Ladakh Flash Point

twineedle said:

Well that is the thing. None of us know exactly what Adm. Davidson meant. However if he meant to say China captured or is occupying territory previously controlled of claimed by India, why didn't he simply say that? If anything,, saying that would put pressure on the Indian gov. to not improve relations with China and continue supporting the US on quad, etc, rather than going back to non allignment. I am simply saying that what he said corroborates the Indian MOD statement and the various maps and satellite images used by Indian and non-Indian analysts.

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Who claimed he is implying something?
You did.
Now you conveniently roll around where you fell.

That admiralmightve meant something but you are insisting that he meant China seized its own territory and that threatened India - enough to make it go kill violating border agreements.


Bold 2: have been said here before.

Bold 3: Indian MOD has issues with China occupying its own territory and building infrastructure?

Why not other regions? Why specifically Hot springs?

twineedle said:

And satellite imagery has debunked Shukla's claims, by showing China does not have any camp at the location where Shukla claims it does. Will once again post images from after the initial July disengagement.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1280492419407122433

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1281829922168659969

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This is what Shukla claims regarding disengagement -
Galwan
(end result - India forced to move back LAC)


Hot Springs and Gogra


end result - Indian patrols beyond PP17A getting challenged. Border disengagement made a buffer zone of 2km but within the patrol zone of India.


No evidences till now to prove it otherwise.

@twineedle Come straight to the point. State your claims clear.

China has only renewed its claims and will push further Inwards shall future conflict arise.
Indian setbacks at Galwan and Hot Springs are minor affairs.

Pangong Tso disenagement, by the whole nature, isn't a win for China (for whom winning means gaining absolutely). Maybe India has a different concept of winning.

All this because India is apparently afraid of China building infrastructure and Indian right wing government initiating a conflict for the benefit of domestic and International politics.

Internationally, they would gain recognition as sepoys of West (they have experience). A China confronting Trump administration, Trade wars, geopolitical hostility and coronavirus all presented the ideal chance for India to strike.

Has any one of us here actually got a clear idea/picture of Chinese and Indian positions and occupation is Demchok, Gogra HS?

Xsizor said:

China has only renewed its claims and will push further Inwards shall future conflict arise.
Indian setbacks at Galwan and Hot Springs are minor affairs.

Pangong Tso disenagement, by the whole nature, isn't a win for China (for whom winning means gaining absolutely). Maybe India has a different concept of winning.

All this because India is apparently afraid of China building infrastructure and Indian right wing government initiating a conflict for the benefit of domestic and International politics.

Internationally, they would gain recognition as sepoys of West (they have experience). A China confronting Trump administration, Trade wars, geopolitical hostility and coronavirus all presented the ideal chance for India to strike.

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Many in India (Jai Hinds) call Pangong a win for it because they want to ignore all pre-PLA occupation history and only consider PLA disengaging. A leaf on the tree and missing the forest.

It's beyond short sighted but they do like soothing themselves as evidenced by Indian internet opinions and attitudes.

China hasn't called it a win but I will say it as it is. If a win needs to be awarded for Pangong, the net balance favour's China especially if PLA road remains. Of course this road can be used by IA to push forward to F8 and beyond as well lol. It just helps PLA more in "peacetime" to get access to F4 quickly in case things flare up. If China always had F4 to F8, how come the drama and crisis? The Ladakh stand off happened because PLA went so far into what India increasingly patrolled. Some Jai Hinds are already pretending China always held F4 to F8. The goalpost movers failing to realise the game isn't about self-defined changing goals but the actual positions.

Then consider not just the context but the fact that China occupied it successfully and demonstrated that India is unable to move PLA without shooting. Shooting leads to war though which they themselves understand they cannot win.

There's also Demchok and Gogra even mentions of Depsang despite that being kept quiet in the past until Modi could not deny.

ougoah said:

Has any one of us here actually got a clear idea/picture of Chinese and Indian positions and occupation is Demchok, Gogra HS?

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Well, the only recent ones are those submitted by @twineedle.

The images are reported to be from March 1, 2021,


What I could infer -

1. Indian post at PP17A.
2. Chinese posts near and Armored divisions at PP19.

3. A 15km area sperating the two. (This 15km has been previously patrolled by India)

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@ougoah Ideally, in order to draw a conclusion that a confrontation is not happening within the patrol zones of India, India ought to have a post at PP19.

