all of which have large military forces) and last but not least is taiwan which of course requires large forces being present in the strait.

Compare that to india which only has china and pakistan as neighbours with large military forces.

Orthan said:

Seems to me that india is in a much better strategic position than china

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Wrong

Orthan said:

it has much less contentious borders than china

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Wrong

Orthan said:

and much less potencial adversaries than china

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Wrong. China is the worst kind of adversary you would want.

Orthan said:

Perhabs china should do well to concentrate more on its army

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Wrong. Lol at China marching its infantry through the mountains.........

Orthan said:

Wars are won by land forces.

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Wrong. Old man, your thinking is outdated for the modern times. Maybe its time for retirement?

Man, this thread attracts a lot of "high" quality comments...

twineedle said:

Fine, I will post it again

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The fact that India today labeled that particular PLA camp as within the Hot Springs sector says enough

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@twineedle This is a perfect example of the totally garbage evidence that you post. It's a neutral satellite image that shows NOTHING. The only conclusion you can draw from that is that the land exists. Your entire debate strategy consists of claiming that the Indian military achieved something against China based on neutral evidence, except your "neutral evidence" doesn't support any of your claims.

And it's not hard to understand that Indian sources that admit failure are trustworthy but those that claim victory are not because India's default is failure and a person known for lying to bolster himself will rightfully be doubted when he claims success but not when he claims defeat. It's the logic that he always pads his failures by a factor of ~X so anything that a claimed success, when ~X is subtracted, is likely a failure, and anything that's already a failure, when you factor in the subtraction of ~X, likely means a failure of a larger degree. Just like if you have a friend who always claims to win fights against several big guys but is always proven by witnesses and security camera footage to be lying and have lost every fight afterwards, you'd call him a liar every time he says he won another fight. But if he calls you one day and says he's bleeding out in a ditch, you don't think he's lying like usual; you race to find him cus you believe he probably got beaten so bad this time he'll die if you don't get him to the hospital soon. India's that guy.

KYli said:

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@KYli Good. The number one cause of Indian military casualties is fratricide. The more the better; it's like a room full of people wearing spikes all over them LOL

Orthan said:

Seems to me that india is in a much better strategic position than china. it has much less contentious borders than china, and much less potencial adversaries than china.

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@Orthan You mean it's better to be weak and unnoticed so no major powers are interested in antagonizing you? For some, that is a better living. Not for any aspiring superpower though.

Orthan said:

Perhabs china should do well to concentrate more on its army. Wars are won by land forces.

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Perhaps you should learn your military history. The land army is the most vulnerable and must be defended by the air force. But it's pointless to discuss that here because China has an absolute advantage over India in every military domain.