plawolf
Lieutenant General
Trump doesn’t have the patience or stomach for a real war with China, and frankly, neither does the US have the raw capabilities to try to take China’s SCS islands without bringing pretty much their entire navy, and even then they will most likely loose a significant portion of that force even if they do manage to win in the end.
If Trump is stupid enough to actually try to engineer a military clash with China to try to score cheap domestic political points to boost his election prospects, it would be pretty much the same as the trade war, with him biting off way more than he can chew. So he will declare victory even when he is loosing and just bug out.
The SCS is basically a death trap for any attacking naval force because China’s island bases are in effect unsinkable carriers that can be used to launch fighters, drones; host lots of defensive and offensive missiles; and become a Homebase for swarms of PLAN 022 FACs and 056 corvettes.
Back this up with the bulk of the PLAN’s surface and sub fleet as well as air cover from mainland China and neighbouring bases and its just the most dangerous place any naval fleet could hope to operate. I would say the SCS is even more dangerous for the USN to fight in than Taiwan.
With Taiwan the USN would have to operate closer to mainland China, but they would have Taiwan itself as a massive buffer and early warning system, which will make it much harder for mainland based fighters and missiles to try to strike at the USN fleet. On top of that you have all of China’s seaboard as potential targets that could massively pin down the PLAN and PLAAF’s forces to try to defend if Trump is willing to go full thug and spam missiles at Chinese cities at random.
In the SCS, China hasn’t put anything on those islands it itself prepared to loose, the USN can spam missiles all they want. They might take out some SAMs, AAA and AShM launchers, but it will be costly for them, most likely far more so in terms of munitions, money and lives, than what the PLA looses.
If Trump does fight in the SCS, it would be because doing so would allow him to declare victory and pull out pretty much any time he wants. In a Taiwan scenario, it would be more advantageous tactically for the USN, but that is not a fight the UA could just walk away from as doing so would mean China would immediately retake Taiwan and suddenly the entire first island chain is gone.
If India is stupid enough to jump on that bandwagon, I don’t think China would be interested in half measures after it has seen off the USN and turns it’s full focus on India.
If Trump is stupid enough to actually try to engineer a military clash with China to try to score cheap domestic political points to boost his election prospects, it would be pretty much the same as the trade war, with him biting off way more than he can chew. So he will declare victory even when he is loosing and just bug out.
The SCS is basically a death trap for any attacking naval force because China’s island bases are in effect unsinkable carriers that can be used to launch fighters, drones; host lots of defensive and offensive missiles; and become a Homebase for swarms of PLAN 022 FACs and 056 corvettes.
Back this up with the bulk of the PLAN’s surface and sub fleet as well as air cover from mainland China and neighbouring bases and its just the most dangerous place any naval fleet could hope to operate. I would say the SCS is even more dangerous for the USN to fight in than Taiwan.
With Taiwan the USN would have to operate closer to mainland China, but they would have Taiwan itself as a massive buffer and early warning system, which will make it much harder for mainland based fighters and missiles to try to strike at the USN fleet. On top of that you have all of China’s seaboard as potential targets that could massively pin down the PLAN and PLAAF’s forces to try to defend if Trump is willing to go full thug and spam missiles at Chinese cities at random.
In the SCS, China hasn’t put anything on those islands it itself prepared to loose, the USN can spam missiles all they want. They might take out some SAMs, AAA and AShM launchers, but it will be costly for them, most likely far more so in terms of munitions, money and lives, than what the PLA looses.
If Trump does fight in the SCS, it would be because doing so would allow him to declare victory and pull out pretty much any time he wants. In a Taiwan scenario, it would be more advantageous tactically for the USN, but that is not a fight the UA could just walk away from as doing so would mean China would immediately retake Taiwan and suddenly the entire first island chain is gone.
If India is stupid enough to jump on that bandwagon, I don’t think China would be interested in half measures after it has seen off the USN and turns it’s full focus on India.
