It's been doing that since it was founded but still hasn't collapsed because no other foreign power can get to it
With the rise of the internet and immigration we may finally have a chance to see the balkanisation of the US.
Korean War 70 years later Win Lose and A draw
- Thread starter TerraN_EmpirE
- Start date
With the rise of the internet and immigration we may finally have a chance to see the balkanisation of the US.
Does you really want the US to slide into civil war?
Best for the US to be left alone.
Then it can decline gracefully and peacefully.
Crazies like Gordon Chang are dumb, because the Chinese economy isn't doomed. But it's still facing significant headwinds and the next phase can't simply be business as usual, but requires economic and social transformation.
You are assuming that the Chinese economy will grow endlessly, when the 2020s are a key risk and the US seems likely to be able to lock the Chinese out of many export markets. The present predicted rate of growth, beyond the exception of 2021, will be 5.5% and 4.5% in the coming 14 years. The US gets around 2-3%. Or, in other words, you're looking at about 2% growth compared to the US economy. To become 3x larger than the US economy, even if the Chinese economy reaches parity, it'll still take 56 years.
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There are significant problems for the Chinese economy / society / polity. These problems are not insurmountable, but they present real risks. To an extent, Sino-American competition could be conceived of as a game of chicken between two speeding cars, with the winner being the one that crashes second.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
You are reading too much into western MSM garbage. Export is such small component of Chinese GDP less than 14% out of it the export to america make less than 30%. China now trade more with Asean and Belt and road countries than with US. You have unrealistic wish list projecting and assuming growth rate that is unrealistic.
China growth will be driven by internal consumption when you look at car ownership. Chinese market is far from saturated something like only 40% of Chinese consumer own a car vs 95% in more developed countries.so million more Chinese need to buy car over the next year. That is why China is the largest producer of car and in the next iteration IC engine will be outdated. And China will take a lead in NE car complete with their own supply line.
Ditto with real estate and home ownership in China which is still remote from saturation. Million still need to be moved to better housing.
Those 2 industries alone with their attending supply industries make the largest portion of GDP! And go know what other event can trip US or western growth did we even forecast Covid? Yeah those western analyst are drinking too much cool aid!
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Internal consumption is risky when it comes to China; China's had growth levels of roughly 5% of GDP in terms of household debt to GDP as of late; the implication is that within 7-8 years, China will reach South Korea-like levels of consumer debt, which is clearly unsustainable.
Moreover, exports are superior to internal consumption as a way to grow the economy. Consider the failure of import substitution in many Latin American countries, or the fact that most successfully developed countries were export dependent during their period of high growth. China's exports as a percentage of GDP roughly amounts to 17% of GDP, not the sub 14% you've stated.
You should also consider that the United States and the EU make up, individually, roughly 20% of Chinese exports or 40% total. Roughly 40-50% of Chinese exports are to non-aligned countries, so the US stuffing sanctions on China, as it seems to be aiming to do, can be strongly destabilizing in terms of exports.
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On an economics front, roughly, China has issues with high corporate debt levels, an aging population, and a current failure to control the commanding technological heights. This is important, since for China, basic capital accumulation is there, and further growth has to be accounted for by TFP growth, which is both organizational and technological.
Moreover, exports are superior to internal consumption as a way to grow the economy. Consider the failure of import substitution in many Latin American countries, or the fact that most successfully developed countries were export dependent during their period of high growth. China's exports as a percentage of GDP roughly amounts to 17% of GDP, not the sub 14% you've stated.
You should also consider that the United States and the EU make up, individually, roughly 20% of Chinese exports or 40% total. Roughly 40-50% of Chinese exports are to non-aligned countries, so the US stuffing sanctions on China, as it seems to be aiming to do, can be strongly destabilizing in terms of exports.
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On an economics front, roughly, China has issues with high corporate debt levels, an aging population, and a current failure to control the commanding technological heights. This is important, since for China, basic capital accumulation is there, and further growth has to be accounted for by TFP growth, which is both organizational and technological.
Come on guys this is a Korean war thread. We have a thread for Chinese economics. Please carryvon there.
Their sacrifice bought China time and peaceful existence. Our sincere and eternal gratitude for these young heros.
Chinese PVA Soldier with a Thompson captures an American Soldier with another deceased American on the ground. Unknown date
A Chinese PVA Soldier kindly persuades a U.S Officer to exit his trench with his M1 Carbine.
A digitally enhanced photo of ROK Soldiers on the North western islands of Korea surrendering to Chinese Soldiers. 1951. You can read more about the Chinese perspective of this battle here:
Another source that talks about this battle from a western perspective is this:
A Chinese PVA Soldier kindly persuades a U.S Officer to exit his trench with his M1 Carbine.
A digitally enhanced photo of ROK Soldiers on the North western islands of Korea surrendering to Chinese Soldiers. 1951. You can read more about the Chinese perspective of this battle here:
Another source that talks about this battle from a western perspective is this: