Ladakh Flash Point
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I think there are also strategic considerations for the PRC to keep pressure in the border areas. This will not only force India to supply Ladakh and other flash points over winter but also prevent them from cutting manpower within the Indian army. Chinese military modernization was tremendously helped by the collapse of the Soviet Union since it made cutting down the ground force possible. As a result more money could be allocated to the air force and navy as well as mechanization of a smaller ground force. China could prevent a lot of Indian defense budget from going to weapons procurement by tying down the Indian army.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I don’t think the current troop dispositions in disputed boarder areas will have much bearing on overall Indian strategic thinking in terms of overall troop numbers and modernisation efforts. It’s not a new dispute after all, and if India was planning to make troop reductions, it was never going to cut its mounting corps.
I think the reason China has maintained its forces in the boarder region rather than withdraw them as it has before has an element of caution to it.
With tensions at an all time high and the US elections coming up, I think there would be serious concern in Beijing that Trump might try something as a last ditch effort to rescue his re-election chances.
As such, I think the strategic calculus regarding the Indian threat has also been re-evaluated and Chinese defence posture changed from minimal presence on the boarder and defence in depth to maximum threat.
Historically, the PLA just maintained minimal numbers on the Indian boarder to be just enough to patrol it, with little emphasis on being able to effectively repulse a determined large scale Indian assault.
That fitted well with the Chinese defensive philosophy of letting the Indians throw the first punch.
There were minimal targets of worth for the Indians to alpha strike, and the empty nature of the region meant there wasn’t really anything worth defending. If the Indians attacked, the PLA is happy for them to make initial meaningless gains that it could then roll back with interest once it has brought its main forces to bear.
It was really a ‘come and have a go if you think you are hard enough’ sort of strategic trap, that would cast India as the undisputed aggression while denying them any worthwhile opening targets, all to set the stage for the PLA to come and curbstomp the Indian army on Chinese soil where their supply lines and routes of retreat could be easily cut. After China has destroyed the Indian army in China, it could then roll on into India with next to no opposition.
But that was assuming India would be the only foe China will be fighting.
The main threat now is that India and America would team up to start a two front war.
Also, China need to consider the worst case scenario in terms of American moves to the East, which would be them recognising Taiwan Independence and effectively forcing China into launch a war of reunification.
Under such circumstances, China really does not want to have to waste time and resources putting down Indian nonsense. As such Chinese defensive strategy against India has now changed to one of maximum deterrence. To make it abundantly clear that any India misadventures on the boarder would be met with an immediate and overwhelming response.
It’s not ideal as it ties up significantly PLA assets, but it would still be a tiny fraction of the forces needed to crush the Indians after they launched an attack.
From GPF, a US-based thinktank (not a great source for this particular conflict, but this was interesting):
" Somewhat more concerning to India, China is building at least one site for surface-to-air missiles in the disputed region. Additionally, China’s foothold in neighboring Nepal also appears to be growing, with the Survey Department of the Agriculture Ministry reporting that . More concerning to China than any Indian response in the Himalayas, meanwhile, is additional evidence that its assertiveness is pushing India to accelerate . Indian officials are also apparently worried that China might finally be succeeding in getting Thailand to build the Kra Canal at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca. The project has been and probably still is a pipe dream, but it’s worth watching to see if the latest push is different. "
" Somewhat more concerning to India, China is building at least one site for surface-to-air missiles in the disputed region. Additionally, China’s foothold in neighboring Nepal also appears to be growing, with the Survey Department of the Agriculture Ministry reporting that . More concerning to China than any Indian response in the Himalayas, meanwhile, is additional evidence that its assertiveness is pushing India to accelerate . Indian officials are also apparently worried that China might finally be succeeding in getting Thailand to build the Kra Canal at the mouth of the Strait of Malacca. The project has been and probably still is a pipe dream, but it’s worth watching to see if the latest push is different. "
Read this from a random post on CD so take this with a ton of salt:
India considered purchasing winter clothing and tents from Russia until some genius decision maker mentioned that COVID pandemic is severe in Russia and the gear might be contaminated. This pissed the Russians off and apparently they are not selling anymore. The Indians didn’t want to buy American due to the expense so they tried to purchase the gear anonymously from third party Chinese dealers but the size of the purchase and requirements alerted the authorities so they froze the deal.
India considered purchasing winter clothing and tents from Russia until some genius decision maker mentioned that COVID pandemic is severe in Russia and the gear might be contaminated. This pissed the Russians off and apparently they are not selling anymore. The Indians didn’t want to buy American due to the expense so they tried to purchase the gear anonymously from third party Chinese dealers but the size of the purchase and requirements alerted the authorities so they froze the deal.
antiterror13
Brigadier
I don't think PRC cares much about Indian military, it is not considered strong enough to face PLA
India is facing huge budget deficit, massive unemployment, bigger than most countries due to C-19. War (even limited) is the last thing India want.
Indian medias are very bad, continuously spreading hoax news and very aggressive toward China. Indian culture is not like that, mostly influenced or paid by foreign body with obviously hidden agendas
Post C-19, China would be the few countries (if not the only one ) that have very strong technology and financial
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Pretty much everwhere Indians talk about this stuff, they want to block Malacca strait and all Chinese trading lanes. They said they will block the KRA canal too.
I’m assuming they want impress the US and compliment US actions in the SCS.
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