A satellite image that shows Indian patrols to PP19 or post near PP19 would mean that India hasn't been forced to shift the LAC. But this March 1,2021 imagery doesn't show that.

Therefore, Aji Shukla hasn't been proved wrong.

Xsizor said:

Well, the only recent ones are those submitted by @twineedle.

The images are reported to be from March 1, 2021,
View attachment 69925

What I could infer -

1. Indian post at PP17A.
2. Chinese posts near and Armored divisions at PP19.

3.A 15km area sperating the two. (This 15km has been patrolled by India)

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At Gogra, this shows PLA on the blue line, not even intruding beyond. If accurate, then there should be no fuss or noise about this.

Demchok is a mystery still is it?

ougoah said:

At Gogra, this shows PLA on the blue line, not even intruding beyond. If accurate, then there should be no fuss or noise about this.

Demchok is a mystery still is it?

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Yes. PLA is not intruding (through posts)
But Ajai Shukla doesn't say PLA is intruding by building posts. He says that Indian patrols were getting challenged past PP17A (Gogra).

And as per initial disengagement,

@ougoah
You see that 15km gap between the posts?
There is a buffer zone in that gap (apparently).

Satellite images can't show buffer zones other than through time-lapse.

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What I believe is this -

India doesn't want China to have a post near PP19. This effectively means that India wants the buffer zone to be equal distance from PP19, thus cementing its perception of LAC.

Xsizor said:

Yes. PLA is not intruding (through posts)
But Ajai Shukla doesn't say PLA is intruding by building posts. He says that Indian patrols were getting challenged past PP17A (Gogra).

And as per initial disengagement, View attachment 69927

@ougoah
You see that 15km gap between the posts?
There is a buffer zone in that gap (apparently).

Satellite images can't show buffer zones other than through time-lapse.

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What I believe is this -

India doesn't want China to have a post near PP19. This effectively means that India wants the buffer zone to be equal distance from PP19, thus cementing its perception of LAC.

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China has always held those positions. The PLA denies Indian forward patrols just like they did in Pangong. I doubt IA will be doing that many patrols right up to LAC lest they consider the possibility of PLA action again. Why some like Shukla choose to consider these things something like sacred Indian land is the inverse part of that headless chicken routine. Just like Jai Hind narratives actually support Chinese positions, Sukhla and co are militantly pro India in gaining land and calling all PLA contol an invasion of India when at worst, it is a struggle over disputed parts and always has been. None of this stuff is sacred to either and many lives lost over it.

The positions in Gogra HS to me seem like the old post war positions. China is not advancing further in. If the situation is a similar thing at Demchok, then India has nothing to complain about. Both sides should behave like China, stop talking about it and carry on with "new" status quo which basically centre around the post PLA occupation Pangong - proper buffer being observed.

ougoah said:

China has always held those positions. The PLA denies Indian forward patrols just like they did in Pangong. I doubt IA will be doing that many patrols right up to LAC lest they consider the possibility of PLA action again. Why some like Shukla choose to consider these things something like sacred Indian land is like an inverse part of that headless chicken routine. Just like Jai Hind narratives actually support Chinese positions, Sukhla and co are militantly pro India in gaining land and calling all PLA contol an invasion of India when at worst, it is a struggle over disputed parts and always has been. None of this stuff is sacred to either and many lives lost over it.

The positions in Gogra HS to me seem like the old post war positions. China is not advancing further in. If the situation is a similar thing at Demchok, then India has nothing to complain about. Both sides should behave like China, stop talking about it and carry on with "new" status quo which basically centre around the post PLA occupation Pangong - proper buffer being observed.

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Exactly.

You might also have to consider the statements of Indian government as well as that US Admiral.

"China... forward positions... Seized...Intial conflict".

Ajai Shukla is one of the most pro-Indian people out there. I've noticed how he always takes an uncompromising view of things. Sometimes it is better to have a Jai-Hind than people like Ajai Shukla. Atleast the former would take in whatever they got and convert it into a win.

The latter just keeps pushing.