Jeff Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

timepass said:

How pathetic

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What? Your pretending to know better than the US intelligence community and lumping them together as a monolithic institution of preconceived ineptitude?

J-XX said:

Without having further information for what? Type 095?

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Yes

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

J-XX said:

I was going to say the same thing and many more examples of just how incompetent these intelligence communities are.
Quite frankly anyone can say 'oh I have connections in the intelligence community' and say 'I know the capabilities of this and that'. Doesn't prove anything.

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So are you saying that US government attacked on Iraq & killed several thousand people based on intelligence communities self created hypes or are you trying to cover up CIA’s dirty work & conspiracies.

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

I would also guess that the 095 is somewhere between early and late 688 class. IMO we will have to wait for the next class (097?) to achieve somewhere between 688I and Seawolf/Virginia, or perhaps even equal to them; after all Seawolf technology is now over two decades old. By that time the USN may already have something even quieter.

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

Mysterre said:

I would also guess that the 095 is somewhere between early and late 688 class. IMO we will have to wait for the next class (097?) to achieve somewhere between 688I and Seawolf/Virginia, or perhaps even equal to them; after all Seawolf technology is now over two decades old. By that time the USN may already have something even quieter.

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If the US can afford it. By then the Chinese economy will be larger than the US economy. China will have closed the technology gap with the west by 2025.

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

timepass said:

Jeff – we all still remember the WMD in Iraq propaganda of CIA.

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What propoganda?

1st, we know that Iraq had WMDs, they used them on their own people and in the Iraq-Iran War.

In terms of nuclear research, we know they were doing that too.

In terms of having a nuclear weapon, or almost having one, virtually every western intelligence agency and other non western ones said the same things. Apparently, they were wrong. Or, Sadam had enough time to dispose of whatever he had. I think it was probably both. He probably had more than we found, but he didn't have as much as we thought.

That does not mean they were lieing. No more than when you or I are wrong on something that we have honest opinions about...even if we base those opinions on the best available information.

It happens, even in the intelligence communities. But again, I will say that they get things right much more often than they get things wrong.

You can either believe that or not...it's up to you. But whatever you believe, try to base it on much more than what the press or politicians say...because they too have been proven, time and again, to have their own agendas. And many times those agendas get confused whith what is going on with the professionals who are actually in the intelligence community trying to do their job.

Anyhow, time will tell well enough regarding my own obesevations, which I feel are pretty modest in any case as far as the great issues of the day go. There's no need for poster to come on here and try and either discredit or be uncivil. I have made it plain all along that this is what I think, based on the finormation and sources I have explained...not what is fact, or absolute sure knowledge of something like the Type 095.

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

Jeff Head said:

What propoganda?

1st, we know that Iraq had WMDs, they used them on their own people and in the Iraq-Iran War.

In terms of nuclear research, we know they were doing that too.

In terms of having a nuclear weapon, or almost having one, virtually every western intelligence agency and other non western ones said the same things. Apparently, they were wrong. Or, Sadam had enough time to dispose of whatever he had. I think it was probably both. He probably had more than we found, but he didn't have as much as we thought.

That does not mean they were lieing. No more than when you or I are wrong on something that we have honest opinions about...even if we base those opinions on the best available information.

It happens, even in the intelligence communities. But again, I will say that they get things right much more often than they get things wrong.

You can either believe that or not...it's up to you. But whatever you believe, try to base it on much more than what the press or politicians say...because they too have been proven, time and again, to have their own agendas. And many times those agendas get confused whith what is going on with the professionals who are actually in the intelligence community trying to do their job.

Anyhow, time will tell well enough regarding my own obesevations, which I feel are pretty modest in any case as far as the great issues of the day go. There's no need for poster to come on here and try and either discredit or be uncivil. I have made it plain all along that this is what I think, based on the finormation and sources I have explained...not what is fact, or absolute sure knowledge of something like the Type 095.

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Nice try to Justify CIA’s dirty work & conspiracies.

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

J-XX said:

China will have closed the technology gap with the west by 2025.

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We shall see about that. The one thing that does help China is that newer technology has tended to give diminishing returns, such that more time and money is spent on producing lesser and lesser gains as the level of technology increases. Assuming trends continue as they are, China will eventually catch up; the only question is when, and this is open to anyone's guess.

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

Great update Jeff! Many points of development put nicely together. But maybe You should proof-read it couple more times. There is something wrong in almost every sentence. I know my english is far from correct, at least in written text, but as a reader I can point out even the mistakes I make. Sadly, that is always too little too late...

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

gorthaur said:

Great update Jeff! Many points of development put nicely together. But maybe You should proof-read it couple more times. There is something wrong in almost every sentence. I know my english is far from correct, at least in written text, but as a reader I can point out even the mistakes I make. Sadly, that is always too little too late... .

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Thanks for the reply and the advise. I sufferf from the same malady and it usually takes me a couple of months to finally go through the whole report and weed out all the typos, mis-spellings, and other gramtical errors. But that's fine. It's a interest and hobby of mine...not a paying job. Anyhow, thanks for you words and advise, I'll try and take both into account.

timepass said:

Nice try to Justify CIA’s dirty work & conspiracies.

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No justification...just a simple statement of fact. Some people have always had an axe to grind against intelligence communities and the agencies conducting the work. Nothing new there....but a straw man statement, and an overly generlized and broad statement at that, like their "dirty work and conspiriacies," is an easy way to patently display bias, without really saying anything specific at all.

That's fine, happens all the time...but that is precisely what it is. I gave you a reasoned and demonstrable answer. You did not like it or believe it, and so throw out the pat phrase. No skin off my back...we have both stated our beliefs and reasoning and I am happy to let others read, research and judge for themselves.

Re: Jef Head's 2013 Report on the PLAN

Discussions about what intelligence services know and what their assessments are meaningless, since nobody outside rather secluded circles have valid information about that.

To take at face-value what the press, even the most serious press, says about intelligence assessments is frivolous, as these assessments are never meant for the general public.