Ladakh Flash Point
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Delusion Level: 100
"Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi used his Independence Day speech on Saturday to claim his soldiers had given a befitting reply “from LoC to LAC” to those who attempted to transgress India’s borders."
As long as Modi has full control of the military then risks of physical war is low.
Mr. Modi practices yoga. Perhaps he can promote peace and tranquility among his soldiers through yoga and meditation?
It is obvious that Modi does not want further escalations. Despite the Galwan fiasco he still has high support rate among Indian populace. He can't control which direction an actual war turns and if India loses, it will turn the tide domestically against him and BJP.
Didn't they just pass a law banning a large variety of military imports? I can't imagine a viable domestic product within this decade.
If they are serious about it they should've just conducted above ground testing for nuclear fusion weapons. This way they could gain data on nukes and prompt international arms embargo in one fell swoop.
Yes that's what I thought too. If China had indeed lost the 1979 war with Vietnam, why are the Vietnamese still so bitter against China? They are just fine with the USA whom they confirmed to have defeated. But China's war with Vietnam looked so 'pleasant' compared to the war that America had inflicted on them.
Vietnam conceded territories to China during the border demarcation, and suffered numerous naval defeats. So I am confident that China did defeat Vietnam in the 1979 war. The experienced PAVN gave the PLA a nasty fight, but were still defeated in the end. Western analysts always want to portray China as the losers due to their superiority complex. If Uncle Sam lost to the Vietnamese, how could the 'peasant army' PLA won against them? The same thinking is still present today. They could not believe that:
1) Russia could defeat ISIS in Syria.
2) China could defeat Covid-19 so swiftly and decisively.
The J-11B with AESA and PL-15 could reasonably surpass the current versions of F-15s. But RCS, and payload cannot be feasibly upgraded with the existing J-11B air-frames. So no, I don't think that China is halting the J-11D development, nor should it ever do that. China could be facing against the latest of advanced 4th gen fighters like the F-15EX, F-16V, IAF upgraded Rafale, and the speculated IAF F-21. The J-11D is going to be much needed in the near future. It is going to be far more advanced than the J-11B, with reduced RCS, more advanced avionics, bigger payload, and better engines. I doubt even the introduction of the J-20 would stop the J-11D adoption. The J-11D would still be far more economical to produce and operate than the J-20. So, the J-11Ds would be more suitable for the bread and butter air superiority missions, while the J-20s could be reserved for critical missions. The J-11D should also be equipped with datalink, so that it could also act as the 'flying magazine' for the J-20, much like how the F-15EX is going to do with F-35.
Regarding the Indian military import ban. The Indian MOD also mentioned: “The embargo on imports is planned to be progressively implemented between 2020 to 2024,”. With a time frame of less than 4 years, that is an extremely tight schedule to for the Indian MIC to produce local substitutes. Considering the real speed of defense development in India, this is looking like yet another one of those hot air 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' campaigns.
I would even say that the J-11B is probably more capable than the F-15C from the 1980s due to being newer. And I definitely agree that the J-11BG would have the decisive edge against the F-15C.
For the other fighters you mentioned, other users have stated that J-10C is more or less comparable with the Rafale (especially if even newer versions of the J-10 enter service). The F-16V is somewhat overrated and I have no doubts that the J-10C is at least slightly superior to it overall. Why? The J-10C benefits from reduced RCS, superior kinematic performance (although less relevant in modern aerial combat), superior weapons suite, and has IRST integrated. F-16V is a significant upgrade over older F-16C/D Block 52, but compared to the upgrades on the J-10C, the improvements are relatively limited in comparison. The F-21 is still vaporware and I doubt it would ever be inducted into Indian service. It would be a critical logistical error to induct yet another plane that their pilots have no experience with in large numbers. The relatively limited number of Rafales is probably enough of a headache, but at least they have prior experience with French Mirages. And as far as I know, the F-15EX is basically the American counterpart to the J-16.
All of the advantages of the J-11D that you mentioned here are already present in the form of the J-16, which has reduced RCS, better avionics, far better payload, and superior engines. The only difference is that it is a tandem-seated rather than a single-seater, but that does not imply a disadvantage (except maybe slightly reduced kinematic performance and slightly shorter range). J-16 can easily perform air superiority missions equally as good as the J-11D, and there is no indication that having another pilot would somehow reduce that capability. On the other hand, by having another pilot, the J-16 can also ground strike missions better than the J-11D. And it is already established that the J-16 is the ordinance carrier for the J-20 and AWACS. So really, it is actually the J-16 that negates the benefits of inducting the J-11D. The J-11BG is just a midlife upgrade for the J-11B that would further reduce the need for J-11D (in case the J-11D was somehow more cost-efficient than the J-16), because the set of upgrades of the J-11BG would probably be comprised of most of the improvements of the J-11D, barring reduced RCS (which might be partially negated by the RAM coating that is almost certain to be on the BG version).
A bit of Indian and Russian logic - USAF will buy F-15EX therefore F-22s and F-35s are worse than the F-15EX just like PLAAF buying the Su-35 and still building J-10 and J-16 definitely means the J-20 is less capable. This is why India has superior intelligence and superpower status.
On a serious note though I really doubt the J-11D will include any radical changes to the airframe. The RCS problem is an airframe one and the J-16 has already made as much effort as economically viable on reducing RCS. You just can't hide the weapons or the engines with this design. I don't see how the J-11D can be much better than what the J-11BG and J-16 are already unless they include integrated TVC or intending to integrate WS-15 engines. The idea of the J-11D is increasingly pointless now when the focus should be forward. Flankers will continue to be "upgraded" and built in dianzhi versions of J-15 and J-16 along with more J-15 (newer blocks) and J-16s.
The only worthwhile idea is to pursue some equivalent missile truck idea similar in concept to the F-15EX. However it will demand much better engines so unless the flanker frame can eventually use WS-15s and have the internal fuel capacity to make the whole program worthwhile, the missile truck role may be delegated to the replacement JH program. So the entire idea now rests on WS-15 and using it on a future flanker. Even then there's going to be considerations on fuel and range because they would need to balance the heavy A2A missile load with range, speed, and altitude performance. The F-15EX does this because the design is just more suited for this role - high speed high altitude and a pair of excellent engines. The latest WS-10s may be up for this job but we don't know if the airframe design actually is suited.
I think the PLAAF may be far more inclined at spending development money on 6th gen and sharp sword wingman. While the JH-xx program is probably going to include the role of the missile truck. Therefore any more entirely new flanker variant is going to be unlikely.
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