Japan economics thread.

Staedler

Junior Member
Registered Member
You are assuming that all countries would always perform equally good. If that was true, how would you explain that Japan once surpassed China then?

Population size isn't the only factor that determines GDP.
Japan was already a mostly industrialized state with majority literate population when it got an enormous amount of capital and favorable trade agreements as a result of the Korean war. They also got skipped over during the majority of the overt imperialism phase due to the focus on China and was free to industrialize at their own pace.

Meanwhile China was in a constant state of civil war for the better part of a century, had no real industry to speak of, and the proportion of literate people in the country at the time never reached double digits percentages. Also had a problem with opium addiction and massive war reparations imposed by the imperialist powers.

Japan surpassing China was caused by a historical anomaly, one that we are still feeling the effects of today. It takes time to recover even after the initial conditions are resolved. For example, Japan didn't become industrialized overnight after the Meiji Restoration. It still holds true that as long as China was able to industrialize to some extent, China would have always surpassed Japan due to population size. China didn't need to be even equally good to attain that result.

Hell look at India vs Japan. India is rapidly closing the gap with Japan and India isn't well-run by any stretch of the imagination.
 

KYli

Brigadier
Yen collapse forcing Japan to reopen sooner even with the fact that the hospitals have been overwhelmed with covid patients.
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Trade deficit hitting record.
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The bank of Japan is buying 3.8 billion dollar of bonds to keep the 10 years bond yield under 0.25.
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More stimulus even after record debts.
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Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
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GT Voice: Japan’s faltering economy can’t afford to follow US decoupling

By Global Times Published: Sep 21, 2022 01:26 AM

A bullet train heads for Tokyo following its departure from JR Sendai Station in Sendai, northeastern Japan on April 14, 2022. East Japan Railway Co the same day resumed services on the entire Tohoku Shinkansen line, nearly a month after a powerful earthquake hit the country's northeast and derailed one of its bullet trains. Photo: VCG

A bullet train heads for Tokyo. Photo: VCG

Due to the Japanese yen's sharp depreciation, Japan's nominal GDP denominated in US dollar terms is likely to shrink significantly to below $4 trillion this year, falling back to a level last seen 30 years ago, the Nikkei reported on Monday.

Over the past three decades, great changes have taken place across the global economic landscape. In dollar terms, the Chinese economy has grown 20-fold, the US has recorded a threefold increase, but the Japanese economy is falling back to where it was 30 years ago. The severe challenges and difficulties faced by the Japanese economy pose a serious question for Japan's political elites as to how long they will allow an economic and trade agenda rife with "Cold War" mentality continue to drag down the economy.

Specifically, the Japanese economy is facing such challenges as depreciation of the yen, record trade deficit and soaring energy costs. Although Japan's economy and financial markets are closely linked to the US, Japan's central bank failed to follow the US Federal Reserve's rate hikes, leading to the continuous depreciation in the yen against the dollar.

While the Bank of Japan's intention to stimulate the economy and avoid a prolonged period of deflation is understandable, the fact that the ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policies that have been implemented over the past eight years have failed to boost the economy is sufficient to indicate the vulnerability of the Japanese economy.

At such a difficult time, strengthened economic and trade ties with China would help if Japan wants to revive its economy. Yet, the Japanese government, under so-called economic security considerations, has appeared more enthusiastic than ever to align itself with the US in terms of regional geopolitical and economic issues, at the expense of its economic ties with China.

It is no secret that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government has been aggressively promoting the so-called economic security concept, with the Japanese parliament in May passing an economic security bill aimed at guarding technology and reinforcing critical supply chains.

Some in Japan believe that seizing every opportunity to strengthen cooperation with the US and other technologically advanced countries will deliver it more advantages in the face of the so-called "economic security threats" from China. However, a more likely outcome could be that Japan's misguided approach may end up hurting its own economy and that of the region.

For Japan, the chance to be one of the economic rule-makers with the US in the region may seem tempting, but Japan should not ignore the fact that anyone can be hurt by the hegemony of rules that prioritize American interests.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. After half a century of ups and downs, fruitful results have been seen across bilateral economic and trade cooperation. China has been Japan's largest trading partner for 15 years in a row, with trade with China accounting for more than 20 percent of Japan's foreign trade. Bilateral trade in 2021 reached an all-time high of $371.4 billion.

Objectively speaking, with such a strong complementary trade structure between the two countries, it is necessary for Japan to maintain its basic policy rationality and strategic independence based on its own interests and those of the region. There should be rational boundaries to safeguarding potential economic risks, instead of politicizing economic cooperation to provoke confrontation.

If Japan blindly follows the US in "economic and technological decoupling" from China, it will not only seriously affect the stable development of China-Japan relations but also derail the Asia-Pacific economic integration to a large extent, which will also deprive Japan of further opportunities in benefiting from regional economic upgrade. The faltering Japanese economy cannot afford such dire consequences.
 

KYli

Brigadier
As Japan getting poorer and poorer and older and older, its government is mainly focusing on increasing its defense budget and raising taxes. No wonder Japan has no future and hope. Without the so called Japan worshipers, Japan descent would be much quicker and faster. But if Japan auto industry can't compete in EV sector, then I foresee in the not distant future Japan would be much poorer and could be the first Asian nation to go from advance nation status to mid-higher income status.
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